Card Counting Costs the Casino Industry Millions each Year

Zender and others have been preaching this for years. For some reason, those whom they consult do not take it to heart. Such irony......

On many occassions I have asked dealers about their counter measures, penetration in particular. I have not found one yet that will admit that they know why they are doing what they are doing. Usually they respond that they are just doing what they have been trained or directed to do. I believe that most dealers do not know why. I wonder whether those giving them direction know why. It seems so many of these counter measures have been built into the standard training that the reason it was put there in in the first place has long been forgotten. I have seen this phenomona in my own workplace. That is why I question the accepted practices more and more. They may no longer be relavent and could be costing us money.

Some have followed Zenders advice to great games and record profits and amped protection. Foxwoods comes to mind. i am aware of others but will decline listing them.

Below is a link to another article by Zender in which he recommends pen of 5.5 /6 to casino managment.

http://www.lastresortconsulting.com/..._game_fear.pdf

During his experience as a manager at the Aladin he increased the pen to 5.5/6. The casino showed a blackjack hold that ranged from 15% to 17% at a time when the strip casino blackjack hold ranged from 13% to 14%

Looking at the most recent historical trend for entire state Nevada for blackjack, the hold in 2012 was 10.9% (http://gaming.unlv.edu/reports.html). The hold for blackjack has been in decline for 20 years.

Year	Hold %
1992	14.25
1993	14.45
1994	14.15
1995	13.85
1996	13.57
1997	14
1998	13.08
1999	12.94
2000	12.56
2001	12.92
2002	13.01
2003	12.91
2004	12.31
2005	11.73
2006	12.28
2007	12.4
2008	11.58
2009	11.31
2010	10.68
2011	11.41
2012	10.87

Then looking at the number of tables and the casino win for blackjack in Nevada also shows a game in decline (http://gaming.unlv.edu/reports.html).

Twenty-One (Blackjack)
Year	Units	%?	Win Amount	%?	WPU	WUD	Win %
2000	3,682	n/a	1,174,404	3.13%	$ 318,958	871.47	12.56
2001	3,605	-2.09%	1,155,470	-1.61%	$ 320,519	878.13	12.92
2002	3,425	-4.99%	1,102,631	-4.57%	$ 321,936	882.02	13.01
2003	3,349	-2.22%	1,118,207	1.41%	$ 333,893	914.77	12.91
2004	3,260	-2.66%	1,195,237	6.89%	$ 366,637	1,001.74	12.3
2005	3,273	0.4%	1,243,859	4.07%	$ 380,036	1,041.20	11.73
2006	3,211	-1.89%	1,382,003	11.11%	$ 430,396	1,179.17	12.28
2007	3,136	-2.34%	1,420,549	2.79%	$ 452,981	1,241.04	12.4
2008	3,044	-2.93%	1,254,991	-11.65%	$ 412,284	1,126.46	11.58
2009	2,927	-3.84%	1,008,525	-19.64%	$ 344,559	944	11.31
2010	2,867	-2.05%	975,665	-3.26%	$ 340,309	932.35	10.68
2011	2,801	-2.30%	1,044,114	7.02%	$ 372,765	1,021.27	11.41
2012	2,739	-2.21%	995,472	-4.66%	$ 363,444	993.02	10.37
Trend	-943	-25.61%		-15.24%	$ 44,485	149.8	-2.19
Definitions and Notes
Units: total number of slot machines or table games
%?: the percentage change from the previous year’s totals
Win Amount: the total amount won from gamblers, in thousands: add “000”for total win
%?: the percentage change from the previous year’s totals
WPU: Win per unit: total win divided by total number of units WUD: Win per unit per day
Win : Percentage of total money gambled (handle) that casinos kept; also known as hold percentage Trend: the overall up/down trend for the years in question
All data taken from Nevada Gaming Revenue Reports for their respective years

There are fewer tables now than the year 2000 (down 943 units or 25%).

The win per table is up ($44,485) which leaves the overall win down 15%.

With the increased house edge from, h17 and 6;5 occuring over this same time period, the casino win continues to decline. With the declining conditions, fewer players decide to play blackjack or if they do it's for a shorter period.

When will casino executives ever believe Zender about blackjack? Or will carnival games continue to take over the pits?

Zach the ones that did are laughing all the way to the bank with record blackjack profits.

Tthree, you are suggesting some casinos have in fact followed Zenders advice and are better off for it. Where do you feel that puts us when playing at those casinos? I for one wish some of my regular places would be doing more of what Zender has advised. Am I off base with that? Keep in mind, though I have maintained a consistent win rate (with normal variance), I play for small stakes.

Part of the Zender model is amped game protection especially on higher limit tables. That means we better have a very good act or play short hit and run.

Originally Posted by Tthree

Part of the Zender model is amped game protection especially on higher limit tables. That means we better have a very good act or play short hit and run.

I am, probably like many, perplexed as to how professional business managers (corporate casinos) can ignore this data and continue to do the wrong thing. I extrapolated some of Zender's result nationwide and found staggering numbers in the billions that the casinos are giving away for fear of card counters. It makes no sense.

Perhaps, sending a report like this to the Wall Street gambling company analyst might get some pressure applied. It is my experience that they understand math. With the earnings record of late, leaving money on the table of this magnitude would get some serious questions.

Now, I suspect most of us would welcome deeper penetration but would not welcome the amped heat. Another tradeoff in the cat and mouse with players and casinos.

Are there other factors such as economy and other table games emerging and bj sidebets that contribute to the decline?

The casino are paranoid for sure . I have never seen more than 3 proficient counters in about 500 hours of play.Even when i see them they are not a threat making probably less than $100 EV /session .Their sessions ranged from 20 mins to 3 hrs or so. I do actively look for counters when i played cause i am just curious and do not want to bump into any.

Article: Casino Industry cost players billions

Article: Casino executives lack of understanding of their own business costs them millions.

Guys, I have been counting for 15 yrs and play probably 25-55 hrs a week on some off weeks, I'm not a high roller, but can wager a good 10-15 grand a night. Counting doesn't do anything more than shave off some of the house edge. It can even cause you to lose a lot bigger at times and I suspect that more than 90% of the people that do count, lose a lot more until they realise that it's not what people think it is. I gets so tickled and equally frustrated everytime I see an article from yet another "legend" of blackjack trying to sell people on the idea that fortunes can be made at it. It's simply not true, and if you have a huge bankroll, so what? You'r only going to get a small % as profit and trust me, even with a huge count as big as 20+ and big balls, who is to say that the dealer won't get all them pretty colorful cards and you get hard 12s that you have to bust knowing that everything is "big" coming out of the shoe. It is and will always be a catch 22,... a gamble.

So, to sum it up. The card counters aren't costing jack to the casinos.

For the guy that posted about the dealers and the floor: I know it seems that they are all in on a conspiricy, but it isn't true. The reason I know is that I actually play blackjack with a lot of floor managers and dealers and have helped teach a dozen or so dealers to deal. No I don't work for a casino and never have, but I can assure you that the bosses and dealers that were keen to counters and odds died with the old Vegas. Now days they have built in computer chips and embeded chips on the tables and track your every move, bet and play. But it doesn't matter. Until the day comes that you will be able to see that down card that the dealer has,... the edge will always be on thier side and they will continue to rake in billions. The reason they are losing profits is simply the fact that people don't play as much as they used to because they get tired of just giving away money and never winning due to the decline in rules, comps, etc. Just my 2 cents.

The odds breaker.

Your comments on ineffectiveness of counting are extreme but I do agree with most of your posts. Most would be counters don't have the discipline or the BR to be effective. They lose as much or more money than the rare birds that have the skillz, patience and BR to survive the large negative swings that will happen. The more interest in counting the more losing counters in the casinos betting bigger than they would otherwise and losing in the long run. Overall the casinos make a lot from counters and lose a lot from countermeasures designed to thwart counters. Just protect against the well BR counter without effecting the game being dealt should be all the countermeasures necessary. That is simply checking out those big bettors. They are the treats and it shouldn't take much in the way of manpower to do this. Then they are protected from the few hundred people that are threats in this country and can get all the revenue from the extra hands per hour deeper penetration allows.