Modern Blackjack nth Edition

Dealer bust rates rarely interest me, although many of the worst books on Blackjack discuss them a great deal. They simply don’t mean that much. But, the questions keep on coming. Modern Blackjack Page 438 discusses overall dealer ending hands by count. But, one set of stats I have never seen is the dealer bust rates by count and by dealer upcard. So, for the next time I’m asked, I put together a chart that I’ll post here.

Dealer bust rate by count and upcard

True counts from-5 to +5 are on the x-axis. The percent of the time the dealer busts is on the y-axis. The lines give the bust rate for each of the ten dealer upcards. A no-bust strategy was used such that the dealer would nearly always play.

No surprises here. We see the red line at the bottom showing very low dealer bust rates when the dealer has an ace up, increasing as the count increases very slightly. At the top, varying from bust rates of 33% to 47% are the bust rates for upcards of 2 through 6. An upcard of six saw the highest bust rates, except at the higher counts, where dealer upcard of 5 became worse. 50% was never reached, although it looks like it might with a high enough count.

Upcards of 7 through 10 showed much lower busts, dropping as the count increased since the dealer is more likely to have a pat hand with a higher count.

Particulars: 6 Decks, 3 players, HiLo, flooring, 75% penetration.