A casino has a side bet that pays something like 2:1 for a 3 or 4 card bust, 5:1 for a 5 card, 25:1 for a 6 card, and 250:1 for a 7 or more card bust. I'm not sure of the exact odds sorry. 2 deck, H17, DAS, 50% penetration. I use UBZen. Is there a point where this side bet becomes profitable?
mike.havens,
Simply bet equal amounts on BJ and the sidebet every round, then keep hitting until you bust... you cannot lose!
Hope this helps!
Dog Hand
Keep hitting until I bust? I don't believe you. Please elaborate.
> mike.havens,
> Simply bet equal amounts on BJ and the sidebet every
> round, then keep hitting until you bust... you cannot
> lose!
> Hope this helps!
> Dog Hand
if dealer start hitting everything..
Side bet is probably for dealer's hand, not player's hand..
mike.havens,
After pondering your question, it occurred to me that perhaps you meant the sidebet concerned whether or not the DEALER would bust her hand, rather than whether or not the PLAYER would bust his hand.
I checked the Wizard of Odds website (see link below), and found a sidebet called "Buster Blackjack" that's similar to the one you mentioned. I used the paytable shown on the WoO's website in the following calculations, so 3-card and 4-card busts pay 2:1, 5-card busts pay 4:1, 6-card busts pay 12:1, 7-card busts pay 50:1, and more-than-7-card busts pay 250:1 (these happen once every 120882 hands).
I ran a 400-million-round CVData sim for a heads-up UBZII player playing three hands against the dealer for a H17 50% pen game. I modified the playing strategy for the player so that he never busts (that is, he stands on ALL stiff hands) and never splits: this way, the only time the dealer will fail to complete her hand is if the player is dealt three simultaneous BJ's: a prospect I considered unlikely enough to ignore in the calculations. Later, I realized that a simpler change would simply be to have the player play one hand, but ALWAYS HIT a soft-21: this too would insure that the dealer would always have to complete her hand.
The results below show the percentage of each dealer bust at each RC, along with the frequency of the RC's and their raw numbers. The EV's shown are calculated using the WoO's paytable: thus, if your paytable differs from that shown, your EV will also be different.
In fact, for your case I fervently hope the payoffs ARE different, as if you look below you'll see that, with the WoO's paytable, the sidebet is -EV at all RC's except exactly +39... ouch!
.
3-card 4-card 5-card 6-card 7-card >7-card EV % of RC
2 2 4 12 50 250 Payoff:1
TOT 17.248% 9.061% 2.053% 0.248% 0.018% 0.001% -6.45% 100.00% 1,200,000,000
>39 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% -100.0% 0.00% 12
39 50.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 50.00% 0.00% 18
38 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% -100.0% 0.00% 27
37 15.789% 15.789% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% -5.26% 0.00% 57
36 17.857% 10.714% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% -14.29% 0.00% 84
35 16.129% 8.602% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% -25.81% 0.00% 279
34 16.312% 7.092% 0.709% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% -26.24% 0.00% 423
33 17.483% 6.643% 0.699% 0.350% 0.000% 0.000% -19.58% 0.00% 858
32 13.948% 4.721% 1.717% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% -35.41% 0.00% 1,398
31 19.766% 6.316% 1.170% 0.117% 0.000% 0.000% -14.39% 0.00% 2,565
30 18.578% 6.122% 0.844% 0.141% 0.000% 0.000% -19.85% 0.00% 4,263
29 18.517% 8.487% 1.414% 0.086% 0.043% 0.000% -8.62% 0.00% 6,999
28 19.369% 7.534% 1.247% 0.153% 0.025% 0.000% -9.77% 0.00% 11,787
27 18.213% 7.292% 1.373% 0.205% 0.032% 0.000% -12.34% 0.00% 19,008
26 18.387% 7.224% 1.493% 0.190% 0.030% 0.000% -11.69% 0.00% 29,940
25 18.459% 7.047% 1.530% 0.173% 0.006% 0.000% -13.26% 0.00% 48,447
24 18.560% 7.555% 1.377% 0.144% 0.020% 0.000% -11.87% 0.01% 74,934
23 18.511% 7.367% 1.566% 0.167% 0.011% 0.000% -11.82% 0.01% 113,007
22 18.407% 7.644% 1.550% 0.156% 0.019% 0.002% -10.66% 0.01% 172,989
21 18.230% 7.453% 1.516% 0.193% 0.011% 0.001% -12.03% 0.02% 254,877
20 18.273% 7.870% 1.555% 0.197% 0.014% 0.001% -10.29% 0.03% 373,890
19 18.400% 7.812% 1.553% 0.193% 0.014% 0.000% -10.38% 0.04% 539,889
18 18.355% 7.882% 1.631% 0.188% 0.014% 0.000% -9.98% 0.06% 769,560
17 18.299% 7.973% 1.637% 0.194% 0.012% 0.001% -9.57% 0.09% 1,075,515
16 18.358% 8.039% 1.660% 0.194% 0.012% 0.001% -9.20% 0.12% 1,490,439
15 18.235% 8.097% 1.707% 0.196% 0.014% 0.001% -8.96% 0.17% 2,030,547
14 18.334% 8.180% 1.722% 0.202% 0.015% 0.001% -8.26% 0.23% 2,734,410
13 18.273% 8.231% 1.745% 0.200% 0.013% 0.000% -8.35% 0.30% 3,637,831
12 18.298% 8.275% 1.746% 0.212% 0.015% 0.001% -7.88% 0.40% 4,759,408
11 18.229% 8.337% 1.780% 0.204% 0.016% 0.001% -7.76% 0.51% 6,154,458
10 18.211% 8.388% 1.785% 0.211% 0.015% 0.001% -7.52% 0.66% 7,867,001
9 18.134% 8.455% 1.806% 0.211% 0.016% 0.001% -7.40% 0.83% 9,910,342
8 18.090% 8.547% 1.823% 0.220% 0.016% 0.001% -7.07% 1.03% 12,350,827
7 18.028% 8.575% 1.832% 0.220% 0.016% 0.001% -7.15% 1.26% 15,166,446
6 17.989% 8.625% 1.849% 0.222% 0.016% 0.001% -7.03% 1.54% 18,423,024
5 17.920% 8.691% 1.889% 0.223% 0.016% 0.001% -6.85% 1.84% 22,082,731
4 17.878% 8.745% 1.895% 0.224% 0.016% 0.001% -6.63% 2.18% 26,116,104
3 17.791% 8.777% 1.913% 0.226% 0.016% 0.001% -6.78% 2.54% 30,472,208
2 17.750% 8.819% 1.935% 0.232% 0.017% 0.001% -6.57% 2.92% 35,064,666
1 17.692% 8.864% 1.952% 0.235% 0.017% 0.001% -6.48% 3.31% 39,706,010
0 17.621% 8.903% 1.967% 0.236% 0.016% 0.001% -6.45% 3.69% 44,273,741
-1 17.551% 8.962% 1.992% 0.239% 0.017% 0.001% -6.36% 4.04% 48,474,874
-2 17.468% 8.988% 2.009% 0.240% 0.017% 0.001% -6.38% 4.35% 52,190,858
-3 17.410% 9.042% 2.026% 0.244% 0.018% 0.001% -6.27% 4.58% 54,997,370
-4 17.335% 9.066% 2.044% 0.247% 0.018% 0.001% -6.23% 4.73% 56,797,434
-5 17.244% 9.116% 2.064% 0.252% 0.018% 0.001% -6.20% 4.78% 57,361,581
-6 17.277% 9.060% 2.047% 0.246% 0.018% 0.001% -6.43% 22.31% 267,691,750
-7 17.089% 9.185% 2.102% 0.255% 0.019% 0.001% -6.21% 4.54% 54,480,678
-8 16.998% 9.234% 2.125% 0.258% 0.019% 0.001% -6.11% 4.27% 51,222,963
-9 16.931% 9.253% 2.143% 0.260% 0.019% 0.001% -6.16% 3.91% 46,901,763
-10 16.819% 9.293% 2.159% 0.264% 0.019% 0.001% -6.23% 3.49% 41,930,941
-11 16.754% 9.334% 2.188% 0.270% 0.019% 0.001% -6.11% 3.03% 36,403,789
-12 16.605% 9.383% 2.200% 0.270% 0.019% 0.001% -6.30% 2.59% 31,023,546
-13 16.491% 9.424% 2.233% 0.278% 0.020% 0.001% -6.25% 2.14% 25,711,146
-14 16.373% 9.468% 2.257% 0.280% 0.021% 0.001% -6.20% 1.74% 20,900,512
-15 16.259% 9.507% 2.283% 0.287% 0.021% 0.001% -6.27% 1.39% 16,635,835
-16 16.151% 9.539% 2.304% 0.288% 0.022% 0.001% -6.33% 1.09% 13,077,766
-17 15.963% 9.600% 2.349% 0.293% 0.022% 0.001% -6.39% 0.84% 10,058,071
-18 15.843% 9.611% 2.359% 0.305% 0.022% 0.001% -6.53% 0.64% 7,672,363
-19 15.685% 9.677% 2.398% 0.300% 0.022% 0.001% -6.75% 0.48% 5,767,538
-20 15.558% 9.723% 2.415% 0.313% 0.021% 0.001% -6.59% 0.36% 4,294,860
-21 15.392% 9.753% 2.449% 0.315% 0.023% 0.001% -6.71% 0.26% 3,156,690
-22 15.261% 9.754% 2.460% 0.326% 0.023% 0.001% -7.09% 0.19% 2,294,790
-23 15.004% 9.827% 2.481% 0.322% 0.021% 0.001% -7.71% 0.14% 1,640,064
-24 14.963% 9.811% 2.542% 0.313% 0.026% 0.001% -7.22% 0.10% 1,159,989
-25 14.859% 9.860% 2.551% 0.338% 0.026% 0.000% -7.27% 0.07% 806,820
-26 14.601% 9.851% 2.595% 0.323% 0.027% 0.001% -7.81% 0.05% 551,535
-27 14.496% 10.004% 2.565% 0.344% 0.018% 0.002% -7.85% 0.03% 373,893
-28 14.117% 10.117% 2.648% 0.369% 0.023% 0.001% -7.78% 0.02% 246,894
-29 13.768% 10.101% 2.680% 0.322% 0.026% 0.000% -9.47% 0.01% 161,088
-30 13.900% 10.015% 2.667% 0.369% 0.026% 0.000% -8.79% 0.01% 103,251
-31 14.000% 9.656% 2.772% 0.254% 0.023% 0.000% -10.71% 0.01% 66,021
-32 13.688% 10.353% 2.643% 0.364% 0.044% 0.000% -7.70% 0.00% 41,205
-33 12.880% 10.494% 3.003% 0.297% 0.000% 0.000% -11.00% 0.00% 25,272
-34 13.470% 10.218% 2.794% 0.319% 0.000% 0.000% -10.82% 0.00% 15,033
-35 13.229% 9.342% 2.932% 0.614% 0.034% 0.000% -7.91% 0.00% 8,799
-36 11.369% 9.842% 2.602% 0.396% 0.057% 0.000% -15.33% 0.00% 5,304
-37 12.112% 10.511% 2.903% 0.701% 0.100% 0.000% -3.40% 0.00% 2,997
-38 14.004% 11.311% 2.154% 0.180% 0.000% 0.000% -10.95% 0.00% 1,671
-39 14.035% 9.123% 3.509% 0.351% 0.000% 0.000% -8.42% 0.00% 855
<-39 11.911% 11.634% 3.601% 0.554% 0.000% 0.000% -4.16% 0.00% 1,083
Hope this helps!
Dog Hand
Thank-you for all your help. Yes that is the bet I am talking about but I will have to double check to see if the odds are exactly the same.
Only thing is the dealer has to finish the hand even if the player busts. So the player could still play correct basic or counting strategy rather than standing on stiffs and not splitting etc.
mike.havens,
Only thing is the dealer has to finish the hand even if the player busts. So the player could still play correct basic or counting strategy rather than standing on stiffs and not splitting etc.
That's good... it makes the sidebet somewhat more valuable than without that proviso. I certainly wasn't advocating using the strategy I employed in the sim. I used it merely to ensure that the dealer did indeed finish her hand, since CVData isn't flexible enough to "know" that the dealer needs to finish her hand even if all the players' hands are already decided.
Dog Hand
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