Modern Blackjack nth Edition

On card counting forums, the question is often asked “At what count do you win the majority of hands?” The long-known answer is at no count. Even at high counts, you win fewer than half of the hands. You make money because of Blackjacks, doubles, splits, insurance, and betting.

But, what about hole-card play? With hole-carding, you get a peek at the dealer’s downcard. Surely, you will win far more hands as you have such important information. And it is well-known that the advantages can be huge. So, I performed a couple of sims. I chose six decks, S17, DAS, 80% penetration. For the hole-carding strategy, I used a compromise strategy. That is, ridiculous plays like hitting 19 because the dealer has 20 are not taken. I assumed 100% of hole-cards are seen, but never took insurance. In practice, a hole-carder would sometimes take insurance, but must be careful not to win every insurance bet. The hole-carder did not use indexes. For the card counter, I used Hi-Lo with full indexes. Results:

What we see is that the hole-carder wins more hands, but still does not hit 50%, even at a Hi-Lo count of +10. An enormous advantage can be realized without winning half of the hands.