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Thread: Argument with Teammate over return on investment

  1. #1


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    Argument with Teammate over return on investment

    Hi All,


    I have been arguing with a partner whom I’ve been counting with for 18 months in regards to the result of some simulations. We are currently negotiating with investors and I think that he has undersold us, I could be wrong that’s why I’m looking for your feedback. I have attached our simulation results, I’ve calculated the accumulated return in the table below, he however thinks that this is inaccurate and that calculating it simply is the way that the sim was made($261.14x576 hours of game play= $150,416...to me I thought that this would imply that the profits were taken out after every session I do understand that there would be losing sessions and my suggestion is that we re-calculate our bankroll and our betting to operate at the same risk of ruin.


    The main problem is if I am completely incorrect the type of Investment we are looking would have competing projects that could return much more. I’m not saying that I would like to lie or exaggerate figures and I understand there would be problems to overcome like betting X amount with heat.


    I just would like to represent our project fairly while emphasizing profitability and acknowledging it’s weaknesses like any sales pitch should.


    Thanks for taking the time to read this post.




    Bankroll Weekly Return % Week Return Figure Risk of Ruin Week
    $75,000 12% $6267.36 4.2% Week 1
    $81,267.36 12% $9,752.08 4.2% Week 2
    $91,019.44 12% $10,922.33 4.2% Week 3
    $101,941.77 12% $12,233.01 4.2% Week 4
    $114,174.78 12% $13,700.97 4.2% Week 5
    $127,875.75 12% $15,345.09 4.2% Week 6
    $143,220.84 12% $17,186.50 4.2% Week 7
    $160,407.34 12% $19,248.88 4.2% Week 8
    $179,656.22 12% $21,558.74 4.2% Week 9
    $201,214.96 12% $24,145.79 4.2% Week 10
    $225,360.75 12% $27,043.29 4.2% Week 11
    $252,404.04 12% $30,288.48 4.2% Week 12
    $282,692.52 12% $33,923.10 4.2% Week 13
    $316,615.62 12% $37,993.87 4.2% Week 14
    $354,609.49 12% $42,553.13 4.2% Week 15
    $397,162.62 12% $47,659.51 4.2% Week 16
    $444,822.13 12% $53,378.65 4.2% Week 17
    $498,200.78 12% $59,784.09 4.2% Week 18
    $557,984.87 12% $66,958.18 4.2% Week 19
    $624,943.05 12% $74,993.16 4.2% Week 20
    $699,936.21 12% $83,992.34 4.2% Week 21
    $783,928.55 12% $94,071.42 4.2% Week 22
    $877,999.97 12% $105,359.99 4.2% Week 23
    $983,359.96 12% $118,003.19 4.2% Week 24
    $1,101,363.15 12% $132,163.57 4.2% Week 25
    $1,233,526.72 12% $148,023.20 4.2% Week 26
    $1,381,549.92 12% $165,785.99 4.2% Week 27
    $1,547,335.91 12% $185,680.30 4.2% Week 28
    $1,733,016.21 12% $207,961.94 4.2% Week 29
    $1,940,978.15 12% $232,917.37 4.2% Week 30
    $2,173,895.37 12% $260,867.44 4.2% Week 31
    $2,434,762.81 12% $292,171.53 4.2% Week 32
    Total end BR $2,726,934.34

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    Kudos to Tthree for his informative reply.

    ******************************************

    4.2% R.O.R. ? Yikes !

    I dislike 1% -- but I have a massive CASH bankroll.

  3. #3


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    If this is a BJ counting play rule of thumb is about 1/5th of your max bet per hour if you can keep playing. Limits and heat will quickly become a problem. Also saying you can play with 4% ROR and actually living the swings are 2 different things. Just my 2 cents

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    How do you get a 12% weekly return? I never seen any professional blackjack team that count cards with 12% advantage unless it is Hole carding play. Even the most famous MIT Blackjack Team play with a 2.5% advantage.

  5. #5
    Senior Member Tom's Avatar
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    This reminds me a lot of day trading calculations....."theoretically" you can take $10,000 to over $150,000 in less than a year with an average 600 pips (points) per month, which is not difficult if you trade often (I make about 300 pips in a few trades). How many people have actually done it? I can't even name one.

    The returns that your chart proposes are simply not realistic....you are giving a "positive-expectancy only" scenario and any investor with financial sense will see that. What happens if you get barred at every casino in the world?

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    Senior Member UK-21's Avatar
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    12%?

    Quote Originally Posted by seriousplayer View Post
    How do you get a 12% weekly return? I never seen any professional blackjack team that count cards with 12% advantage unless it is Hole carding play. Even the most famous MIT Blackjack Team play with a 2.5% advantage.
    My question as well - where does 12% come from? And from your projection that's a net 12% - net of negative and positive session results for each week? Any investor worth his/her salt will do two minutes research on card counting and no doubt discover that a max advantage of 2.5% to possibly 3% is achievable with ideal (and theoretical) conditions. From your figures it seems you're claiming that a bankroll of $75,000 can be transformed into one of $2.7m in 32 weeks - a return of 3,600% on the original %75K? Are you on drugs?

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    Tthree,

    I partially understand what you are saying. You have stated that :"If your bankroll was $125,000 that would be a 12% return." From the data above the starting bankroll was $75,000 not $125,000. Betting 5 times your bankroll in total will you give you a huge swings your bankroll. How will a bankroll of $125,000 withstand all negative fluctuation?

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    Ahh, if only it were that easy. Unfortunately life and blackjack rarely works out so neatly.

    For what it's worth, your very first calculation is incorrect. 12% of $75,000 is $9000, not 6267.36. And every calculation after that is now off by an amount which will grow at each level. I also believe your estimates of hands per hour and hours per week to be unobtainable, at least for very long.

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    Say if you want to achieve a 2.5% advantage in playing a 6 deck blackjack game with a house edge of .25%. You will have to completely stop betting in negative count situations or make up for all your waiting bet plus you proportional count advantage in one big bet when your count shows an advantage.

    Imagine doing this with 5 times your bankroll in total!

  10. #10


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    Hi All,

    Thanks for you replies,

    The point I’m trying to make is that if you constantly change your betting in proportion to your bankroll that you will make a significant amount more and although using N will yield more conservative results than using a session by session figures it will be vastly inaccurate as it will presume that the bank roll will jump from 75k to it’s long term result instantly...I may be wrong but that’s how I perceive it.

    KJ you are correct, it is actually 8.3% however I should have explained where the return was coming from and that the difference would be taken out for ‘running costs’ 12% return a week would be merely a goal. Which would involve around 36 hours of play a week.

    Zen, I realize the ROR is high and I don’t want it that high however we are just playing around with theoretical figures until we find something we are happy with.

    The strategy in practice isn’t something that I’m concerned with currently, however is there a function in a simulation program that allows all return to be put back into the project? Or is this implied?

    Thanks again.

  11. #11
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    Tthree, with a 0.76%HE game (8 decks, 3:2, H17, SP3, nRSA, NS, D9-11, DAS, OBBO), 1.5/8 pen on average, do you see a $75,000 project getting to $2,726,934.34 in 32 weeks, with or without a decision tree structure?

  12. #12


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    Koz -.-, it doesn’t matter what anyone sees getting to where. It matters what actually happens and is possible. I just want a formula to calculate this with if anyone has one,

  13. #13


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    Thanks Tthree for all your feedback. How would I go about doing it?

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