View RSS Feed

Modern Blackjack nth Edition

Won Hands when Hole-Carding

Rate this Entry
On card counting forums, the question is often asked “At what count do you win the majority of hands?” The long-known answer is at no count. Even at high counts, you win fewer than half of the hands. You make money because of Blackjacks, doubles, splits, insurance, and betting.

But, what about hole-card play? With hole-carding, you get a peek at the dealer’s downcard. Surely, you will win far more hands as you have such important information. And it is well-known that the advantages can be huge. So, I performed a couple of sims. I chose six decks, S17, DAS, 80% penetration. For the hole-carding strategy, I used a compromise strategy. That is, ridiculous plays like hitting 19 because the dealer has 20 are not taken. I assumed 100% of hole-cards are seen, but never took insurance. In practice, a hole-carder would sometimes take insurance, but must be careful not to win every insurance bet. The hole-carder did not use indexes. For the card counter, I used Hi-Lo with full indexes. Results:

What we see is that the hole-carder wins more hands, but still does not hit 50%, even at a Hi-Lo count of +10. An enormous advantage can be realized without winning half of the hands.

Submit "Won Hands when Hole-Carding" to Google Submit "Won Hands when Hole-Carding" to Digg Submit "Won Hands when Hole-Carding" to Submit "Won Hands when Hole-Carding" to StumbleUpon

Tags: None Add / Edit Tags


  1. Three's Avatar
    Do you win more hands than you lose? I believe the 42% win rate includes pushes. Isn't no hole carding more like 47% or 48% win rate with pushes ignored? I think that adjustment would push the hole carder to winning more than 50% of resolved (won and lost) bets.

About Blackjack: The Forum

BJTF is an advantage player site based on the principles of comity. That is, civil and considerate behavior for the mutual benefit of all involved. The goal of advantage play is the legal extraction of funds from gaming establishments by gaining a mathematic advantage and developing the skills required to use that advantage. To maximize our success, it is important to understand that we are all on the same side. Personal conflicts simply get in the way of our goals.