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Modern Blackjack nth Edition

Is the Dravot Insurance Tweak Worth the Effort

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This is for readers of Color of Blackjack as I will not discuss the contents of a copyrighted text until it becomes more common knowledge. Basically, the tweak is an improvement to insurance betting. The question – is there a gain and is it worth going after.

The sims are six deck, S17, DAS, 80% penetration, four players. Betting spread are 1-10, 1-15 and 1-20. System is Color of Blackjack. Tweak and no tweak are simmed:



We see a slight gain from the tweak. It may not look like that much, but at 2.6% to 3%, it is as much as using risk-averse indexes. We cannot expect great gains from minor changes. We must determine for ourselves if such extra work is worth the effort. We should also consider that we may make additional errors.

Now, I also ran the same set of sims for six players instead of four. It turns out, for these sims, results for six players with no tweak, were as good as four players with the tweak. It also turns out that adding the tweak does not materially affect the results with six players. Both of these results appear, at first glance, not to make sense. But, consider the situation. The reason the tweak has an effect is that there is an error in the way that insurance is bet with ace-reckoned strategies. Aces are included in the count in the wrong manner for this decision. The tweak is merely correcting the error. The degree to which this error presents itself, and the degree to which the tweak helps, is affected by the number of players. Food for thought – it may even be that the number of players affects the insurance index irrespective of the tweak. That is, with or without the tweak, perhaps the ideal insurance index varies by number of players.

But, that’s another story.

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