wyrstle: High Negative Counts

[wyrstle]

I'm new to advantage play in the last six months and have been wondering if there is not an opportunity to be taken when playing multiple deck shoe games. (Typically 6 deck and 70% or better penetration in my particular case)

If early in the shoe (first or second deck) with a running count of say -12 or more, isn't the probability of the high cards beginning to appear to level out the count a place to take advantage by betting 2 or 3 units rather than just one ?

It seems that this must be wrong since I've not ever seen it mentioned by any of the experts but just what is the fallacy of this strategy ?

[Don Schlesinger]

> If early in the shoe (first or second deck)
> with a running count of say -12 or more,
> isn't the probability of the high cards
> beginning to appear to level out the count a
> place to take advantage by betting 2 or 3
> units rather than just one?

You're confused. The high cards have negative tag values in count systems. With a RC of -12, high cards have already come out. The expectation is, therefore, for the low-valued cards to start appearing, which is bad for the player.

> It seems that this must be wrong since I've
> not ever seen it mentioned by any of the
> experts but just what is the fallacy of this
> strategy?

See above.

Don

[wyrstle]

Oh Good Lord, yes I managed to ask precisely the opposite of what I wanted to. In fact the biggest obstacle I have had trying to move on from just basic strategy to counting, is that my brain has this overwhelming desire to treat high cards as being a good thing (positive/plus) and the small cards as bad (negative/minus).

Let me restate the question properly.

I have been wondering if there is not an opportunity to be taken when playing multiple deck shoe games. (Typically 6 deck and 70% or better penetration in my particular case)

If early in the shoe (first or second deck) with a running count of say +12 or more, isn't the probability of the high cards beginning to appear to level out the count a place to take advantage by betting 2 or 3 units rather than just one ?

It seems that this must be wrong (or at least not optimal) since I've not ever seen it mentioned by any of the experts but just what is the fallacy of this strategy ?

[bond trader]

In re-reading your post, I am wondering if you are using KO, and starting at a IRC of -20. If this is indeed the case, then it is true that at minus 12 early in the shoe the count is slightly in your favor. However, that early in the shoe the advantage is very very small (beacuse there are so many decks of cards left in the shoe, the number of excess tens + aces per deck is small).

If using KO, it is best to follow the system as designed -- going to 2 or 3 units that early will mostly just increase variance, not EV. If it bothers you that KO does not identify small advantages early in a shoe, learn to True Count KO (there are various posts on the subject). If you are not using KO, but a count that is balanced and starts at zero, disregard my entire post.

BT

[SOTSOG]

> If early in the shoe (first or second deck)
> with a running count of say +12 or more,
> isn't the probability of the high cards
> beginning to appear to level out the count a
> place to take advantage by betting 2 or 3
> units rather than just one ?

Yes. In a 6 deck shoe, with a running count (RC) of +12, with 5 decks remaining undealt, you have a true count (TC) of +2 (12/5=2.4=2), and should bet accordingly.

If your RC is +18, and you are still in the first deck played, your TC = +3. With 5 decks remaining, a RC of +15 will give you the same TC = +3 advantage.

Divide your RC by number of decks remaining to get TC (or double RC and divide by number of half decks remaining). It doesn't matter where you are at in the shoe, The advantage represented by the TC is the same for all pratical purposes.

[Mister M]

My brain has this
> overwhelming desire to treat high cards as
> being a good thing (positive/plus) and the
> small cards as bad (negative/minus).

Small cards ARE bad and high card ARE good.When you have a rc of +15 with 3 decks to play with therefore a tc of +5 the reason that the betting is raised at positive counts is in expectation that the count will decrease.

[Splitz]

I understand how you are getting the TC, but then what do you do with it? if you have a TC of +2 what do you do with your bet?

> Yes. In a 6 deck shoe, with a running count
> (RC) of +12, with 5 decks remaining undealt,
> you have a true count (TC) of +2
> (12/5=2.4=2), and should bet accordingly.

> If your RC is +18, and you are still in the
> first deck played, your TC = +3. With 5
> decks remaining, a RC of +15 will give you
> the same TC = +3 advantage.

> Divide your RC by number of decks remaining
> to get TC (or double RC and divide by number
> of half decks remaining). It doesn't matter
> where you are at in the shoe, The advantage
> represented by the TC is the same for all
> pratical purposes.

[bond trader]

> I understand how you are getting the TC, but
> then what do you do with it? if you have a
> TC of +2 what do you do with your bet?

All balanced systems require you to convert the Running Count to a True Count by dividing by the number of decks. All of your betting is based upon what the TC is, and knowing the TC and the rules of the game you are playing allows you to know what your advantage or disadvantage over the house is. I won't start going deeply into optimal betting spreads since this is the beginners page, but you generally want to have your max bet occur at a TC of +4 or +5, depending on the type of game being played.

For exapmle: If you are playing a shoe game you might set up your betting ramp like this:

TC <= -1 leave
TC = 0 1 unit
TC = +1 2 units
TC = +2 5 units
TC = +3 8 units
TC = +4 10 units
TC >= +5 12 units

Hope this helps.

BT