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Thread: Luis: Progressive Betting with Card Counting

  1. #1
    Luis
    Guest

    Luis: Progressive Betting with Card Counting

    Can Progressive Betting be of much use when used in conjunction with card counting. i.e. only parlaying bets when the TC is +. Or does it send your RoR thru the roof?

  2. #2
    Parker
    Guest

    Parker: Slightly

    > Can Progressive Betting be of much use when
    > used in conjunction with card counting. i.e.
    > only parlaying bets when the TC is +. Or
    > does it send your RoR thru the roof?

    This can be useful, but strictly for cover purposes. Pit bosses love progressionists.

    It is important to realize that all you are actually doing is using a less-than-optimal betting strategy, so EV will decrease, while variance and ROR will increase.

  3. #3
    sam
    Guest

    sam: Re: Slightly

    I've just finished reading Knockout Blackjack. Are your comments about EV, variance, and ROR increasing in a betting progression pertinent to the six deck betting progression that KO recommends? Beginning at -4 with 2 units and progressing to 10 units at +4 and up. Thanks.

    Sam
    > This can be useful, but strictly for cover
    > purposes. Pit bosses love progressionists.

    > It is important to realize that all you are
    > actually doing is using a less-than-optimal
    > betting strategy, so EV will decrease, while
    > variance and ROR will increase.

  4. #4
    Dancer
    Guest

    Dancer: Re: Slightly

    > I've just finished reading Knockout
    > Blackjack. Are your comments about EV,
    > variance, and ROR increasing in a betting
    > progression pertinent to the six deck
    > betting progression that KO recommends?
    > Beginning at -4 with 2 units and progressing
    > to 10 units at +4 and up. Thanks.

    > Sam

    What you're talking about is a bet ramp. Under normal conditions, you increase your bet size as the count rises -- just like your book mentions.

    A betting progression is different. It's like doubling your last bet (or parlaying, etc) regardless of whether the count has reached a level sufficient to justify the higher bet -- as long as the count is at or above -4 (in your example).

    As Parker states, it affects your RoR (among other things). The danger is that you can easily overbet your bankroll.

    Let's say your count reaches -4. You bet 2 units -- and win. If the count stays at -4, using the progression model, you'd parlay your bet to 4 units. If you win again, you'd go to 8 units -- even if the count never rises above -4.

    Mathematically speaking, you're grossly overbetting your advantage to bet 8 units at a -4 count. So, while you do have an advantage, you're going to put your bankroll on a roller coaster.

  5. #5
    Parker
    Guest

    Parker: LIke Dancer said . . .

    > I've just finished reading Knockout
    > Blackjack. Are your comments about EV,
    > variance, and ROR increasing in a betting
    > progression pertinent to the six deck
    > betting progression that KO recommends?
    > Beginning at -4 with 2 units and progressing
    > to 10 units at +4 and up. Thanks.

    Increasing your bet as the count inceases is a bet ramp, not a progression, and if ramped properly represents optimal betting.

    A progression is increasing (or decreasing) your bet based on the results of the previous hand(s). Unless this happens to coincide with your bet ramp, it will represent less-than-optimal betting.

  6. #6
    sam
    Guest

    sam: Re: LIke Dancer said . . .

    Thanks for the guidance. Olaf called it a "betting progression" in the chart. Now I know what a ramp is. Thanks again.

    Sam

    > Increasing your bet as the count inceases is
    > a bet ramp, not a progression, and if ramped
    > properly represents optimal betting.

    > A progression is increasing (or decreasing)
    > your bet based on the results of the
    > previous hand(s). Unless this happens to
    > coincide with your bet ramp, it will
    > represent less-than-optimal betting.

  7. #7
    Parker
    Guest

    Parker: Indeed

    > Thanks for the guidance. Olaf called it a
    > "betting progression" in the
    > chart. Now I know what a ramp is. Thanks
    > again.

    KO is a good count (I started with it), and Knockout Blackjack is an excellent book. However, in this instance, the authors' choice of words was poor.

  8. #8
    Norm Wattenberger
    Guest

    Norm Wattenberger: Re: LIke Dancer said . . .

    > Thanks for the guidance. Olaf called it a
    > "betting progression" in the
    > chart.

    Yeh, unfortunate choice of word. Technically it is a progression. But that's a loaded word.

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