ZK, do you not remember this entire summer where T3 and I slammed you for your "fantasy" game where you were going to "show us all" when you worked 2 jobs to make that 100k bankroll so that your top bet could land in that $2500 range? I mean, there's like a thousand and a half posts in response/argument to you and your "fantasy" game, where you sit there and belittle, berate, and abscond others for the way they play, but you yourself refrain from playing.
A a really solid example of that, is admitted through your own lack of play. 150 hours on the year? During the summer I would net that in just under two weeks, let alone the entirety of the year, and I'd be hesitant to believe the "accuracy" of both your "winnings" and logged hours, as I'm fairly sure that you posted, after T3 railed you on your "fairytale" game, about your hours and you said you had MORE hours than just the 150 you say here, logged.
The point I keep trying to make to you, and it falls on deaf ears EVERY.....SINGLE.......TIME is that you WILL NOT be able to get away with this "fantasy" game you keep talking about, in a live setting.
You can trash talk the "game" all you want at lower EV levels saying its not worth your time, but I've probably made more in the last 8 months of play than you'll make working a full time job in a year, and I play those "shitty lower EV" games.
You need a dose of reality, and that reality is this: Whatever "game" and "strategy" you have in mind for when you come up with your arbitrary 100k bankroll, go ahead it throw it out the window. The second any store sees a consistent 2x400 or 2x500 bet going out, while you flat bet 25 you will have a LARGE target on your back. Suffice to say, if you were playing lower stakes games, the ones you seem to despite but know very little about, the floor wouldn't even bat an eye at a 2x80 or 2x100 bet, flat betting 5. And you keep talking about your "face" as a large reason to "wait" until you can play higher stakes, but, you're looking at this COMPLETELY wrong. If you've got a 100k bankroll built, that bankroll is established to last indefinitely, however, if you're betting 2x400 or 2x500 as your top bet, with a minimum of 1x25 as your low end, the Casinos will be all over your ass in a heartbeat, so what good is that 100k bankroll going to do you in the long run if you can't use it?
At that point your face is likely going to be plastered everywhere and you'll literally have to disguise yourself to get any action whatsoever, likely resulting in session lengths lower than 45 minutes on average, and severely limiting your cards seen to establish a strong enough count in the first place. Given your aggressive WI/WO and particular counting system, you'll be exposing yourself in play alone very quickly, and the second a dealer catches a couple glances of you back counting, then entering her table to lay some "hefty" bets, she'll be calling out "Checks play" frequently, drawing floor attention to you. He's going to relay that to the EITS as he'll undoubtedly suspect you are counting, they'll backtrack every step of your way through the casino, notice that you were back counting, entering a positive deck, and nail your ass to the cross within about 35 minutes of that "alert" call.
At this point, you're going to suffer through some very bad BO's and Ban/Bar scenarios, and be forced to travel, heavily cutting into your BR as you'll be traveling a lot with the Ban/Bar frequencies, and likely end up having your face plastered on a "count" list in just about every casino out there.
So tell me again how $27/hr isn't "good enough" for you (using your numbers). Hell, I'm pretty sure I'm averaging right around that number or slightly better on worse rules, "grinding" out my wins.
Or you can ignore the advice and get backed off from every casino you enter, and if that's the case, please come visit the midwest so I can watch it happen
That's exactly right, and at the end of the day, its all about the information we can gather at each Casino in respect to their tolerance, insight, and ability to establish my skill level. I have to hide this, I have to be very good, very efficient, and very sneaky about it, even at my smaller bet and spread levels. Luckily, at these levels there is quite a bit more tolerance and you've got PB's who literally don't care if you're going to take a few hundred dollars a night from them, as long as you aren't hitting the higher stake games on the regular, or with team play.
Frowned upon, Illegal, say what you will but the Casino business is probably the worst "sore loser" there has ever been.
I honestly don't think he can wrap his head around the idea of doing this for a "living" rather than that "pipedream" he has in his mind. Every single long term player that I've met, had brief conversations with, or read about (like KJ here) have all but admitted the fact that it is impossible to do this over the "long term" if you're focused on maximizing EV and the potential of your BR to get every advantage possible. Almost all of these guys that I've spoken to or read about, have stressed the importance of tolerance, session frequencies, and the smaller aspects of the game, like Cover.
Coincidentally, in ZK's case, he's saying a tax free job making 4k per/mo "isn't worth it. Lets think about that for a minute. 40 hours a week, 160 hours per month, 4k tax free. That is a SOLID job in ANY state in this country, and you get all the free delicious food and drinks that your heart could desire. Where's the downside in ANY of that? Honestly.
You have to crawl before you walk, as they say. 4k/mo is essentially what your average is netting you, tax free. That's one job, not two, and likely the equivalent of what you make now, in half the time "spent". On top of that, you're growing your available BR every month getting closer to your fantasy figure of 100k, and you won't have to wait for that Garbage stock ELTP, of which you already missed the only shot of "serious" profit you'll ever see, to go up enough so you can get out. You're looking at a minimum of holding that bonehead stock for 36 more months before you ever see a stable, sizable return, from a Penny stock that you should have been out of LONG ago.
Now apply what he's averaging, though likely unrealistic, inaccurate, and too few sessions to gain a real number from, but alas, we'll use it.
If my average session comes in at 8 hours, that's just under 19 trips to net that 150 hours, and I'll do that in a month pretty easily. He'd be generating about 213.33 dollars per session, roughly, with an expectation just slightly over 4,053 dollars per month. Lets say there's 30 days in the month, he's looking at 19/30 trips per month, or essentially playing 2 out of every 3 days. That's a pretty COMFY job for 4k/mo tax free. Yearly net should land roughly around $48.6k dollars, tax free, and he'll have his bankroll set aside in two years based on wins alone.
Though, of course, i suspect there's some inaccuracy here, but lets be honest here for 37.5 hours per week, 4k/mo tax free is a goldmine for guys as young as ZK who have no experience, a degree, and refuse to take entry level "bullshit" jobs.
Originally Posted by Blitzkrieg
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