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Thread: newtobj: hard 16 nightmare

  1. #1
    newtobj
    Guest

    newtobj: hard 16 nightmare

    During a high positive count I got a hard 16 against the dealer's 8, so I decided it was a good time to deviate from basic strategy and stay, thinking that I would probably get a high card and bust with the count so high. The player next to me drew a 5, the dealer got a 17, and I lost a very big bet. The hand still haunts me. Did I do the right thing? Should one resolutely stick to basic strategy regardless of the count?

  2. #2
    Parker
    Guest

    Parker: Unclear on the concept

    > During a high positive count I got a hard 16
    > against the dealer's 8, so I decided it was
    > a good time to deviate from basic strategy
    > and stay, thinking that I would probably get
    > a high card and bust with the count so high.
    > The player next to me drew a 5, the dealer
    > got a 17, and I lost a very big bet. The
    > hand still haunts me. Did I do the right
    > thing? Should one resolutely stick to basic
    > strategy regardless of the count?

    The first thing to realize is that when you have a hard 16, you are pretty much screwed. No matter what you do, you will lose the hand the majority of the time. This is why we surrender the hand if allowed.

    We count for two reasons: to determine when to raise our bet, and to know when to make certain deviations from basic strategy.

    Calculations (along with billions of simulated hands) have shown that if we stand on 16 vs 10 when the count becomes positive, we will lose slightly less often than if we hit the hand.

    However, unless the count is so high that there are no small cards at all left in the deck/shoe, there will be the occasional time when that stray 4 or 5 is the next card in the deck.

    It happens. It means nothing. We play for the long run. If you play long enough you will see just about every possible bizarre combination of cards.

    You made the correct play. You lost a hand. Fuhgeddaboudit.


  3. #3
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: Unclear on the concept

    > You made the correct play. You lost a hand.
    > Fuhgeddaboudit.

    You misread. The dealer had an 8 up. So, chances are he played the hand incorrectly.

    Don

  4. #4
    newtobj
    Guest

    newtobj: Re: Unclear on the concept

    > You misread. The dealer had an 8 up. So,
    > chances are he played the hand incorrectly.

    > Don

    I deviated from basic strategy because the count was high. I was afraid of drawing a high card and busting. When the player after me drew a 5 I felt as if I had made a mistake. I guess there is know way of knowing, this game is still an enigma to me, wrapped in a riddle.

  5. #5
    Parker
    Guest

    Parker: Oops

    > You misread. The dealer had an 8 up. So,
    > chances are he played the hand incorrectly.

    You're correct of course. As can be seen from my response, I read the question as referring to 16 vs 10 for some strange reason.

    I don't have an index handy for standing on 16 vs 8. I'm guessing that it would be around +10 (hi-lo true count).

    Gotta stop posting before I've had my coffee!

  6. #6
    Parker
    Guest

    Parker: Clearing it up

    > I deviated from basic strategy because the
    > count was high. I was afraid of drawing a
    > high card and busting. When the player after
    > me drew a 5 I felt as if I had made a
    > mistake. I guess there is know way of
    > knowing, this game is still an enigma to me,
    > wrapped in a riddle.

    According to my old edition of Wong's Professional Blackjack, one should stand on 16 against an 8 if the hi-lo true count is at/above +10 (I guessed well in my post above).

    It is true that the likelihood of your busting increases as the count increases. However, the likelihood that the dealer will make a hand also increases. The only way you win by standing is if the dealer busts.

    A true count of +10 or above is extremely rare, so most people simply play this according to basic strategy, regardless of the count.


  7. #7
    Mr. Ed
    Guest

    Mr. Ed: Learn Your Indices!!!!!

    > I deviated from basic strategy because the
    > count was high. I was afraid of drawing a
    > high card and busting. When the player after
    > me drew a 5 I felt as if I had made a
    > mistake. I guess there is know way of
    > knowing, this game is still an enigma to me,
    > wrapped in a riddle.

    NEVER guess! Learn your indices and if you're not sure, play basic strategy. (Actually, DON'T learn them all - you'll get a big headache and very little value. Pick a small subset, say, the "Illustrious 18" and relax.)

    The index for surrendering 16v8 is much lower, I calculated it at +4.

    Don't be afraid: You can draw a bust card even if you have a 12 and the count is -1.

    Don't second-guess your decision by looking at the next card! You'll go nuts and it can only erode your confidence. Just play by the numbers!

  8. #8
    Brick
    Guest

    Brick: Clearing it up,a little more.

    "However, the likelihood that the dealer will make a hand also increases."

    It's not so much the dealer will "make" a hand with an 8 showing,but the likelihood is the dealer will "have" a pat hand during high plus counts with an 8 up. This is the better way for shy card counters to view this play and gives them a good sense of confidence to agressively hit away.

    According to my old edition of Wong's
    > Professional Blackjack , one should stand on
    > 16 against an 8 if the hi-lo true count is
    > at/above +10 (I guessed well in my post
    > above).

    > It is true that the likelihood of your
    > busting increases as the count increases.
    > However, the likelihood that the dealer will
    > make a hand also increases. The only way you
    > win by standing is if the dealer busts.

    > A true count of +10 or above is extremely
    > rare, so most people simply play this
    > according to basic strategy, regardless of
    > the count.

  9. #9
    Parker
    Guest

    Parker: Exactly

    Perhaps "make a hand" was not the best choice of words on my part. As you point out, the most likely way the dealer will "make a hand" is by flipping a ten value card in the hole.

    Of course, he can also do it by flippng an ace. And a deuce or a three is more bad news, since the higher the count, the more likely he will draw a ten.

    By "make a hand" I simply meant "not bust."

  10. #10
    newtobj
    Guest

    newtobj: Re: Learn Your Indices!!!!!

    > NEVER guess! Learn your indices and if
    > you're not sure, play basic strategy.
    > (Actually, DON'T learn them all - you'll get
    > a big headache and very little value. Pick a
    > small subset, say, the "Illustrious
    > 18" and relax.)

    > The index for surrendering 16v8 is much
    > lower, I calculated it at +4.

    > Don't be afraid: You can draw a bust card
    > even if you have a 12 and the count is -1.

    > Don't second-guess your decision by looking
    > at the next card! You'll go nuts and it can
    > only erode your confidence. Just play by the
    > numbers!

    Indices? Do they tell us how to bet, or when to deviate from basic strategy, or both? It sounds like Wong's book is a good reference, I be sure to get it.

    Unfortunately surrender wasn't an option where I was playing, I would love to play under this rule. Just to provide further information on the hand, the rc was +13, the tc was around +6 with about 2 decks remaining in the shoe. Based on the excellent advice given me, the tc wasn't high enough to justify my play, I should have hit that hard 16. Still learning.

  11. #11
    Mr. Ed
    Guest

    Mr. Ed: Re: Learn Your Indices!!!!!

    "Indices" tell you when to deviate from BS (basic strategy). There are hundreds of deviations but you can achieve most of the benefit by only memorizing a few. Don Shlesinger has studied this and came up with 18, (The Illustrious 18, or I18 for short)

    The most common deviation you'll see is 16v10: stand with a RUNNING count > 0. Then comes 12v4: Hit with a RUNNING count < 0. The most valuable is: Insurance if TC>+3.

    > Indices? Do they tell us how to bet, or when
    > to deviate from basic strategy, or both? It
    > sounds like Wong's book is a good reference,
    > I be sure to get it.

    > Unfortunately surrender wasn't an option
    > where I was playing, I would love to play
    > under this rule. Just to provide further
    > information on the hand, the rc was +13, the
    > tc was around +6 with about 2 decks
    > remaining in the shoe. Based on the
    > excellent advice given me, the tc wasn't
    > high enough to justify my play, I should
    > have hit that hard 16. Still learning.

  12. #12
    Coug Fan
    Guest

    Coug Fan: Indices

    > Indices? Do they tell us how to bet, or when
    > to deviate from basic strategy, or both? It
    > sounds like Wong's book is a good reference,
    > I be sure to get it.

    Indexes are a set of numbers for a given count system that tell you when to deviate from basic strategy for a given play. Most counters learn at least the 18 most valuable indexes (the Illustrius 18 developed by Don Schlesinger). If you do not know the correct index number for a given play, then always play basic strategy. This can be tough to do, and sometimes takes discipline. Personally, I use the I18 indexes as well as about 10 others that I chose because it irritated me not to know the correct action. That is how I got over the temptation to "guess".

    Another reason for learning alot of index numbers is that it allows you to make plays that will fool the unsophisticated pit critters (like hitting 12 v 6). Just be careful, because to the sophisticated observer, really obscure index plays will just confirm their suspicion that you are a counter.

    Wong's book has a complete set of indexes for the Hi-Lo and Halves counts. Don Schlesingers' book (Blackjack Attack) contains extensive discussion about the index plays that are most valuable as well as Risk Averse index numbers and a tremendous amount of other extremely valuable information. These are the first two books that I purchased when starting out and they are both must haves in my opinion.

  13. #13
    newtobj
    Guest

    newtobj: Re: Learn Your Indices!!!!!

    > "Indices" tell you when to deviate
    > from BS (basic strategy). There are hundreds
    > of deviations but you can achieve most of
    > the benefit by only memorizing a few. Don
    > Shlesinger has studied this and came up with
    > 18, (The Illustrious 18, or I18 for short)

    > The most common deviation you'll see is
    > 16v10: stand with a RUNNING count > 0.
    > Then comes 12v4: Hit with a RUNNING count
    > +3.

    Is splitting 10s among these deviations? I read where this can be a very profitable move during high counts, drawing two more 10 value cards or two aces would give you two very good hands. Has anyone out there ever done this? Did it draw alot of attention from the pit?

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