NFL - Freeplay on Thursday's NFL game (2014-09-18)

[Math Demon]

Hello Everyone!

I just received a $100 NFL freeplay on one of my active accounts. _There is a 12x rollover requirement. _It expires on Thursday, Sept. 18th 11:59 PM. _It is a "use it or lose it" freeplay in which any amount not wagered is lost. _All amounts wagered (up to $100) is subject to the 12x rollover.

I am NOT very familiar with sports betting, specially freeplay. _I assume that if I win on Thursday, I will have $200 to wager on future games, and will have to wager a total of $1200 in future games before being eligible for withdrawal.

The only game available (before expiration) is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons NFL game. _I do NOT follow those teams.
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I would like to ask for recommendations for teams AND for betting strategies.

I will NOT blame anyone for losing recommendations since I would have randomly chosen a team or over/under anyway. _I just ask that your recommendations be based on statistical analysis, or some NFL performance criteria; and that such recommendations be intelligently elaborated and explained. _Is the "over 44½" better than the "under 44½"? Why?
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Right now, I am leaning towards the Buccaneers $100 to win (+235). _If allowed, is this the best way to use a "freeplay"? __If not allowed, I would bet $50 on Bucs -103 (lower vig), $50 on O/U.

Currently, the lines are:
Team___________________Spread_______Moneyline_______O/U Total Points
Tampa Bay Buccaneers_____+6½_-104______+225_____ ___Ov 44½ -110
Atlanta Falcons___________-6½_ -116______-265_________Un 44½ -110

Overtime: Yes = +800, No = -1500


Addenda:

1. _A parlay may (?) also be available. _It may be allowed to parlay Bucs+6½ (-104) and Over 44½ (-110). _What is the statistical chance of winning this 2-bet parlay based on the linemaker's odds? _How much would I win if the parlay hits?

2. _How about a $100 2-bet parlay - Bucs to win (+225), Over 44½ (-110)? _ Chances and $win?

3. _How about a $100 3-bet parlay - Bucs to win (+225), Over 44½ (-110) in Overtime (+800)? _ Chances and $win?

4. _How about a 3-bet parlay - Bucs to win, Bucs+6½, and total Over 44½? _ Chances and $win?

5. _How about a 4-bet parlay - Bucs to win, Bucs+6½, and total Over 44½ in overtime? _ Shoot for the _ Chances and $win?

6. _It looks like only spread and O/U are allowed to be parlayed. _I guess I have to go with the more intelligent spread and O/U bets, whatever those are? _Or is the "Bucs to win" (at +225) better?




Thanks very much!
Math Demon

_

[Three]

I am NOT very familiar with sports betting, specially freeplay. _I assume that if I win on Thursday, I will have $200 to wager on future games, and will have to wager a total of $1200 in future games before being eligible for withdrawal.

If you win (a push is a loss with free play so pick a half point line to eliminate a push from possible outcomes) you will have $100 cash that can't be withdrawn until you play an additional $1100 for the $1200 rollover.

Right now, I am leaning towards the Buccaneers $100 to win (+235). _If allowed, is this the best way to use a "freeplay"?

Your rollover is based on your win in many cases. You would be more than doubling your rollover amount if this is the case.

Currently, the lines are:
Team___________________Spread_______Moneyline_____ __O/U Total Points
Tampa Bay Buccaneers_____+6½_-104______+225_____ ___Ov 44½ -110
Atlanta Falcons___________-6½_ -116______-265_________Un 44½ -110

The odds suggest the line will move (-104 versus -116). They are trying to get action on the Bucs with the odds. If they are unsuccessful they will move the line to try to even the action that way. +7 is the same as +6.5 so unless the line moves to +7.5 -110 you are better off betting the +6.5. If you favor the Falcons wait for the line to move to -7 -110. That extra half point is a push = lose anyway.

For a sports bettor free play has the biggest value on bets you lose if rollover is based on amount won with free play. This doesn't apply to you. Often rollover to withdraw any money is based on the free play rollover being met. This also may not apply to you. You should check it out to make sure you don't have to play the rollover before withdrawing your real money wherever you play that. You can negotiate your own deal when depositing. You can get a lower amount of freeplay with the rollover for the funny money win only. It will likely be a smaller freeplay bonus but it is often preferable to causing a large rollover on your deposit. Make sure you get an Email with your special deal so you have proof when they "forget". Again this may not apply to your situation.

Addenda:

1. _A parlay may (?) also be available. _It may be allowed to parlay Bucs+6½ (-104) and Over 44½ (-110). _What is the statistical chance of winning this 2-bet parlay based on the linemaker's odds? _How much would I win if the parlay hits?

2. _How about a $100 2-bet parlay - Bucs to win (+225), Over 44½ (-110)? _ Chances and $win?

3. _How about a $100 3-bet parlay - Bucs to win (+225), Over 44½ (-110) in Overtime (+800)? _ Chances and $win?

4. _How about a 3-bet parlay - Bucs to win, Bucs+6½, and total Over 44½? _ Chances and $win?

5. _How about a 4-bet parlay - Bucs to win, Bucs+6½, and total Over 44½ in overtime? _ Shoot for the _ Chances and $win?

6. _It looks like only spread and O/U are allowed to be parlayed. _I guess I have to go with the more intelligent spread and O/U bets, whatever those are? _Or is the "Bucs to win" (at +225) better?

If you fancy a parlay don't do it with the initial $100. It will only make your rollover explode. If you win the first bet bet a parlay with the winnings.

I would recommend betting on Tampa Bay or the over. It should be a close game with a total in the mid 50's. As for #4 and 5, they won't let you parlay the moneyline with a spread bet. They are correlated bets. If I didn't think the game was going to be close I would recommend the short payoff on the Falcons to win to keep rollover down (only if rollover is based on the win amount rather than the freeplay amount) followed by betting the winnings in a parlay NE -13.5, and 49ers -2.5 or Dallas -1 or Green Bay +1.5 or Car -3 or any combination of the above. I guess the same strategy could be used on the Bucs moneyline even though it may make your rollover much higher the parlay win, if it comes, will give you ammo to eat through it. I think the best bets are Tampa Bay +6.5 followed by the over. The Tampa Bay moneyline has a lot of value but the rollover considerations can affect this. If your rollover is based on the freeplay rather than the amount won this is a great bet. If your rollover is based on the amount won a big hit on your first wager is a double edged sword.

[Math Demon]

I would recommend betting on Tampa Bay or the over. It should be a close game with a total in the mid 50's. As for #4 and 5, they won't let you parlay the moneyline with a spread bet. They are correlated bets. If I didn't think the game was going to be close I would recommend the short payoff on the Falcons to win to keep rollover down (only if rollover is based on the win amount rather than the freeplay amount) ...

Thanks Tthree! I have always valued your opinions and your postings. I also admire the effort, patience, and dedication you put in trying to assist other Forum members.
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I will contact the site about the basis of the rollover req't (whether bet amount or winnings), but I'm not looking way past the freeplay. If it's lost, I will concentrate on something else. If it wins, then I'll start looking at the other games.

Just playing Devil's Advocate here (and using amateurish analysis), why not pick Falcons-6½ and Under 44½. After I posted the question, I looked at NFL.com and found Falcons = 23.5 pts/gm, Bucs = 15.5 pts/gm. If they just played their avg game, Falcons would win by 8, the total being 39.

The Falcons have won vs Brees (NO - 29 pts/gm), but lost to Dalton (CIN - 23.5 pts/gm). CIN has a better defense than TB.

The Bucs QB had struggled in 2 games; and the Bucs have lost vs. Anderson (backup CAR QB) and Davis (3rd STL QB). Ryan was drafted #3 (1st-round pick) and has 2 top-notch receivers in Julio Jones (1st-round pick) and Roddy White (1st-round pick).
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Some other junk from NFL.com:

Atlanta:
Record 1-1, Points For = 47, Against = 58, Net = -11
23.5 pts/game (13th), 438.5 tot yds/gm (2nd), 328.5 pass yds/gm (1st), 110.0 rush yds/gm (21st)
Tot 1st downs = 47, TDs = 5, 3rd down = 9/23 = 39%, TOP = 29:09

Passing:
Ryan: 55/87 = 63% = 679 yds, 4 TDs, 3 INTs, 3 sacks, 7.8 yds/att, 88.2 QB rating

Rushing:
44 rushes, 5.0 yds/rush

Kicking Game:
4 for 4 FGs
Devin Hester = 2 returns = 4.0 yds/punt return, no TD
Devin Hester = 5 returns = 27.8 yds/kick return, no TD
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Tampa Bay:
Record 0-2, Points For = 31, Against = 39, Net = -8
15.5 pts/game (27th), 298.0 tot yds/gm (28th), 168.5 pass yds/gm (31st), 129.5 rush yds/gm (11th)
Tot 1st downs = 35, TDs = 4, 3rd down = 10/20 = 50%, TOP = 26:21

Passing:
McCown: 38/56 = 68% = 362 yds, 2 TDs, 3 INTs, 4 sacks, 6.5 yds/att, 75.1 QB rating

Rushing:
47 rushes, 5.5 yds/rush

Kicking Game:
1 for 2 FGs
Never Heard = 5 returns = 11.2 yds/punt return, no TD
Never Heard = 6 returns = 28.0 yds/kick return, no TD
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[Math Demon]

Your rollover is based on your win in many cases. You would be more than doubling your rollover amount if this is the case... If your rollover is based on the amount won a big hit on your first wager is a double edged sword.

Hi Tthree!

Here are some of the conditions:

1. If you use only a portion of the free play before its expiration, your rollover will still be calculated on the entire original amount of the free play.



2. A deposit of at least $50.00 must be made at some point after Tuesday, September 16, 2014 in order to make a future withdrawal.

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I only play poker at that site. I do NOT have any funds at the SportsBook. I will only deposit funds (of $50.00) if the rollover req't has been fulfilled.


Thanks again!
MD

[moo321]

I believe, with the rollover requirement, the value of your freeplay increases as you increase the variance on your initial bet.

[Three]

Well you have to take stats for where they come from. The Saints are a different team on the road. They are almost unbeatable at home but struggle on the road. You don't compare offense against offense you compare offense against defense since they are on the field at the same time playing against one another.

The Falcons faced two tough opponents. The Bengals in Cincy is a tough game and they lost as expected. The Saints in Atlanta looks like a tough game but it is a division game so both teams know each other very well and the Saints are a different team away from home. The Bengals have a strong D and the Saints have no D. The Falcons eeked out a win against the Saints in week one by 3 points, 34-37 in over time. Ryan had impressive stats against the horrible Saints D, 31/43 (72.1%), 448 yards and 3 TDS with no INT. They won the important turnover battle 2 to 1. In week 2 they lost to a great Bengals D by 14 points, 10-24. The game was ot as close as the score indicates. The Bengals had a 24-3 lead in the 4th quarter. Ryan had a poor performance, 24/44 (54.5%) for 231 yards and 1 TD with 3 INT. They lost the turnover battle 3-0.

The Bucs lost to the undefeated Panthers in week 1, 20-14. The game was decided on turnovers. TB lost the turnover battle 3-0. In week 2 they lost a squeeker in the fourth quarter by 2 points.

Upon glancing at the injury report I might agree to take the Falcon's. The TB defense is all beat up. Key players that missed last weeks game may be back but are they gong to be 100%? Probably the over is your safest bet. The Falcons may have no problem scoring if the TB defense is either out due to injury or playing hurt. the actual injury report won't be out until after 5PM. If it reflects so much injury issues I wouldn't bet on TB. I think that 6.5 points is a lot to be laying this early in the season. Since you have no choice but to bet I would seriously consider the over. The other option is to tease the spread and points 6 points. The book I use gives even money on this wager. You could have the Falcons -1/2 which barring a tie is the same as pick and over 38.5. You aren't paying any vig and you aren't creating a bigger rollover if it is based on win. The vig on taking the Falcons is way too high at -116.

[Three]

I believe, with the rollover requirement, the value of your freeplay increases as you increase the variance on your initial bet.

How are you suggesting he does this? Usually rollover is designed to assure you lose all the winnings from your freeplay and force you to not be able to withdraw any money until you have lost all your BR (freeplay matching your initial deposit). I like negotiating rollover on the win amount only. If he is to choose a parlay with such limited options to choose from (only Thursday nights game) he will be forced to take poor decisions unless he gets lucky with out of whack lines on both the game and the over/under. I think the over is low but the line is close one way or the other. Maybe the Falcons blow out the Bucs but I don't think that is a given with garbage points and it being a divisional game were both teams play each other so much that they know each other. Divisional games are trickier to handicap. He was looking for suggestions and you didn't even offer a betting strategy even if you weren't going to give any picks.

[Math Demon]

Well you have to take stats for where they come from...

... Ryan had impressive stats against the horrible Saints D, 31/43 (72.1%), 448 yards and 3 TDS with no INT. They won the important turnover battle 2 to 1. In week 2 they lost to a great Bengals D by 14 points, 10-24. The game was ot as close as the score indicates. The Bengals had a 24-3 lead in the 4th quarter. Ryan had a poor performance, 24/44 (54.5%) for 231 yards and 1 TD with 3 INT. They lost the turnover battle 3-0.

The Bucs lost to the undefeated Panthers in week 1, 20-14. The game was decided on turnovers. TB lost the turnover battle 3-0. In week 2 they lost a squeeker in the fourth quarter by 2 points...

Upon glancing at the injury report I might agree to take the Falcon's. The TB defense is all beat up. Key players that missed last weeks game may be back but are they gong to be 100%? Probably the over is your safest bet...

I will look into the TB and ATL defensive stats and rankings tonight. Right now, my uninformed brain is leaning towards a blow-out by the Falcons (due to the Falcons playing at home, needing a division win to try to keep pace with CAR; as well as the TB QB McCown's struggles). To me, a Falcons blow-out would imply Falcons-6.5 and Over 44.5. I will try to post the bets or the parlay.
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Thanks very much, not only for the picks, but also for the process of picking and analyzing picks. As a great philosopher once said:

"Give a man a fish, he eats for a day.
Teach a man to fish, he eats for a lifetime.
But teach a man to be a fish, and he can eat himself.
Teach a man to eat himself, and fish no longer matter."
- Dennis Miller

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[Math Demon]

... leaning towards a blow-out by the Falcons (due to the Falcons playing at home, needing a division win to try to keep pace with CAR; as well as the TB QB McCown's struggles). To me, a Falcons blow-out would imply Falcons-6.5 and Over 44.5. I will try to post the bets or the parlay.
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Thanks very much, not only for the picks, but also for the process of picking and analyzing picks. As a great philosopher once said:

"Give a man a fish, he eats for a day.
Teach a man to fish, he eats for a lifetime.
But teach a man to be a fish, and he can eat himself.
Teach a man to eat himself, and fish no longer matter."
- Dennis Miller

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Thanks a lot, Mr. Tthree!

I have $0.00 money now in the sportsbook. I inquired about the 12x rollover requirement. CustSvc stated that there is only a rollover req't if I wanted to withdraw before $1200 is wagered. If I lost the freeplay bet, they waive the 12x rollover req't. In fact, whenever my acct goes to zero, all rollover req't are considered met, and I start fresh. Only if I keep winning do I need to wager a total of $1200.
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EV Question:

How do I compute the EV of a straight bet, e.g. Falcons-6 vs a parlay paying 2.64-to-1?
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ATL-TB - 2014-09-18 (blurred).jpg

[Nyne]

If the rollover requirement is not affected by which bet you choose for the free play (meaning the betting requirement is basically a fixed $1200), then you maximize the EV of the total play when you minimize the expected amount of betting required. That means you want to pick bets that have a low probability of winning, but pay off big when they do. Lets say there is a hypothetical bet with a 20% probability of winning that pays 4:1 and another with a 50% chance of winning that pays 1:1. Both are break-even bets, but the 4:1 bet is significantly better. I don't know the typical house edge on sports bets but I'll use 5% for illustration.

0.2 * ($100 * 4 - $1200 * 5%) + 0.8 * $0 = $68
0.5 * ($100 * 1 - $1200 * 5%) + 0.5 * $0 = $20

Part of the difference is due to the 30% less often that you have to actually complete the wagering requirement. The other part is due to the "loss rebate" you get when you lose $100 but dont actually have to pay it. Both of these factors mean you want to pick a long shot bet for the first bet on a play like this. This is what moo was referring to when he said you want high variance bets.

I realize I'm a little late to help you this time but maybe you'll find this useful later on. I'm not a sportsbettor so I may be missing some peculiarities with sports bonuses, but this is a general principle for bonuses.