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Modern Blackjack nth Edition

Blackjack Dealer Hands by True Count

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Page 466 of Modern Blackjack provides a chart on overall dealer hand totals and bust frequencies. But, I was recently asked for a chart that provides this information by true count. Why not?

I ran 21 sims, six-deck, S17, DAS, 75% penetration, six players using the Hilo card counting strategy. True counts of -120 through +10 were simmed. Six players were simmed to ensure that the dealer must nearly always complete her hand. Note: As explained on page 466, the number of players affects these rates.

Below you will see the results. Pretty, but a bit confusing. The red line, depicting a true count of -10, sticks out. It sees the highest number of dealer 17s, 18s and 19s, and the lowest number of 20s and Blackjacks. +10 shows the opposite. Hardly surprising. The second chart shows just the lines for -10, 0 and +10 and is easier to see, albeit less cool looking.

Note: Information like bust rates is very popular among voodoo system sellers, but has little to do with normal Blackjack play. That does not mean the information is useless, as previously meaningless information often finds uses in new side bets and bonuses.

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