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Thread: newtobj: Ups and downs

  1. #1
    newtobj
    Guest

    newtobj: Ups and downs

    I am noticing a definite pattern in my limited experience playing blackjack. A rather frustrating pattern. I'll win a decent amount, but then give it all back. This pattern repeats itself. The hundred dollar bills are gone from my wallet, and it feels so lonely and empty. With just boring old ones and fives and tens and twenties. I miss those hundreds. But I know they will be back based on the pattern. They are only gone temporarily, just like they were only there temporarily. It seems alittle surreal, maybe it is all a mirage.

  2. #2
    Parker
    Guest

    Parker: Yes and no

    > I am noticing a definite pattern in my
    > limited experience playing blackjack. A
    > rather frustrating pattern. I'll win a
    > decent amount, but then give it all back.
    > This pattern repeats itself. The hundred
    > dollar bills are gone from my wallet, and it
    > feels so lonely and empty. With just boring
    > old ones and fives and tens and twenties. I
    > miss those hundreds. But I know they will be
    > back based on the pattern. They are only
    > gone temporarily, just like they were only
    > there temporarily. It seems alittle surreal,
    > maybe it is all a mirage.

    Unfortunately, it is all too real. We play with a small edge and a large variance. This means that we will experience large swings, both positive and negative. In the long run, we will earn our expectation, but the trip there may be a wild ride indeed.

    However, this does not mean that simply because you have had several winning sessions, you are now somehow "due" to lose. There is no "pattern" in that sense. The cards have no memory; they have no mind at all. You face exactly the same odds after each shuffle, regardless of whether you have been winning or losing.


  3. #3
    Brick
    Guest

    Brick: Are you a card counter?

    If not, you must expect to lose.

    > I am noticing a definite pattern in my
    > limited experience playing blackjack. A
    > rather frustrating pattern. I'll win a
    > decent amount, but then give it all back.
    > This pattern repeats itself. The hundred
    > dollar bills are gone from my wallet, and it
    > feels so lonely and empty. With just boring
    > old ones and fives and tens and twenties. I
    > miss those hundreds. But I know they will be
    > back based on the pattern. They are only
    > gone temporarily, just like they were only
    > there temporarily. It seems alittle surreal,
    > maybe it is all a mirage.

  4. #4
    Brick
    Guest

    Brick: Positive swings.

    I dont 100% agree. If we have an ev of $25 per hour and after 100 hours we have managed to win 100$ an hour due to variance. Then we can expect our luck to run out sooner or later. The problem is we do not specificly know when this will occur, but nevertheless it will occur and we must inevidently accept it.

    Brick

    > Unfortunately, it is all too real. We play
    > with a small edge and a large variance. This
    > means that we will experience large swings,
    > both positive and negative. In the long run,
    > we will earn our expectation, but the trip
    > there may be a wild ride indeed.

    > However, this does not mean that simply
    > because you have had several winning
    > sessions, you are now somehow
    > "due" to lose. There is no
    > "pattern" in that sense. The cards
    > have no memory; they have no mind at all.
    > You face exactly the same odds after each
    > shuffle, regardless of whether you have been
    > winning or losing.

  5. #5
    Norm Wattenberger
    Guest

    Norm Wattenberger: Re: Positive swings.


    > I dont 100% agree. If we have an ev of $25
    > per hour and after 100 hours we have managed
    > to win 100$ an hour due to variance. Then we
    > can expect our luck to run out sooner or
    > later.

    By using the form 'if...then;' you are implying a causal relationship. But future results are not affected by past results. There is no causal relationship. Parker's post is correct.



  6. #6
    Brick
    Guest

    Brick: Re: Positive swings.

    "By using the form 'if...then;' you are
    implying a causal relationship."

    What(if)hehee, we eliminate "if" to absolutely?

  7. #7
    newtobj
    Guest

    newtobj: Re: Yes and no

    > However, this does not mean that simply
    > because you have had several winning
    > sessions, you are now somehow
    > "due" to lose. There is no
    > "pattern" in that sense. The cards
    > have no memory; they have no mind at all.
    > You face exactly the same odds after each
    > shuffle, regardless of whether you have been
    > winning or losing.

    I am learning that one should, when in the mist of a long winning streak, keep it in proper perspective. I know that my attitude was affected. The feeling that the streak will continue indefinitely. That I was losing money by not playing. I am learning that one must respect this game, it is not easily conquered. That one must keep the long run in mind.

  8. #8
    Norm Wattenberger
    Guest

    Norm Wattenberger: Difference between logic and English

    > What(if)hehee, we eliminate "if"
    > to absolutely?

    Well then it wouldn't be causal and would be accurate. And would be in 100% agreement with Parker's statement.

    Take the boolean algebra statement 'If a then b'

      [*]If a is known to be false, the statement is true even if b is also false.[*]If a is known to be true, then the statement is true only if b is known to be true.[*]If a is unknown and b is always true, then the statement is true.[/list]

      In logic, no causal relationship is implied. The problem is that in English, statements that are logically true can imply a causal relationship that is untrue.

  9. #9
    Sun Runner
    Guest

    Sun Runner: Re: Positive swings.

    Parker said earlier ..

    "In the long run, we will earn our expectation ..."

    "However, this does not mean that simply because you have had several winning sessions, you are now somehow "due" to lose (or win -SR). There is no "pattern" in that sense. The cards have no memory; they have no mind at all. You face exactly the same odds after each shuffle, regardless of whether you have been winning or losing."

    You agree he is correct; and I am sure he is. However these two statements seem at odds with each other and I am hoping you might try and clear it up -again.

    If Parker's second statement is true, how could the first one be also?

    I tend to see us collectively, as a group, all under the bell curve "realizing the expectation"
    as opposed to all of the hands we each play individually under our own private curve trying to realize the expectation.

    Anyway, I got off on this several months ago and beat it to death -which is not what I intend again. Just hoping if I hear it again, it might make more sense.

    As always [well mostly always ], enjoy your posts Norm; they are very insiteful.

  10. #10
    humble
    Guest

    humble: Re: Difference between logic and English

    > Take the boolean algebra statement 'If a
    > then b'.

    I take it you mean 'implication', i.e. IF a THEN b == (a OR (NOT b)), right?

    > If a is known to be false, the statement
    > is true even if b is also false.

    Nope, ONLY if b is also false.

    > If a is known to be true, then the
    > statement is true only if b is known to be
    > true.

    Nope, EVEN if b is unknown.

    > If a is unknown and b is always true, then
    > the statement is true.

    Nope, for that b must be always false.

    But I can't believe all your examples are wrong so my initial assumption is incorrect?

  11. #11
    humble
    Guest

    humble: I guess IF a THEN b == ((NOT a) OR b) :=> *NM*


  12. #12
    Norm Wattenberger
    Guest

    Norm Wattenberger: Re: Difference between logic and English

    Can't believe I screwed that one up that badly Goes from not touching a book on boolean algebra in 38 years. Funny thing is the correct answers make my point about implication.

    regards,
    norm

  13. #13
    Norm Wattenberger
    Guest

    Norm Wattenberger: Re: Positive swings.

    If I understand what you are saying, it is a common problem that has been described before. The more hands played (either by one person or many people) the closer you will be to expected Win Rate in percentage terms. But, the farther you are likely to be from expected actual dollars won or lost. This is possible because more dollars have been bet.

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