Help regarding Blackjack Simulator an flat betting 1000000 hands

[niqueclyde]

Please help me!


If I put 6D, S17, ENHC, DoE, Resplit up to 4 times all except aces, Only one card on split aces, no surender in wizard calculator

http://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/calculator/

i get Optimal results: 0.51417%

"The "optimal results" are based on perfect composition dependent strategy and the dealer shuffling after every hand, which benefits the player"


and Realistic results: 0.53727%
The "realistic results" are based on total dependent basic strategy, like the tables on this site, and the use of a cut card, which favors the dealer.


When I simulated one million hands, in simulator, flat betting always one unit, with above rules I got House edge of 0.8713% ( Because it is ENHC we did not bet 11 vs dealer ten, and split 88 vs 10)


The rules in my nearby casino have a special promotion that shift edge to players advantage if u bet 10$. (Something about suited BJ spades paying 10:1 automated winer, for first 10$ wagered)

If the real casino edge is not 0,53727% , then much higher close to 0,8713% that makes big difference. 0,34% in 100000 hands that we can play in those is 340 bets. If our hand is 10$ You can see the picture. Not to mention standard deviation aka Luck that can eat our 1000 unit bank in a blink of an eye.

Can somebody please simulate just plain flat betting, playing basic strategy what the real edge is?


milion ruku.jpg

[Dog Hand]

MGP's Blackjack Combinatorial Analyzer gives these results:

Net Game EVs

TD EV:     -0.517636794560512%

2C EV:     -0.515231239737127%

CD EV:     -0.514056455290216%

Forced EV: -0.515231239737127%


Dealer Upcard EVs

             2        3        4        5        6        7        8        9        T        A    

Prob:        7.69%    7.69%    7.69%    7.69%    7.69%    7.69%    7.69%    7.69%   30.77%    7.69%

TD:          9.27%   12.63%   16.28%   20.33%   23.58%   14.46%    5.76%   -4.11%  -17.66%  -34.28%

2C:          9.27%   12.63%   16.28%   20.33%   23.58%   14.46%    5.76%   -4.11%  -17.65%  -34.28%

CD:          9.27%   12.63%   16.28%   20.33%   23.58%   14.46%    5.76%   -4.11%  -17.65%  -34.28%

Forced:      9.27%   12.63%   16.28%   20.33%   23.58%   14.46%    5.76%   -4.11%  -17.65%  -34.28%


Player First Card EVs

             2        3        4        5        6        7        8        9        T        A    

Prob:        7.69%    7.69%    7.69%    7.69%    7.69%    7.69%    7.69%    7.69%   30.77%    7.69%

TD:        -13.26%  -15.35%  -17.69%   -19.8%  -20.89%  -18.07%   -8.62%   -0.99%   14.34%   50.57%

2C:        -13.25%  -15.35%  -17.68%  -19.79%  -20.89%  -18.07%   -8.62%   -0.99%   14.34%   50.57%

CD:        -13.25%  -15.35%  -17.68%  -19.79%  -20.89%  -18.07%   -8.62%   -0.99%   14.34%   50.57%

Forced:    -13.25%  -15.35%  -17.68%  -19.79%  -20.89%  -18.07%   -8.62%   -0.99%   14.34%   50.57%

Trying to determine BS EV by simulating only 1-million rounds is not very useful.

By the way, what program did you use?

Dog Hand

[niqueclyde]

MGP's Blackjack Combinatorial Analyzer gives these results:

Net Game EVs

TD EV:     -0.517636794560512%

2C EV:     -0.515231239737127%

CD EV:     -0.514056455290216%

Forced EV: -0.515231239737127%


Dealer Upcard EVs

             2        3        4        5        6        7        8        9        T        A    

Prob:        7.69%    7.69%    7.69%    7.69%    7.69%    7.69%    7.69%    7.69%   30.77%    7.69%

TD:          9.27%   12.63%   16.28%   20.33%   23.58%   14.46%    5.76%   -4.11%  -17.66%  -34.28%

2C:          9.27%   12.63%   16.28%   20.33%   23.58%   14.46%    5.76%   -4.11%  -17.65%  -34.28%

CD:          9.27%   12.63%   16.28%   20.33%   23.58%   14.46%    5.76%   -4.11%  -17.65%  -34.28%

Forced:      9.27%   12.63%   16.28%   20.33%   23.58%   14.46%    5.76%   -4.11%  -17.65%  -34.28%


Player First Card EVs

             2        3        4        5        6        7        8        9        T        A    

Prob:        7.69%    7.69%    7.69%    7.69%    7.69%    7.69%    7.69%    7.69%   30.77%    7.69%

TD:        -13.26%  -15.35%  -17.69%   -19.8%  -20.89%  -18.07%   -8.62%   -0.99%   14.34%   50.57%

2C:        -13.25%  -15.35%  -17.68%  -19.79%  -20.89%  -18.07%   -8.62%   -0.99%   14.34%   50.57%

CD:        -13.25%  -15.35%  -17.68%  -19.79%  -20.89%  -18.07%   -8.62%   -0.99%   14.34%   50.57%

Forced:    -13.25%  -15.35%  -17.68%  -19.79%  -20.89%  -18.07%   -8.62%   -0.99%   14.34%   50.57%

Trying to determine BS EV by simulating only 1-million rounds is not very useful.

By the way, what program did you use?

Dog Hand

Thank you for quick replay.

I simulated 1000000 hands flatbeting 1 unit and getting 8713 unit minus. That is 0,8713%

U can see in the picture inclosed Blackjack bet and play simulator v4.4 was used.

I know theory but I would like that somebody just simulate 1000000+ hands on different software.

With regards

[Norm]

1,000,000 hands is useless. I assume you meant for DAS to also be in the rules. If so, the answer is -.54 according to CVData.

[niqueclyde]

1,000,000 hands is useless. I assume you meant for DAS to also be in the rules. If so, the answer is -.54 according to CVData.

Yes and I know what CVData sayes,

But before i put money in it all I need to see it is true in gameplay. I had done 1000000 hands and lost 8713 units as a graph shows. I will do it more, but 0,34 % is a big difference after 1000000 hands

[muckz]

The 3sd range of your game 1 mil hands is -2000 to -8800 units.

[niqueclyde]

The 3sd range of your game 1 mil hands is -2000 to -8800 units.

Yes I know, but i did several more tests and all are in range of loss of 8000.

But I am more and more to incline to belive that edge of 0,54 does not mean that u lose 54c per 100$ dollar you lose more:.

From wizard of odds

The house edge is defined as the ratio of the average loss to the initial bet. The house edge is not the ratio of money lost to total money wagered.

Because of split and double even with flat bet u are ending up (when splitting and doubling) with more money on the table then just initial bet X number of hands played. And because u lose more on all the right BS splits then u win on all the BS double u end up loosing more then what average House edge suggest. It looks like standard house edge information is more of Casino trick just to get your $$.

[Norm]

Yes I know, but i did several more tests and all are in range of loss of 8000.

If the results are all very close with one million hands, the simulator is no good.

But I am more and more to incline to belive that edge of 0,54 does not mean that u lose 54c per 100$ dollar you lose more:.

It means 54 cents for each $100 initial bet. For those rules, it's 48 cents per total $100 bet.

It looks like standard house edge information is more of Casino trick just to get your $$.

Please.

[niqueclyde]

If the results are all very close with one million hands, the simulator is no good.



It means 54 cents for each $100 initial bet. For those rules, it's 48 cents per total $100 bet.



Please.

Thank you Norm,

so what you are saying that I should get while simulated 1000000 hand i should be in range of 4800 units in minus not 8700?

Do you have or do u know somebody who could simulate it?

with regards

[Norm]

so what you are saying that I should get while simulated 1000000 hand i should be in range of 4800 units in minus not 8700?

As muckz said, you should get numbers in the range of -2000 to -8800.

Do you have or do u know somebody who could simulate it?

The Wizard and I both simmed it and came out with the same answer. It's -0.54. We always quote initial bet advantage.

[niqueclyde]

As muckz said, you should get numbers in the range of -2000 to -8800.



The Wizard and I both simmed it and came out with the same answer. It's -0.54. We always quote initial bet advantage.

Thank you Norm

One question regarding promotion 6 card Charlie that pays 2:1 automatic winer. (Even vs BJ in ENHC) Is it good reasoning that u can expect to win 4 extra units in a 1000 hands played (six card charlie is 1 in 500; but because it pays 2:1 u get 2 of those so 4 extra units) This could offset starting 0,54% house advantage...

[Norm]

It's not that simple as you would have won most of the hands anyway. The 2:1 certainly makes a difference. But, it has to be simmed.

[niqueclyde]

It's not that simple as you would have won most of the hands anyway. The 2:1 certainly makes a difference. But, it has to be simmed.

Sim would make it more precise, but i did not find any software that can do it. My reasoning was that i would win half of the 6 cards hands and lose half. and there is nothing sweeter when u draw 6 card vs dealer BJ