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Thread: newtobj: losing sessions

  1. #1
    newtobj
    Guest

    newtobj: losing sessions

    It has now been several months since I had a winning session. To anyone out there, what is the longest you have gone without a winning session? Have you experienced the opposite, a long period of time with nothing but winning sessions?

  2. #2
    Ploppy Talk
    Guest

    Ploppy Talk: I once never lost for FOUR months.

    Yep, that's the truth...never lost for FOUR months.

    However, I only played 3 times!

    > It has now been several months since I had a
    > winning session. To anyone out there, what
    > is the longest you have gone without a
    > winning session? Have you experienced the
    > opposite, a long period of time with nothing
    > but winning sessions?

  3. #3
    Count of Montecristo
    Guest

    Count of Montecristo: Re: losing sessions

    How many sessions have you had in those several months? I've gone six sessions in a row without a win but on the flipside, I just came off my all time best 15 consecutive winning sessions before losing my last one.
    Make sure you're not making mistakes counting. Practice on one of the computer sims to see if you're overbetting or not keeping the correct count, or ramping your bets wrong. If you only play once a month and haven't won in 3 months, then I wouldn't worry too much about it.

    > It has now been several months since I had a
    > winning session. To anyone out there, what
    > is the longest you have gone without a
    > winning session? Have you experienced the
    > opposite, a long period of time with nothing
    > but winning sessions?

  4. #4
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Define "session," please *NM*


  5. #5
    newtobj
    Guest

    newtobj: Re: Define "session," please

    A single playing session. Usually about an hour or two.

  6. #6
    newtobj
    Guest

    newtobj: Re: losing sessions

    > How many sessions have you had in those
    > several months? I've gone six sessions in a
    > row without a win but on the flipside, I
    > just came off my all time best 15
    > consecutive winning sessions before losing
    > my last one.

    It is good to know that a long streak of winning sessions can occur and last as long as the current streak of losing sessions that I am currently experiencing. It has been about 6 months since I had a winning session, playing 2 times a month.

  7. #7
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: Define "session," please

    > A single playing session. Usually about an
    > hour or two.

    Actually, if you played twice a month for six months, that would be 12 consecutive losing sessions. If you're about a 47% shot to lose a one-hour session, then losing 12 in a row is about 0.47^12 = 0.0001161, or an occurrence that happens about once every 8,613 times.

    I'd say that you've had some horrible luck.

    Don

  8. #8
    Ed Tice
    Guest

    Ed Tice: Re: losing sessions

    I've had times where I played 2-3 times a week for three or four hours (I am a low enough stakes player to do this), and didn't lose a single big bet. In fact, I started questioning my sims. I was just winning too much, too fast. I was three standard deviations above my expected value.

    Not wanting to get kicked out of my local games (there weren't that many of them at the time), I started playing more and more craps for cover. But I couldn't lose at that either! So I tried roulette. Everytime I bet on red, it came up. It was just unbelievable!

    I've also had times when its all I could do to get myself to put my big bets out, because I couldn't remember the last time that one of them had won.

    In fact I can remember finally having a winning night. I had seen no positive counts. All the shoes had gone negative (so, of course, I had won a lot of small bets, and then Wonged out). I was happy to walk away with a profit of any sort.

    The "session" is an arbitrary concept. We tend to count our bankroll after each session, so the arbitrary unit seems natural to us. But the reality is that our whole lives are just one long session.

    Thats not to say that we should undervalue the psychological effect of session wins/losses. Or their affects on our player's cards (if we aren't playing anonymously).

    If i have a nice win, even if its just lucky (won a streak of small bets), I will stop to enjoy the feeling of being a winner. If I lose a LOT (100 units), I will also take a few weeks off playind and will go back to trying to improve my game at home (play against the computer, try to learn some side-counts, read a few more books, memorize more indices).

    Mathematically (assuming I'm playing a winning game), this is sub-optimal and one should try to maximimze the number of hours played.

    But we are psychological beings. And if we are feeling bad, we don't always perform well. Most of us (msyelf included) are doing this for fun, not as a profession. So if you can structure your "sessions" in a way that increases your fun, that is sensible to me.

    Just make sure you're playing a winning game. Use sims. Simulate what you *do*, not what you *want* to do. Don't simulate a 20:1 spread and then only play 10:1 hoping its enough. If you put in your simulator that you are using certain indices, make sure you are using them. If you remember the value of an index but forget to calculate before playing your hands and just mak the BS move, you are losing EV. You can still win this way. But if your play doesn't match your sims, you cant be sure of a winning game.

    Make sure you are getting enough $ on the table to be winning. Don't put too much empasis on not getting backed off. I'd rather win and get backed off than lose and be welcome. I'm not saying not to be obnoxious. But if you are playing shoes and your plan calls for a 12:1 spread, you've got to get 12 chips out there. If your sim says you have a 0.5% advantage at 1:12 spread, dont second guess yourself at the table and settle for 1:10.

    I play places (Europe) where they have chips valued at $5, $10, and $50 only. No $25 chips. Since I dont jump my bets (which is the only real camo that I employ), I end up parlaying my bets a lot by stacking the winnings on top of the original bet. They usually pay me off in the same chip denominations (A bet of 8x$10 chips gets 8 $10 chips.)

    Whenever I lose a bet, I put the "right" amount. I much prefer when betting $100 to put 2x$50 than 10x$10. But I often find myself without the right denominations for doing that. I never like looking at that huge barber-pole in my betting square (they are squared here, not circles), but thats how it goes!

    We dont have backofsf here, just half-shoeing. But when penetration goes from 5/6 to 3/6, its pretty obvious you've been made (although the pits stay friendly!), but its still better to play a few more shoes and leave with their $ than it is to be a welcome loser.

    If you evaluate your play and you're sure that its winning, just keep going for it. Maybe get a bit more aggressive.

    If your play evaluation concludes that your plan isn't good enough or you just aren't playing up to your plans, make adjustments and go get your money back from the casino.

    As the Gamemaster says. When you lose, the casino will take good care of your money, and you can go win it back later!

    Ed

    > It has now been several months since I had a
    > winning session. To anyone out there, what
    > is the longest you have gone without a
    > winning session? Have you experienced the
    > opposite, a long period of time with nothing
    > but winning sessions?

  9. #9
    Sun Runner
    Guest

    Sun Runner: Idiotic

    Me .. not you.

    > .. you're about a 47% shot to lose a one-hour session

    OK, I've never seen this before. If you have time to elaborate, please do. No doubt it's a basic principle, but thankfully we are on the Beginners Page.

    Where/how is this type stat developed. I can't believe I have never heard that.

    Is it a 47% chance of losing any session or only a one hour session?

    If the former, what is the % chance of losing a two hour or three hour session?

    Is this something easily calc'ed or did you read it somewhere? [ ]

    Thanks.

  10. #10
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Homework assignment ...

    > Me .. not you.

    > OK, I've never seen this before. If you have
    > time to elaborate, please do. No doubt it's
    > a basic principle, but thankfully we are on
    > the Beginners Page.

    > Where/how is this type stat developed. I
    > can't believe I have never heard that.

    > Is it a 47% chance of losing any session or
    > only a one hour session?

    > If the former, what is the % chance of
    > losing a two hour or three hour session?

    > Is this something easily calc'ed or did you
    > read it somewhere? [ ]

    Assuming you have the book, go to BJA2, pp. 22-24, and especially Table 2.2, on the top of p. 24.

    Don

  11. #11
    Sun Runner
    Guest

    Sun Runner: Of course I have it ..

    .. and am looking forward to an autographed one of BJA3.

    > Assuming you have the book, go to BJA2, pp.
    > 22-24, and especially Table 2.2, on the top
    > of p. 24.

    .. and I'll read it again!

    Thanks as always.


  12. #12
    methodman
    Guest

    methodman: if you were up..

    > and did not quit then its called
    discipline which is very tough at times. Of course all books say keep playing with your advantage..
    but hell, I will take a win anytime.
    Take some time off buddy.

    Toobad the mental pit crew thinks we always win,
    all they look for is fellows jumping their
    bets and there is so much more to look for...

  13. #13
    Sun Runner
    Guest

    Sun Runner: Re: Homework assignment ...

    " ... if you're about a 47% shot to lose a one-hour session, then losing 12 in a row is about 0.47^12 = 0.0001161, or an occurrence that happens about once every 8,613 times." -DS

    > Assuming you have the book, go to BJA2, pp.
    > 22-24, and especially Table 2.2, on the top
    > of p. 24.

    Previously you gave me the answer (above) to the probability of losing 12 one hour sessions in a row.

    Why is losing 12 one hour sessions any more unlikely than losing one twelve hour session?

    The table referenced above shows the probability of losing after one hour of play to be 47%. The table also shows the probability of losing after twelve hours of play to be between 41% and 38% .. lets call it 40%.

    It seems NEWTOBJ should not feel as unlucky as 1 / 8,613 would indicate?

    Signed -

    Totally Confused On This Issue!

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