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Thread: ComboProf: Stoped at Brimley -- won't be back.

  1. #14
    ET Fan

    ET Fan: How are you handling splits and doubles?

    > My thinking is you also have to consider how
    > much you will lose on the $5 you put out
    > with the match play. You can't play the
    > match play by it's self you must put out $5
    > of your own money in order to play it. The
    > match play is worthless less you match it
    > with your own money. Your own money will
    > play just like any hand of blackjack and I
    > used a house advantage of .40% for my
    > example.

    Oh, I get it! Conditional EV. You're assuming the match player will bet exactly what's required, and no more. Works for me, but the casinos hope you are wrong! ;-)

    But this calculation wouldn't hold for an advantage player, would it? An AP may make a certain number of neg EV waiting bets, and plop the coupon on one of them. He'd be playing those hands regardless, so it wouldn't be fair to subtract the house edge from the coupon in that case.

    > I ran another sim(only used 20 million
    > hands) where the player only bets the $5
    > when the true count is greater than or equal
    > to +3. In this case the win was 44.18% loss
    > 47.02% and tie 8.80%. So 44.18/91.20 =
    > 48.77% of time you win. 48.77% x $5. = $2.44
    > and if you include the advantage on your own
    > $5 that you must put out to play which in my
    > sim is 1.98% =.10 you get a value of $2.54
    > if you only bet the match play at true count
    > => +3. Any other thoughts out there
    > concerning if you should add the advantage
    > or disadvantage on the $5 of your own money
    > to the value of the match play coupon.

    Again, the way your simulator records wins/losses on splits and doubles is going to affect these calculations. A double won may only be recorded as a single win, but you get the full value of the match back, in that case, instead of the usual one-half -- assuming you are allowed to match your coupon with real $$$.


  2. #15

    shuffle: Re: Wrong. I say its worth $2.36

    > I ran I sim for a 2 deck game H17, DOA, DAS,
    > and just used basic strategy. Win 43.50%
    > Lose 48.08% Tie 8.42%. Since you bet the
    > match play until you win or lose you ignore
    > ties. So you then convert the above win and
    > losses to a percent basis which is
    > 43.50/91.58 = 47.5% of the time you win
    > 47.5 x $5. = $2.38 less the house advantage
    > on the $5 you must put up as match(.40% $5=
    > $.02) so I say a $5 match play coupoun is
    > worth $2.36.
    > Anybody disagee?

    Oh, I see. Win you when, you can keep playing the coupon over and over again. So win I go into a casino, I should ask if they have specials going on, or coupon booklet to give away. I red on a different message bored somewhere that these "deals" are a great way to gain an advantage in the casino.

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