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Thread: Sentry: 3 ?s: True Count Comparisons & Multiple Hits

  1. #1
    Sentry
    Guest

    Sentry: 3 ?s: True Count Comparisons & Multiple Hits

    Three questions that I could use help with:

    1) Is there a chart somewhere that gives the equivalency of the true count value of different counts? Something like:
    TC 5 Hi-Lo = x in K-O, y in Red Seven, z in UBZ
    TC 4 Hi-Lo = x in K-O, y in Red Seven, z in UBZ and so on.
    This would help me a great deal when reading books and messages by authors using different systems. If this doesn't already exist, I'm hoping someone can produce one for permanent reference.

    2) I use Don's Catch 22, play pitch games, but and feel I missed learning something somewhere about when to stop hitting a stiff hand. Usually with hits, two is trouble, Three is threatening and four (and up) is fatal. I have heard (without documentation) that you should stand on any three card 16.
    Is there a shortcut to use when determining how many hits to take?

    3) Soft Eighteen- any different? If you hit A,7 and make it worse, do you keep hitting until you make it or break it?

    Thanks,
    Sentry

  2. #2
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: 3 ?s: True Count Comparisons & Multiple Hits

    "Three questions that I could use help with:

    1) Is there a chart somewhere that gives the equivalency of the true

    count value of different counts? Something like:

    TC 5 Hi-Lo = x in K-O, y in Red Seven, z in UBZ

    TC 4 Hi-Lo = x in K-O, y in Red Seven, z in UBZ and so on.

    This would help me a great deal when reading books and messages by

    authors using different systems. If this doesn't already exist, I'm hoping

    someone can produce one for permanent reference."

    No, there's no such chart, and it wouldn't serve much purpose. Most people use one system and learn the advantages and bet sizes associated with that system's true counts. But, if you get software, such as BJRM, you can easily compare edges, count by count, for various systems.

    Finally, different games and rules produce different edges for the same true count, same system, so what you're proposing would be highly impractical, in my opinion.

    "2) I use Don's Catch 22, play pitch games, but and feel I missed

    learning something somewhere about when to stop hitting a stiff hand.

    Usually with hits, two is trouble, Three is threatening and four (and up)

    is fatal. I have heard (without documentation) that you should stand on

    any three card 16.

    Is there a shortcut to use when determining how many hits to take?"

    There's no such thing as "how many hits to take" when you're using index numbers. Just make the play according to the index, regardless of how many cards are in your hand.

    "3) Soft Eighteen- any different? If you hit A,7 and make it worse, do

    you keep hitting until you make it or break it?"

    Sounds like you need a refresher course in basic strategy here. If you hit A,7 (presumably against dealer's 9, 10, or ace) and you turen it into a hard hand whose value is less than 17, then you continue to hit until you reach 17 (basic strategy), or until the true count tells you to stand (using your index numbers, for plays such as 16 v. 10, 15 v. 10.

    Clear?

    Don

  3. #3
    Sentry
    Guest

    Sentry: Thanks, Don

    I don't like all of your answers, but coming from you, I know it is the straight stuff.

    My frustration with busting with big bets out has got me trying to re-invent the wheel. Thanks for saving my time!

    Sentry

  4. #4
    Moose
    Guest

    Moose: Not hitting a 3+ card 16 sixteen..

    Sentry,

    the reason why, as basic strategy, one does not hit a three card sixteen, has to do with card counting.

    The index for hitting 16 against a 10 is, I believe, just a hair below zero. If the deck is exactly neutral or in any way rich with high cards, one stands. If the deck is in any way poor in high cards, one hits.

    It's when the deck is right around that neutral point, that the decision to hit or stand on 16 can be really sensitive to the cards that are out.

    This is why you stand on a three card sixteen against a ten. Any scenario that includes three cards that add to 16, and a ten, will (almost?) always have a neutral or higher count - note that aces count as low cards for the purposes of this hand, so T+5+A vs T = 2 high cards and two low cards = neutral count.

    Compare this to a two-card 16, where you will always have a slightly minus count, with either one ten and two neutral cards gone (9-7 vs T) or two tens and a 6 gone (T-6 vs T). This slight minus running count is enough to push the play from a stand to a hit!

    Hope that helps.

    Bottom line: 2-card vs 3+-card 16s rules are just a shortcut for people who don't count but want to play precise basic strategy. If you count, use the count index exclusively to determine the play.

    And yes, you may not always like the right answers, but from Don, rest assured they are, indeed, the right ones.

    (Well, occasionally there's a typo here or there, but that's about it

    M.

  5. #5
    Adam N. Subtractum
    Guest

    Adam N. Subtractum: composition dependant 16's...

    Assuming the count is not known, the composition dependant plays that I am familiar with off-hand for hard 16 (single deck) are:

    4/4/4/4 v. 8 = stand
    7/5/4 v. 10 = stand
    10/2/2/2 v.A = stand

    I know there are more, but supposedly these are the ones that show up the most often.

    Also I read somewhere to stand on all 3 & 4 card 16's v. 10, EXCEPT if they contain 6/6, 6/7, 6/8, or 6/9. If anybody knows where I got this, please remind me

    And finally, John May recommends standing on all three & four card 16's EXCEPT those containing a 6. Let me say he recommends this as a simple guideline only, NOT ideal play.

    ANS

    > Sentry,

    > the reason why, as basic strategy, one does
    > not hit a three card sixteen, has to do with
    > card counting.

    > The index for hitting 16 against a 10 is, I
    > believe, just a hair below zero. If the deck
    > is exactly neutral or in any way rich with
    > high cards, one stands. If the deck is in
    > any way poor in high cards, one hits.

    > It's when the deck is right around that
    > neutral point, that the decision to hit or
    > stand on 16 can be really sensitive to the
    > cards that are out.

    > This is why you stand on a three card
    > sixteen against a ten. Any scenario that
    > includes three cards that add to 16, and a
    > ten, will (almost?) always have a neutral or
    > higher count - note that aces count as low
    > cards for the purposes of this hand, so
    > T+5+A vs T = 2 high cards and two low cards
    > = neutral count.

    > Compare this to a two-card 16, where you
    > will always have a slightly minus count,
    > with either one ten and two neutral cards
    > gone (9-7 vs T) or two tens and a 6 gone
    > (T-6 vs T). This slight minus running count
    > is enough to push the play from a stand to a
    > hit!

    > Hope that helps.

    > Bottom line: 2-card vs 3+-card 16s rules are
    > just a shortcut for people who don't count
    > but want to play precise basic strategy. If
    > you count, use the count index exclusively
    > to determine the play.

    > And yes, you may not always like the right
    > answers, but from Don, rest assured they
    > are, indeed, the right ones.

    > (Well, occasionally there's a typo here or
    > there, but that's about it

    > M.

  6. #6
    Moose
    Guest

    Moose: Re: composition dependant 16's...

    > 4/4/4/4 v. 8 = stand
    > 7/5/4 v. 10 = stand
    > 10/2/2/2 v.A = stand

    > I know there are more, but supposedly these
    > are the ones that show up the most often.

    How on earth does 4/4/4/4 vs non-ten show up often at all in 1D?

    I think 7/5/4 v 10 would be the most often, but the others, with their three- and four-of-a-kind hands, should hardly show up at all. Perhaps these are the hands that get the biggest gain from composition-dependant play?

  7. #7
    Adam N. Subtractum
    Guest

    Adam N. Subtractum: Good point, moose... *NM*


  8. #8
    PaddyBoy
    Guest

    PaddyBoy: Re: 3 ?s: True Count Comparisons & Multiple Hits

    > 2) I use Don's Catch 22, play pitch games,
    > but and feel I missed learning something
    > somewhere about when to stop hitting a stiff
    > hand. Usually with hits, two is trouble,
    > Three is threatening and four (and up) is
    > fatal. I have heard (without documentation)
    > that you should stand on any three card 16.
    > Is there a shortcut to use when determining
    > how many hits to take?

    Sentry,as Don says play according to the count no matter how mant cards you hold.
    But if you are heads up with the dealer first round after the shuffle then there are variations on how your 12,15 and 16s are constructed and played.Go to the wizard of odds for these.Or read the BJ chapter of Charles Epsteins Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic.The rule he gives for 16 V 10 is stand on all 3 and 4 card hands unless you have two 6s,a 6 and a 7 or 8 or 9.Knowing these takes .03 from the HE.
    I dont know where Adam got his numbers from,he should not have told you these as he was already given the proper info on may 4th at BJ21 beginners page.
    moose is also wrong.These plays have nothing to do with counting.

  9. #9
    Claymore22
    Guest

    Claymore22: Multi-card 16s (from Epstein)

    I've posted this (or something similar before), but, here goes (again): Epstein's "Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic" contains a table in the Appx showing player's exact expectation for every possible 2, 3, and 4 card 16 vs dealer's 10.

    In the text, he sums up the table this way: "Against a 10, draw with two-card 16s; draw with three- and four-card 16s that include two 6s or one 6 with a 7, 8, or 9, or holding 2,2,2,10; otherwise, stand."

    (NOTE: these results are for single-deck.)

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