Electric Kid: Some Thoughts on Ouchez's "Predator System"

[Electric Kid]

It appears this system all boils down to whether the EV were are giving up with a "No Bust" strategy is made up by having maybe 5% more pen. I haven't run a sim but I would be very surprised if the increased pen made up for the lost EV. It would be interesting to see some sim results on this.

At 90% pen the most rounds you will get playing heads up is probably 18 rounds. Average cards per hand is 2.7 and include dealer so say 5 x 18 = 90 cards. If player breaks one time in four you will miss seeing about 5 cards or 5% pen. I not sure how often a player breaks but know dealer breaks about 28% so assume player would break about as often although player has to go first but this is offset by not having to hit every stiff like dealer does.

Ouchez, I played that casino and no way are they giving 90% pen. Good pen but not 90%

[Parker]

> It appears this system all boils down to
> whether the EV were are giving up with a
> "No Bust" strategy is made up by
> having maybe 5% more pen. I haven't run a
> sim but I would be very surprised if the
> increased pen made up for the lost EV. It
> would be interesting to see some sim results
> on this.

> At 90% pen the most rounds you will get
> playing heads up is probably 18 rounds.
> Average cards per hand is 2.7 and include
> dealer so say 5 x 18 = 90 cards. If player
> breaks one time in four you will miss seeing
> about 5 cards or 5% pen. I not sure how
> often a player breaks but know dealer breaks
> about 28% so assume player would break about
> as often although player has to go first but
> this is offset by not having to hit every
> stiff like dealer does.

The fact that the player goes first has no effect on how often he will bust, only on his losing the hand. Not only does the player not hit stiffs against weak dealer cards, the player can split stiff pairs (6-6, 7-7, 8-8) which the dealer must hit.

In addition, if a pair is split, we only need make one hand in order to to achieve our goal of the dealer showing his/her hole card.

I have been unable to find a number for the percentage that a player busts when playing proper strategy, but I believe that your numbers are, if anything, conservative. In other words, the player likely busts less than one hand in four.

I do know this: According to Griffin, the player gives up a whopping 3% by not hitting stiffs against strong dealer upcards.

I don't need to run a sim to know that a 5% increase in pen is not going to come anywhere close to compensating for that.

[Ouchez]

> It appears this system all boils down to
> whether the EV were are giving up with a
> "No Bust" strategy is made up by
> having maybe 5% more pen. I haven't run a
> sim but I would be very surprised if the
> increased pen made up for the lost EV. It
> would be interesting to see some sim results
> on this.

> At 90% pen the most rounds you will get
> playing heads up is probably 18 rounds.
> Average cards per hand is 2.7 and include
> dealer so say 5 x 18 = 90 cards. If player
> breaks one time in four you will miss seeing
> about 5 cards or 5% pen. I not sure how
> often a player breaks but know dealer breaks
> about 28% so assume player would break about
> as often although player has to go first but
> this is offset by not having to hit every
> stiff like dealer does.

> Ouchez, I played that casino and no way are
> they giving 90% pen. Good pen but not 90%

I often think how much fun it would be if you were playing at that game next to me, you should take a little trip sometime. I will buy you a Steak dinner at the restaurant over looking the deep valley with the river running through it, and if we get lucky we can watch the bears hunting fish in the creek as well as all the other game that gathers there.

Just what does a Predator do? let me tell you.

He picks his target, a nice juicy target that will fill his belly for some time. He watches his prey and sizes it up, he scans his path of attack and any ways that his target may flee.

He watches and moves forward, slowly, creeping, like a Panther, as he slowly moves forward, does he reveal himself and make a rush, a move on a rabbit or fowl?? Of course he does not, he is eyeing bigger game and passes up those little morsels, does not weaken his position, but always creeping forward.....creeping, passing that..rabbit...coon...possum, scanning constantly the BIG prize, the panther has discipline and steady nerves and is all sooo focused at the prize at hand.

At last when the time is right, HE SPRINGS FORWARD!! and takes down the "King of the forest" and will now eat for days, mission accomplished. But will the Panther make his kill in one deadly swoop? No!, he will pounce at that right time with MANY deadly moves, hold his prey tightly..bite here..claw there..look into the victims eyes, holding so tight and close, savoring the kill, and playing with the victim!

Yes, he passed up many small morsels and can we fault him for that in light of his ULTIMATE BIG SCORE?

You must marvel, yet fear and respect, the Predator, for once in his grasp, there is no escape!

[Coug Fan]

Ouchez mentions in one of his posts that he is OK with giving up EV on a $5 bet so that he can get more $100 max bets down. Such an aggressive spread will increase the effectiveness of this strategy a bit.

Also, I believe he is only advocating the "no bust" strategy with a minimum bet out, so it would result in less than 5 additional cards. Say an additional 3 cards to be fair. I was unclear on some of the specifics of his system since he tends to write in metaphors at times, but hopefully he will correct me if I am wrong on these specifics.

I think the real question is whether the loss in EV from playing all min bets (not sure of bet spread either, but say TC +1 or less?) with a no-bust strategy will be offset by the increased EV from an additional 3 cards of penetration. My initial guess is that it wouldn't even be close.

[Ouchez]

> Ouchez mentions in one of his posts that he
> is OK with giving up EV on a $5 bet so that
> he can get more $100 max bets down. Such an
> aggressive spread will increase the
> effectiveness of this strategy a bit.

> Also, I believe he is only advocating the
> "no bust" strategy with a minimum
> bet out, so it would result in less than 5
> additional cards. Say an additional 3 cards
> to be fair. I was unclear on some of the
> specifics of his system since he tends to
> write in metaphors at times, but hopefully
> he will correct me if I am wrong on these
> specifics.

> I think the real question is whether the
> loss in EV from playing all min bets (not
> sure of bet spread either, but say TC +1 or
> less?) with a no-bust strategy will be
> offset by the increased EV from an
> additional 3 cards of penetration. My
> initial guess is that it wouldn't even be
> close.

Cough Fan,

Let me first say I am not advocating this system as few games will be found as I play.

There are of course things I cannot say on this forum.

I have been appalled in the past by the number of times I have busted playing one spot against the dealer in a heads up game thus forcing me to play 2 spots all the time and in - situation which we all know is bad.

When I bust I do not see the hole card and when I surrender all but against a ten I don't see the hole card. In a deep game, and I mean deeep, these cards not seen can make a big difference in my game.

Thus at any - situation it is no bust, no surrender except against the ten value, I still split and double and play those in the normal way.

In any neutral situation it is two spots with normal tactics as dictated by the situation.

You may find this strange but in these heads up games I attract a crowd, not of civilians but of casino workers, pit and even the surronding dealers watch.

They seem most interested in the play but take no action against me as I am sure they feel in the long haul they will win. As a matter of fact they have told me this.

As I mentioned there are things I cannot say in a public forum.

[Coug Fan]

The other benefit that people are ignoring is the added cover from these plays. Like Parker said before, the normal perception is that only an idiot would make these types of plays, which no doubt helps your cover considerably (note that I am not in any way implying that you are an idiot).

I would actually be interested in seeing some sims of this strategy and I think that a sim could be generated fairly easily. You have valid points about the added benefits, but my gut instinct is that the negatives would outweigh the positives. This is only my gut instinct, which is why I would be interested in seeing the results of a sim. The other thing you point out is the frequency of surrender, which would be a double edged sword in this analysis. On the one hand, the number of ADDITIONAL cards seen / pen would increase by a greater amount due to not using surrender, but this would also increase the loss in EV quite a bit.

I am a little curious about the rules of this game. From your last message it sounds like they do show you the hole card if the dealer has a ten up. This seems like an unusual twist (of course, this entire rule set seems unusual to me).

[Brick]

If your bankroll allows, move to a max bet of $200. Bet $10 in neutral counts and spread to 2 hands of $5 in negative counts. You will also benefit from eating cards in negative counts. On plus go to one hand. Do surrender in positive counts when called for.
The only reason you can exploit this is because you're using a huge spread. If you were to try this with a 1-8 spread you'd go broke.

Good luck,
Brick

> Cough Fan,

> Let me first say I am not advocating this
> system as few games will be found as I play.

> There are of course things I cannot say on
> this forum.

> I have been appalled in the past by the
> number of times I have busted playing one
> spot against the dealer in a heads up game
> thus forcing me to play 2 spots all the time
> and in - situation which we all know is bad.

> When I bust I do not see the hole card and
> when I surrender all but against a ten I
> don't see the hole card. In a deep game, and
> I mean deeep, these cards not seen can make
> a big difference in my game.

> Thus at any - situation it is no bust, no
> surrender except against the ten value, I
> still split and double and play those in the
> normal way.

> In any neutral situation it is two spots
> with normal tactics as dictated by the
> situation.

> You may find this strange but in these heads
> up games I attract a crowd, not of civilians
> but of casino workers, pit and even the
> surronding dealers watch.

> They seem most interested in the play but
> take no action against me as I am sure they
> feel in the long haul they will win. As a
> matter of fact they have told me this.

> As I mentioned there are things I cannot say
> in a public forum.

[Ouchez]