We all know the flaw to the likelihood statement made by "Smartblackjack". We see it a lot. We are playing with a fat edge and the poppy doubling hard 12 and splitting everything regardless of the dealer upcard keeps catching the cards while we get crap cards. Even being the only one at the table with a 2% edge and being the only loser while theploppies are playing so bad the casino has far more than a 2% advantage over them.