According to Thorp's paper, the one to one mapping makes it the second or later rounds have the same chance of getting the exact same sequence of cards that used in the first round. (enough cards to...
I think it is evident that Don's conjecture is correct for the simplified model I outlined above. Since the player always gets the first and third card in the deck and then stands in the first round,...
No. I certainly expect that your statement will hold for the simplified model if it holds for the general real-world model.
I just want to make sure you agree that this simplified model is an...
For me at least, here is where the discussion "derailed," as you put it:
This is incorrect, or, if we're being generous, grossly misleading given the specific context of the discussion early...
You are correct, thank you for pressing this question! I was missing this and a lot of other possible outcomes of a round; using your helpful examples, I tracked down the problem, and updated the...
Well the egalite bets are already a publically known vulnerability, which is why I mentioned them. Unless you're referring to comments about the tie wager? I could go back and edit the posts if it...
Let me rephrase that more clearly: What I meant is that in the case of SPL1, the threshold at which the EV begins to be influenced by the cut card should be higher than it is for SPL3. And that’s...
Actually, WITHOUT a cut card, any fixed strategy (Basic Strategy, Never-Bust, Mimic-the-Dealer, etc.), as long as we don’t run out of cards, will comply with Thorp’s paper.
Sincerely,
Cac
As I said, no doubt about it. Not predicting the over. Just pointing out that the methodology for arriving at the selection is somewhat questionable. It's not like the oddsmakers aren't privy to the...
I don't think 'undeniably' means what you think it means.
You didn't specify which basic strategy and the number of rounds. Am I allowed to define the players strategy to be 'always stand on the...
good points
I accept your criticism as being valid
I did use a cheat sheet which projected him for 37.7 points which is well over his regular season average and well over his numbers for the 4...
And which game was that, where he exceeded 40.5, with 46? Oh! Wednesday night, when he had to step up, because of Tatum's injury. Don't get me wrong; I'm not making any prediction about tonight, but...
