RayMetz100: counting down from 20 (6 deck KO)

[RayMetz100]

It's been a little over 2 months since I started playing basic strategy and logging my results. I'm currently up $75 total in my 29 outings, 3350 hands, and 42 hours. My bank is now $340.

The local game I usually play is 6D, H17, DA2, DAS, NS, $3 min.

The last few times I've been out, I've been able to raise my bets a little because of the positive counts. I've also started wonging out of really bad shoes. So far, I've started with $3 bets, gone to $4 with counts from -3 to 0, $5 from +1 to +4, and once or twice I've bet $6 on higher counts. I've also been taking insurance at +3.

I realize that I'm still playing a negative expectation game with that tiny 1-2 spread, but I don't think I have the bankroll to support anything much higher without a high risk of ruin. I also lose count quite often, and have to continue the count with a conservative estimate.

Two questions:

How do you recommend I say the count in my head? When it's real negative, I just say to myself the number only, or maybe even "negative 15" or something. I've heard you're supposed to say M15 to yourself to indicate minus. I do get a little confused around the 0 mark when the count keeps going between positive and negative.

My other question is what should be my max bet considering my tiny bankroll? I currently add about $5 to it each outing to make up for the negative EV and ensure it grows. I'm going to reread the KO book sections about kelly betting, but for now I want to be super conservative because my counting skills still need a lot of work.

Thanks,

Ray

[Buick Riviera]

> How do you recommend I say the count in my
> head? When it's real negative, I just say to
> myself the number only, or maybe even
> "negative 15" or something. I've
> heard you're supposed to say M15 to yourself
> to indicate minus. I do get a little
> confused around the 0 mark when the count
> keeps going between positive and negative.

I also use KO and also used to get confused going between the positive and negative. The solution for me was rather simple: Increase the IRC from those recommended in the book by 30.

For 6D start at 10. This makes the Pivot 34, Insurance 33 and the Key Count 26.

For DD start at 26. The Pivot is 34, Insurance 33 and the Key Count 31.

Single Deck, the IRC is 30, Pivot is 34, Insurance 33 and the Key Count 32.

You'll rarely run into negative numbers in the 6D and if you do it's time for a potty break.

You'll never get to the negative numbers in DD or single deck.

Buick

[M]

i say "m" for minus when the count approaches 0 and might go positive, just to keep things clear. otherwise i envision negative and positive as being numbers lying on a horizontal line, from left to right, respectively. this way you can keep a big "minus/positive parenthesis" over whatever the count may be.

cheers.

[Kasey]

> How do you recommend I say the count in my
> head?

I didn't like all the M9, M10 either, so I reversed the signs on all the cards.

A=+1
X=+1
9=0
8=0
7=-1
6=-1
5=-1
4=-1
3=-1
2=-1

Then I moved the IRC around so that Key for any number of decks is +1. When my count gets down to +1, time to start upping the bet, no matter what number of decks.

Overall it looks like this:

Decks:8 IRC:+24 Key:+1 Pivot:-8
Decks:6 IRC:+18 Key:+1 Pivot:-6
Decks:4 IRC:+12 Key:+1 Pivot:-4
Decks:2 IRC: +6 Key:+1 Pivot:-2
Decks:1 IRC: +3 Key:+1 Pivot:-1

So while I'm waiting for a 6 deck shoe to get good, for example, I'm counting down from 18, no negative numbers until the deck gets interesting.

Another nice thing about this is it makes it easy to remember IRC and Pivot:

IRC = #decks * 3
Pivot = #decks * -1

[Sun Runner]

> I didn't like all the M9, M10 either, so I
> reversed the signs on all the cards.

> Then I moved the IRC around so that Key for
> any number of decks is +1. When my count
> gets down to +1, time to start upping the
> bet, no matter what number of decks.

I also thought about that but the biggest drawback I could see was just as things started heating up .. the count started getting good .. I started getting excited .. it was then I was counting negative numbers. Yikes!

For 6Ds I use an initial running count of -0-.

That puts the key at +16 and the pivot at +24.

Rarely does the count stray below -0-; generally I am counting positive numbers. Of course it's still negative expectation until I hit +16.

When it does stray below -0-, I just suck it up and focus.

Ray -as far as your betting schedule; that's a tough one. Seems to me like your top bet should never exceed $6 with a $340 BR. As you said it's a 1-2 spread.

I appreciate risk of ruin and all that .. but maybe you take a flyer next time you see the count soar past the pivot point .. and bet the table max! [What is the table max by the way?]

Or bet $50 or $100 if the count is way out there.

Geeez .. now your gambling.

Maybe you double your BR .. maybe you go bust.
I know, now your back to working over time to build a nest egg again.

Getting off high center ain't easy!!

Have a great day.

SR

[RayMetz100]

> I appreciate risk of ruin and all that ..
> but maybe you take a flyer next time you see
> the count soar past the pivot point .. and
> bet the table max! [What is the table max by
> the way?]

> Or bet $50 or $100 if the count is way out
> there.

> Geeez .. now your gambling.

> Maybe you double your BR .. maybe you go
> bust.

The table limits are $3 to $100.

That's just not my style. I doesn?t bother me thinking that I lost $50 tonight, but that was only 15% of my bankroll. I can still be happy knowing that I played the game the best possible way considering my current bankroll, training, and experience. Sort of like the "It's not if you win or lose that counts, it's how you play the game". So loses are much easier to take when I'm playing by the book.

My bank started with $30, and the most I've added in one night is $10. It?s taken over 2 months to build that to $340. I now only add $5 per night out. I'm not about to risk losing that over one night's lucky count, when I have a whopping 5% advantage or something.

I also feel very strongly that people who work for what they have and slowly build their wealth, are in a much better position to care for and enjoy their wealth. I can just imagine what would happen if I first won the 10 million dollar lottery, then took up the hobby of blackjack. I don't think I'd be as good at the game and as happy with my play and current bankroll after two months, like I am now. I'd probably be down about 9 million.

My goal for now is to stick with the 1-2 spread, which will lower, but not eliminate my negative expectation, while adding $5 per night to my bank. If I stick with this hobby long enough, by the end of the year I might have almost a $1000 bank and be able to spread $3-$10. I'll also be a better counter by then, and hopefully be able to keep my expectation in the positive, and my ROR to a minimum. That's all I want out of this hobby for now. Just the feeling that I know how to play for free, with virtually no risk is good enough for now.

Ray

[Sun Runner]

[Kasey]

> My goal for now is to stick with the 1-2
> spread, which will lower, but not eliminate
> my negative expectation, while adding $5 per
> night to my bank. If I stick with this hobby
> long enough, by the end of the year I might
> have almost a $1000 bank and be able to
> spread $3-$10. I'll also be a better counter
> by then, and hopefully be able to keep my
> expectation in the positive, and my ROR to a
> minimum. That's all I want out of this hobby
> for now. Just the feeling that I know how to
> play for free, with virtually no risk is
> good enough for now.

I ran a couple of 100 million hand sims (not as large as one would like) with your rules and here is what I found.

With a 1-2 spread, your EV is about -.42% and to turn your $340 into $1000 like you talked about in your post, you have a 94% chance of going bust first.

If you switch to a 1-5 spread (3 at Key, 5 at Pivot), your EV is still slightly negative at -.04%. Your ROR from $340 to $1000 is reduced to 76%. So it seems to me you would be safer (if you can call it that) spreading 1-5 than 1-2.

[RayMetz100]

> it seems to me
> you would be safer (if you can call it that)
> spreading 1-5 than 1-2.

I'm not sure if you can sim this, but I add $5 each night I play. I typically play about 150 hands per outing.

I'm not sure if your sim software can compute that or not. In 1 million hands, I would have slowly added almost $7,000 to my bank.

Thanks for running the sim though.

Ray