Results 1 to 3 of 3

Thread: player: A ROR question for Don

  1. #1
    player
    Guest

    player: A ROR question for Don

    Say we are playing some loss Rebate promo. If we deposit 10k, we got 19% back. Based on computer simulation result, if we bet 2000$ each hand on banker in Baccarat and play until we play hit near 4k profit, or leave when we lose whole 10k deposit to get 1900$ loss rebate, the EV for this promo playing is about 320$. The chance to leave with 14k(10K deposit+4k profit) is 70% , the chance to bust and get 1900$ rebate is 30%.

    So we have 10 unit of buyin, what is the ROR for this play? Also, if we need the ROR below 5%, how many buyin do we need? what about 2% ROR?

    Another way to play this is to play until we hit 8k profit which is optimal EV wise, the chance of winning (leave with 18k) is about 50%(pw), chance of bust(leaving with 1.9k lost rebate) is also 50%(pl). The EV for each deposit/play is about 520$. What is the ROR for this play if we have 10 buyin? Also, if we need the ROR below 5%, how many buyin do we need?

    thanks a lot in advance!

  2. #2
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: A ROR question for Don

    Although you've laid out everythihg very nicely, I'm really sorry not to be following your question. You're asking for ROR, which, by definition, is the probability of losing all of your money. You haven't mentioned any other total bankroll other than the $10K that you plan to deposit. Then, by simulation, you state the chance of going bust and losing that $10K is 30%.

    So, why wouldn't that 30% be your ROR? Is it because you'll still have $1,900 left (rebate), which you would then plan to recycle and play again?

    Don

    > Say we are playing some loss Rebate promo. If we
    > deposit 10k, we got 19% back. Based on computer
    > simulation result, if we bet 2000$ each hand on banker
    > in Baccarat and play until we play hit near 4k profit,
    > or leave when we lose whole 10k deposit to get 1900$
    > loss rebate, the EV for this promo playing is about
    > 320$. The chance to leave with 14k(10K deposit+4k
    > profit) is 70% , the chance to bust and get 1900$
    > rebate is 30%.

    > So we have 10 unit of buyin, what is the ROR for this
    > play? Also, if we need the ROR below 5%, how many
    > buyin do we need? what about 2% ROR?

    > Another way to play this is to play until we hit 8k
    > profit which is optimal EV wise, the chance of winning
    > (leave with 18k) is about 50%(pw), chance of
    > bust(leaving with 1.9k lost rebate) is also 50%(pl).
    > The EV for each deposit/play is about 520$. What is
    > the ROR for this play if we have 10 buyin? Also, if we
    > need the ROR below 5%, how many buyin do we need?

    > thanks a lot in advance!

  3. #3
    player
    Guest

    player: Re: A ROR question for Don

    > Although you've laid out everythihg very nicely, I'm
    > really sorry not to be following your question. You're
    > asking for ROR, which, by definition, is the
    > probability of losing all of your money. You haven't
    > mentioned any other total bankroll other than the $10K
    > that you plan to deposit. Then, by simulation, you
    > state the chance of going bust and losing that $10K is
    > 30%.

    > So, why wouldn't that 30% be your ROR? Is it because
    > you'll still have $1,900 left (rebate), which you
    > would then plan to recycle and play again?

    > Don

    Thanks a lot for the reply and sorry for the confusion. My current BR is 10 unit of the deposit, which is 100k for this promo. But I can find more investment to reduce ROR if necessary.

    I mean the chance to bust (30%) is to lose a single deposit and get 1900$ loss rebate from casino. 70% is the probability to win 4k and cash out. Suppose we play 2k each hand.

    What I am asking is the ROR to lose whole 100k (10 unit deposit) bankroll by keeping playing this promo.Stop and cash out when hitting 4k profit or losing 10k deposit and getting 1.9k back,then start a new promo after. I will recycle and play again.
    Also, if we need to reduce the ROR to 5% or 2%, how many units of deposit(times of 10k) do we need?

    thanks a lot again!

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

About Blackjack: The Forum

BJTF is an advantage player site based on the principles of comity. That is, civil and considerate behavior for the mutual benefit of all involved. The goal of advantage play is the legal extraction of funds from gaming establishments by gaining a mathematic advantage and developing the skills required to use that advantage. To maximize our success, it is important to understand that we are all on the same side. Personal conflicts simply get in the way of our goals.