Realistic expectations and survey?

[Nyne]

I agree but its not about what the software says, its comfort level, playing rated and the heat issue. I mostly play the games where they know me and I know them. Any spread over about 1-12 or 1-15 is asking for heat and scrutiny. Thus, at the 6 deck, $10 min. table, where I am playing two hands of $10 in TC=0 and dropping to one hand of $10 in negative counts, my bet spread is 1-12 to 1-15 (or $120-$150). When I am playing DD at the HL rooms in abigger city casino, I usually play $25 minimum and keep it to a maximum of 1-10 spread.

I might do differently if I go someplace and play unrated or do short sessions and do not plan on travelling to those casinos more often.

You are aware that you don't have to drop to table minimum? I'm not advocating going $10-2x250 here. Idk why I bother... You don't even know basic strategy so I don't know why I'm giving you advice on betting properly.

[Jabberwocky]

I'm at 2*10

[ZeeBabar]

You are aware that you don't have to drop to table minimum? I'm not advocating going $10-2x250 here. Idk why I bother... You don't even know basic strategy so I don't know why I'm giving you advice on betting properly.

Nyne, taking a cheap shot like that is not you! I confused it, stating that you do not split 9's with 8-9 showing, I was thinking more about you do not double a 9 versus 8-9 except in rare situations. Now, regarding your other advice, I play in a small town casino (most often) where there are only 2 6 deck tables with $10 minimum and checks play is called out when you put out a $100 bet, where there is no one betting Green 90% of the time. I dont play higher Max because it draws attention excessively. The other places I play about 50% of the time are in a big city with several casinos and DD games. There I play Green.

I understand your giving me advice. The same advice was given to me, I think by KJ, that I should keep my max bet the same whether I play $10 min. tables or $25 min. Tables. However, in my particular situation of a small town,most always playing among red chippers, 'Check play being called after every bet exceeding $100 and logevity of importance to me in that casino, I opt for the Max to be under $150 at the 6 deck tables.

[Jabberwocky]

"Do not bet more than 1% of your bankroll on any given hand." - Kevin Blackwood, "Play Blackjack like the Pros".

[22 Dreams]

I was thinking more about you do not double a 9 versus 8-9 except in rare situations.

Please provide a list of the "rare situations" in which you would double 9 vs 9.

[stopgambling]

think about it . if you dont know then you dont need to know.

[MJGolf]

Not that I want to disclose anything, but I think you need a number between 7 and 8. *wink

Don't get too sensitive about basic strategy comments. They are right; you have to know it cold so you can VARY your playing decisions IF the indexes warrant it. Nyne isn't only one who espouses that advice. RWM's initial question before he even GIVES advice on AP is: What do you do with A7? If you can't answer that, then he thinks you need to study and come back.

[KJ]

2013 my answer is #3 (the one and only year so far I have touched 6 figures from counting). 2012 my answer was# 4. My EV from card counting is right around that #4 mark, so that is where I expect to come in most years with an occasional above EV year touching #3, as I did last year. This year so far I am barely at #6.

On one of the post here, BigPlayer says "There is an income ceiling to card counting beyond which it's hard to pass. (low to mid six figures per year is about the max that someone can make from straight counting assuming their style of play doesn't get them barred everywhere they could play)."

Is there a link to where big player said "mid six figures from straight counting"? This sounds very high to me and I would like to see what context he was talking about. Maybe that range is possible with team call-in play, but I don't see it from solo, straight counting play. I completely agree that there is an income ceiling from (solo) card counting. I think it is much less than mid-six figure range though. I would think the ceiling is just about 6 figures.

I am basing this on my own level of play, spreading green to mid black. I play a lot and as I said, my own expectation from counting is in the $75-$80K range, with the possibility of touching $100k, on a good, above expectation year. So for a solo counter to get above my numbers, he/she is going to have to play a lot more than I do, which isn't likely. I play 80,000 to 100,000 rounds per year. It is unlikely many players would play more than that.

The second possibility is to play higher stakes than I do. But that also becomes problematic as far as longevity. Max bets in the mid black range (under $500) are well tolerated most places, especially in short bursts. Once you get into top wagers above $500, and into 4 figures, you and your play will begin to be noticed and that starts a whole spiral into a situation where you lose games and opportunities and are forced to play less. Of course the answer to this is if you are going to play higher stakes, you have to travel and wear out all those places that blackjack is now available. But I don't think that will take as long as it used to. Technology is making it harder to stay in front of that situation.

So the bottom line for me, is I think that ceiling is right at $100k, if you want to do it for a number of years. If you want to play higher stakes and make more than $100k, you may be able to do that for a year or two, but not with any kind of longevity. It is basically the "shearing vs slaughter" discussion. But again, I would like to either read the context that bigplayer said "mid six figure" or have him weigh in.

[Nikky_Flash]

Is there a link to where big player said "mid six figures from straight counting"? This sounds very high to me and I would like to see what context he was talking about.
...would like to either read the context that bigplayer said "mid six figure" or have him weigh in.

hi kj, towards the bottom :

http://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sho...highlight=pent

.... he actually states "low to mid Six figures" if I recall . hope that helps

[Nyne]

Nyne, taking a cheap shot like that is not you! I confused it, stating that you do not split 9's with 8-9 showing, I was thinking more about you do not double a 9 versus 8-9 except in rare situations. Now, regarding your other advice, I play in a small town casino (most often) where there are only 2 6 deck tables with $10 minimum and checks play is called out when you put out a $100 bet, where there is no one betting Green 90% of the time. I dont play higher Max because it draws attention excessively. The other places I play about 50% of the time are in a big city with several casinos and DD games. There I play Green.

I understand your giving me advice. The same advice was given to me, I think by KJ, that I should keep my max bet the same whether I play $10 min. tables or $25 min. Tables. However, in my particular situation of a small town,most always playing among red chippers, 'Check play being called after every bet exceeding $100 and logevity of importance to me in that casino, I opt for the Max to be under $150 at the 6 deck tables.

You're right, I shouldn't have said that. I shouldn't have responded at all. I just saw a post about drastically different betting levels at 2 different games and felt I should point out the problems with that approach. It's sometimes necessary, but you should be aware that you will experience more drastic swings playing this way since most of your variance will be driven by the play at higher stakes. I also question your concerns about playing higher at the other location. Do you think that you will experience half of the longevity if you play at double the stakes? There's no definitive answer to that, but it's something to consider. What kind of heat would you get playing $25-250, with occasional drops to $15 or $20, for slightly shorter sessions? I know that's a low limit joint, but sometimes you just don't know what a place will take until you push the limits a time or two. Checks play isn't heat.

I responded the way I did because I get just as frustrated as everyone else that has stopped responding seriously to you. It gets old to try to help someone over and over that won't try to help their self. I realize in this case you weren't asking for advice, but the point remains that until you learn basic strategy and invest in CVCX, there's really no point in continuing to try to help you at all. The information is out there. I'll try to resist replying to you until you take some initiative to learn the basics on your own. But sometimes I have a hard time staying out of things...

duty_calls.png

Credit for comic: http://xkcd.com/386/

[22 Dreams]

think about it . if you dont know then you dont need to know.

You missed the point completely. I could say much more, but it's clearly not worth it. Good night and good luck.

[bigplayer]

The ceiling is created by table limits and heat. Eventually your bankroll grows past the point you can put to use except at very few casinos and with much cover. To make more money you have to do other things that just count.