Is anyone familiar with the 5-Ace counting system? Does it work? Is this a reasonable first step for a beginner instead of the full blow Hi/lo counting system?
Is anyone familiar with the 5-Ace counting system? Does it work? Is this a reasonable first step for a beginner instead of the full blow Hi/lo counting system?
> Is anyone familiar with the 5-Ace counting
> system? Does it work? Is this a reasonable
> first step for a beginner instead of the
> full blow Hi/lo counting system?
I commend you for attempting to walk before you run. Many new players go the other way and look for the most difficult system they can find. Only later, after lots of frustration, do they realize that bigger isn't always better.
The theory behind the 5-Ace count is sound enough. The Ace is the most important card for the player (for betting purposes), and the 5 is the most important card for the house. If there are more Aces than 5's remaining to be played, the player should have the best of it.
The problem is, there are lots of other cards that matter, too. When you're only counting 15% of the cards, it's quite a leap of faith to assume the composition of the remaining deck(s) is following suit.
I haven't run any simulations with the 5-Ace count, so I can't tell you how well it works. My guess is that it's better than basic strategy alone -- but not much better.
Most of the benefit of counting (especially in shoe games) comes from betting correctly. The BC (betting correlation) of the 5-Ace count is 54%. Compare that with Hi-Lo's 97% or KO's 98%. That's a lot to give up.
Another example... Insurance is the most important play in the game. To make an informed decision, you need to estimate the ratio of 10's to non-10's. Since the 5-Ace count ignores the 10's, however, it's useless for this play.
I would suggest you check out the KO count. It's easier to play than Hi-Lo since it doesn't require true count conversion, and it's just as powerful for most games.
The system is fully explained in the book, "Knock Out Blackjack" which should be available in the online catalog.
Best of cards...
> Is anyone familiar with the 5-Ace counting
> system? Does it work? Is this a reasonable
> first step for a beginner instead of the
> full blow Hi/lo counting system?
I would absolutely recommend this as the first step. I did the exact same for a number of sessions in order to get a much better comfort level with observing and keeping track of cards played in a live situation. What I have found the most challenging in the progression from a BS player to an Advantage player is keeping track of counts while maintaining a normal BJ player posture. As frequently happens, you find yourself distracted with conversation with fellow players, dealer and cocktail waitresses. Starting with a very basis Ace-5 count builds your skill at handling those situations while keeping your mind on the count. Good luck. By the way, Fred Renzey has some very good material (Blackjack Bluebook II) which gives newer players a very good skill progression.
> I commend you for attempting to walk before
> you run. Many new players look for the most difficult system they
> can find.
> The theory behind the 5-Ace count is sound
> enough.
> The problem is, there are lots of other
> cards that matter, too.
> The BC (betting correlation) of the 5-Ace
> count is 54%. Compare that with Hi-Lo's 97%
> or KO's 98%. That's a lot to give up.
> Best of cards...
>snip: The new unbalanced KISS Count (Keep It Simple, Stupid) comes in Stages I, II and III. The entry level version tracks half of all the cards (paints but no 10-pips vs. 4, 5, 6 and black deuce). It has a BC of 79%. Initial running count is a positive number and you ramp up your bets beginning at "20". Stage II KISS tacks on the 3 and the 10-pip for a BC of 89%. Stage III adds in the 7 and the Ace for a BC of 96%. KISS comes with an individual matrix of 21 basic strategy deviations, plus an optional "true fudging" chart for improving the accuracy of those deviations at various penetration levels. It's in Blackjack Bluebook II along with other simpler and more complex stuff.
> first step. I did the exact same for a
> number of sessions in order to get a much
> better comfort level with observing and
> keeping track of cards played in a live
> situation. What I have found the most
> challenging in the progression from a BS
> player to an Advantage player is keeping
> track of counts while maintaining a normal
> BJ player posture. As frequently happens,
> you find yourself distracted with
> conversation with fellow players, dealer and
> cocktail waitresses. Starting with a very
> basis Ace-5 count builds your skill at
> handling those situations while keeping your
> mind on the count. Good luck. By the way,
> Fred Renzey has some very good material
> (Blackjack Bluebook II) which gives newer
> players a very good skill progression.
I have been to the linked site, and corresponded with the author. You use his A5 with Basic strategy. The surrender is tweaked a little. You can play using DS17 or DH17 with small advantages. IMHO the most important aspect is knowing when to bet more $ or less $. The published caveat is, "This is NOT a professional system."
paulie57
> I commend you for attempting to walk before
> you run. Many new players go the other way
> and look for the most difficult system they
> can find. Only later, after lots of
> frustration, do they realize that bigger
> isn't always better.
> The theory behind the 5-Ace count is sound
> enough. The Ace is the most important card
> for the player (for betting purposes), and
> the 5 is the most important card for the
> house. If there are more Aces than 5's
> remaining to be played, the player should
> have the best of it.
> The problem is, there are lots of other
> cards that matter, too. When you're only
> counting 15% of the cards, it's quite a leap
> of faith to assume the composition of the
> remaining deck(s) is following suit.
> I haven't run any simulations with the 5-Ace
> count, so I can't tell you how well it
> works. My guess is that it's better than
> basic strategy alone -- but not much better.
> Most of the benefit of counting (especially
> in shoe games) comes from betting correctly.
> The BC (betting correlation) of the 5-Ace
> count is 54%. Compare that with Hi-Lo's 97%
> or KO's 98%. That's a lot to give up.
> Another example... Insurance is the most
> important play in the game. To make an
> informed decision, you need to estimate the
> ratio of 10's to non-10's. Since the 5-Ace
> count ignores the 10's, however, it's
> useless for this play.
> I would suggest you check out the KO count.
> It's easier to play than Hi-Lo since it
> doesn't require true count conversion, and
> it's just as powerful for most games.
> The system is fully explained in the book,
> "Knock Out Blackjack" which should
> be available in the online catalog.
> Best of cards...
Dancer, et al...
I have run a simulation of the A-5 system as presented on ace-five.com for 6 decks DS17 DAS LS D2C RS4 No Resplit Aces. Using the 1 to 6 spread for 500 Million Rounds (ploppy A5, System Player, and Dealer total 1.5B hands dealt) using 678. PA is 0.15% for the System Player, and 0.05% for Ploppy A5. The variance decreases as the running count increases. Evidently, the tweaked surrender is almost ideal. If memory serves, Basic has a flat variance when trated as a count method.
I am currently running HS17 for 6 decks using site conditions... will post when complete.
Please note that 678 doesn't compute 77 vs. 9 or Tens for surrender, some help/guidance would be enlightening. Those surrenders are doubtful (although logical considering the method) as the author also used 678. Ditto for the HS17 version.
paulie57
> Dancer, et al...
The 6 deck HS 17 500 Meg run finished. PA is about 0.1% using rather bad betting pattern of 1-3-6-10. (The delay to response was/is caused by trying other sims for 200Meg.) 1-2-4-8 Betting pattern for a pair of 100Meg rounds is Break-even at best... seems to be -0.01 to -0.02%.
The good news is its better on the 2 deck HS17 *IF* you can bet 1-2-4-8. 1-2-4-6 looks to be +0.10 PA after two 100Meg rounds.
One final point, you can bet the 6 deck DS17 version as 1-2-4-8 with a PA of about 0.22% based on two 100Meg sims.
Real world is next...
paulie57
> Is anyone familiar with the 5-Ace counting
> system? Does it work? Is this a reasonable
> first step for a beginner instead of the
> full blow Hi/lo counting system?
After a dozen or so runs on 678 of at least 200Meg each, I'd say yes for DS17, and no for DH17.
Dealer hits soft 17 is a little too much House Advantage for A-5 tracking to overcome. Other runs made but not discussed previously include just how important ReSplit Aces are- they allow play for 2 Deck DH17 using 1-2-4-6 or 1-2-4-8 betting schemes. Surrender is KEY to the system.
One 200 Meg run for 6-deck DS17 that is interesting is using a 1-2-4-8 parlay, betting 2 at +1. This is a more traditional approach to betting with a count. 80% of the time you bet 1 unit with a running count of 0 or less. The other 20% are positive indexes with parlayed bets. You will have the same Player Advantage as the published 1-2-4-6 betting scheme (PA = +0.15%), and the Ploppy A-5 Player has a small gain of +0.05%. The variance decreses as the count increases. (1.321 at -6 down to 1.299 at +3 or more)
Simplicity is maximized as essentially the play strategy is basic with small amount of changes. The A-5 method is better than Basic alone, but a far cry fom others such as KO, and Simple +/-.
I recommend A-5 as a first step to full-blown counting. It will get a player focused on the importance of counting, counting itself, and money management. I surmise that its a nearly invisible method of gaining an edge. It can be used in conjunction with Simple +/- for *close plays* should you progress to better methods.
Thumbs up if your game is Dealer Stands Soft 17.
Thumbs down if the Dealer Hits Soft 17.
paulie57
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