Modern Blackjack nth Edition

When you are playing a six deck Blackjack game, and using KO or REKO, you start the count at -20. But, you do not get to bet until the card count has increased a fair amount. The question was asked on my forum, how often does this happen? Good question. I ran 32 simulations. All were six deck, S17, DAS, three players. Penetration varied from 65% to 80%. I measured the percentage of shoes where the count reached levels of -2 through +4. Below are the results.

Obviously, with a deeper penetration, you are more likely to reach a desired count. Just as obvious, if the desired count is higher, you will reach that count in a lower percentage of shoes. So, at a penetration of 80% (on the left) we see that we reach a count of -3 83% of the time (at the top). At a penetration of 65%, we reach a count of +4 a dismal 25.1% of the time (bottom-right).

The data can be found below.