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Thread: Sharky's NFL play of the week

  1. #443


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    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    No takers for the week 16 undefeated home dog angle with AZ +8? I can't blame you but that is a very strong angle. Moses how many years have you been waiting for an 8 point 7-0 home dog? LOL
    I know you're joking, Tthree!

    AZ is starting 3rd-string QB with like 0-8 W-L record in games started vs top-Defense SEA "Legion of Boom"? SEA also had #1 Rushing attack in ypg.
    .
    To NFL newbies: Please perform your own analysis. Confirm any stats presented. Draw your own conclusions.

    Handicapping is EXTREMELY hard! All statistical evidence (and game insights) may indicate strongly a specific outcome, winner, or continuing trend; but a turn-over, a missed field goal, an erroneous call, a key injury, etc. can easily change the outcome, the margins, and/or the totals. Division rivalry games and games with playoff implications are highly unpredictable.

    .

  2. #444
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    I am not joking about the strength of the angle but am joking that one would apply such a stat to this game given all the injuries to AZ and starting their 3rd string QB for the first time this season. SEA has been on fire and AZ has been doing their best to keep their team solid as their pieces crumble. They have been doing an amazingly good job at it but each week adds new problems in addition to the old ones. 8 points is a lot in this situation but I am not touching either side in this matchup. Too many unpredictable variables.

  3. #445
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    1-3 last week. 29-33-3 for the year.

    Nothing too hot this weak, as tends to happen late in the year:
    HOU +5.5 vs Bal - Too many points for Bal, in a game where both have hopes for playoffs.
    ARI +8.5 vs Sea - Vengeance for Arizona, in a low scoring game. Too many points. You can probably throw any QB in for Arizona and there won't be much of a drop off.
    nyg +6.5 vs STL - Giants tend to be streaky.
    Min +5.5 vs MIA - Miami has been looking really off, and Minnesota has been doing decently of late.
    NYJ +10 vs ne - Too many points for a rivalry game, and Jets tend to get into ugly low scoring games.
    Timidity is dangerous: Better to enter with boldness. Any mistakes you commit through audacity are easily corrected with more audacity.

  4. #446


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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    I decided to pass. But I'll probably be kicking myself tonight. There have been alot of great QBs on bad teams. The QB alone doesn't get a team to 11-4. So I'm thinking AZ has some talent. Larry Fitzgerald is no slouch. 3rd string QB doesn't need to make great plays...just not screw up.

    I haven't finished my analysis, therefore I do not know whether I will pass or not. If I DO bet the spread, it will most probably be on SEA - 8.
    __

    For logic's sake, man -- Lindley is the
    ONLY QB in NFL history who has attempted 180 passes without a touchdown in seven career NFL games.

    In 2012, Lindley's rookie season as quarterback for the Arizona Cardinals. He played in six games, including four starts. But he was sacked 12 times, lost two fumbles, threw seven interceptions and did not throw a touchdown pass in 171 attempts. His passer rating that year (46.7) still ranks as the worst single-season passer rating since 2009 among NFL quarterbacks with at least 150 pass attempts, according to Stats LLC.
    __

    Fitzgerald might NOT be a slouch, but someone has to be able to throw it to him, and the Defense can't do that.
    __

    ARZ is just getting lucky! Managing an average margin of victory of barely more than a FG, 20.5-17.4.


    .
    To NFL newbies: Please perform your own analysis. Confirm any stats presented. Draw your own conclusions.

    Handicapping is EXTREMELY hard! All statistical evidence (and game insights) may indicate strongly a specific outcome, winner, or continuing trend; but a turn-over, a missed field goal, an erroneous call, a key injury, etc. can easily change the outcome, the margins, and/or the totals. Division rivalry games and games with playoff implications are highly unpredictable.

    .

  5. #447


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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    I decided to pass. But I'll probably be kicking myself tonight. There have been alot of great QBs on bad teams. The QB alone doesn't get a team to 11-4. So I'm thinking AZ has some talent. Larry Fitzgerald is no slouch. 3rd string QB doesn't need to make great plays...just not screw up.

    Moses, even you are conceding that ARZ will lose tonight.

    ARZ current W-L record is 11-
    3.
    .
    To NFL newbies: Please perform your own analysis. Confirm any stats presented. Draw your own conclusions.

    Handicapping is EXTREMELY hard! All statistical evidence (and game insights) may indicate strongly a specific outcome, winner, or continuing trend; but a turn-over, a missed field goal, an erroneous call, a key injury, etc. can easily change the outcome, the margins, and/or the totals. Division rivalry games and games with playoff implications are highly unpredictable.

    .

  6. #448
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    ARZ+8 at home. Too many points for an undefeated home team who got their record without great quarterback play. Arizona wins with defense and should be able to cover 8 at home in a game that could clinch the division with so they will be motivated.

    NYJ+10 at home. Last home game for Jets, rivalry game, too many points. Jets cover

    IND+3.5 on the road. Dallas is all about Demarco Murray and he wil not be effective today with his injured hand. Romo is also hurt. Big game for IND as well so they will come out hard. If T.Y Hilton doesn't play, it makes this a toss up imo

    HOU+6 Too many points for Hou at home. This game can make or break Houstons playoffs hopes. JJ Watt will cause havoc on Flacco

    Straight bet each game and you will make money today. I expect at least 3 of these 4 picks will cover. Just don't parlary it like many gamblers like too
    Last edited by ZenKinG; 12-21-2014 at 08:07 AM.

  7. #449
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    CAR -4 vs Cle - A weak off should help Cam who has been hobbled this year. Back injuries are less of a concern than leg injuries for a mobile QB.
    Timidity is dangerous: Better to enter with boldness. Any mistakes you commit through audacity are easily corrected with more audacity.

  8. #450


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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    Wonder why they even have him on the payroll.
    He's cheap, he's available, and he's familiar with the offense. It was past the trading deadline, after all, when Palmer's season-ending injury occurred.
    __

    After two seasons with the team, Lindley was released by the Cardinals on August 25, 2014.

    Lindley signed with the San Diego Chargers and was assigned to their practice squad on August 31, 2014.


    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    Wonder why they even have him on the payroll. Imagine an NFL QB that can't throw a forward pass. Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. Might have something to do with their defense. 49ers were considered to be good at the seasons beginning. Line is climbing so bettors see your logic.

    I wasn't intending to watch the SEA @ ARZ game, but I guess I have to now. I want to see if I'm wrong about Lindley and The Cardinals. He could be the next Jay Cutler .... ooops! Wrong example.
    ___

    Ryan Lindley is an American football quarterback for the Arizona Cardinals of the National Football League. Lindley was originally drafted in the sixth round of the 2012 NFL Draft by the Arizona Cardinals.
    en.wikipedia.org

    Born: Jun 22, 1989 (age 25) · San Diego, California
    Team: Arizona Cardinals · Quarterback · 14
    Salary: $480,000 USD (2014) - League minimum
    Height: 6' 4" (1.93 m)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryan_Lindley



    .
    To NFL newbies: Please perform your own analysis. Confirm any stats presented. Draw your own conclusions.

    Handicapping is EXTREMELY hard! All statistical evidence (and game insights) may indicate strongly a specific outcome, winner, or continuing trend; but a turn-over, a missed field goal, an erroneous call, a key injury, etc. can easily change the outcome, the margins, and/or the totals. Division rivalry games and games with playoff implications are highly unpredictable.

    .

  9. #451
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    Quote Originally Posted by ZenKinG View Post
    JJ Watt will cause havoc on Flacco
    The left tackle Watt will face was on his team in college and faced him in practice regularly for a couple of years. I think he may be more accustomed to Watt than any other LT in the NFL.

  10. #452


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    Dang!!! Most of the best picks have odds that deteriorated on game day -- with not only worsening spread, but also going from -110 to sometimes -125. These picks are not included here.


    1. DAL - 2.5 (-103): DAL RB Murray expected to play, but injured. Needs 300 yds or so to match Dickerson's record.
    DAL Backup RB Randle = 7.0 yd/carry. DAL Backup RB Dunbar = 12.9 yds/catch.
    IND Andrew Luck is error-prone; 14 INTs/12 FUMs this season, 5 INTs/6 FUMs in last 5 games.
    DAL is more motivated -- IND has already clinched playoff spot while DAL has NOT.

    2. IND @ DAL Over 52.5 (pending -- lines are still moving lower). Waiting on IND Hilton inactive/injury report.

    3. BAL - 6: In Flacco, we trust! HOU is starting QB Case Keenum (from American Top 40?).

    4. ATL @ NO Over 56: Waited until ATL Julio Jones was declared active.

    5. CAR - 5.5. Wanted CAR - 4, but CAR - 5.5 was the best I could get. CAR QB Newton is playing vis-a-vis Johnny Be Good (maybe? someday?)

    y. Wanted to bet MIN + 6.5. Spread deteriorated to MIN + 4. ML from +240 to +175. No play!

    z. Wanted to bet on 4 more games, but line movement have made it inadvisable.
    __

    I'll bet on the 4 PM games based on W/L trends from the 1 PM games.
    .
    To NFL newbies: Please perform your own analysis. Confirm any stats presented. Draw your own conclusions.

    Handicapping is EXTREMELY hard! All statistical evidence (and game insights) may indicate strongly a specific outcome, winner, or continuing trend; but a turn-over, a missed field goal, an erroneous call, a key injury, etc. can easily change the outcome, the margins, and/or the totals. Division rivalry games and games with playoff implications are highly unpredictable.

    .

  11. #453


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    Thanks to all! And Happy Holidays!

    Quote Originally Posted by Math Demon View Post
    Dang!!! Most of the best picks have odds that deteriorated on game day -- with not only worsening spread, but also going from -110 to sometimes -125. These picks are not included here.
    Quote Originally Posted by Math Demon View Post
    5. CAR - 5.5. Wanted CAR - 4, but CAR - 5.5 was the best I could get. CAR QB Newton is playing vis-a-vis Johnny Be Good (maybe? someday?)

    Shop for the best lines. Pass if you cannot stick to your top-rated plays, or cannot get your preferred lines and odds.

    Case-in-point: CAR 17, CLE 13 (game above).

    ___


    I would like to thank everyone who's participating in this thread! Having all these different opinions and perspectives make each of us better handicappers. Everyone brings different points-of-view, experience, and focus. Focus on different divisions and conferences, different match-ups, spreads vs OU.


    Thanks to all! And Happy Holidays!
    .
    To NFL newbies: Please perform your own analysis. Confirm any stats presented. Draw your own conclusions.

    Handicapping is EXTREMELY hard! All statistical evidence (and game insights) may indicate strongly a specific outcome, winner, or continuing trend; but a turn-over, a missed field goal, an erroneous call, a key injury, etc. can easily change the outcome, the margins, and/or the totals. Division rivalry games and games with playoff implications are highly unpredictable.

    .

  12. #454
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    Quote Originally Posted by Math Demon View Post
    Shop for the best lines. Pass if you cannot stick to your top-rated plays, or cannot get your preferred lines and odds.

    Case-in-point: CAR 17, CLE 13 (game above).

    _
    Look for lines that are out of whack early and bet them. If you have multiple accounts the worst case scenario you get a nice middle. You can tease the line if you aren't sure it will move but often there are other sites that have lines already different in the direction to get a middle. If your more detailed analysis makes it look like a great bet don't play a middle. Tat is how I get great lines a lot. I bet them knowing the line will move or I can bet the other team on another site for a middle. You need to know enough about both football and what drives line moves in football to do this right. Ideally you already have a general idea of the proper line and who you want to bet but looking at all the different starting lines available usually tells you a lot about what to expect in line moves. I know you know the math on middles. Factor in the MOV frequencies to the math and you know what you are looking for. Factor in the MOV frequency benefits to teasers and certain lines that are out of whack beg to be teased. It is like working the mailers in a casino. You can generate a lot of EV without much handicapping involved.

  13. #455
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    Look for lines that are out of whack early and bet them. If you have multiple accounts the worst case scenario you get a nice middle. You can tease the line if you aren't sure it will move but often there are other sites that have lines already different in the direction to get a middle. If your more detailed analysis makes it look like a great bet don't play a middle. Tat is how I get great lines a lot. I bet them knowing the line will move or I can bet the other team on another site for a middle. You need to know enough about both football and what drives line moves in football to do this right. Ideally you already have a general idea of the proper line and who you want to bet but looking at all the different starting lines available usually tells you a lot about what to expect in line moves. I know you know the math on middles. Factor in the MOV frequencies to the math and you know what you are looking for. Factor in the MOV frequency benefits to teasers and certain lines that are out of whack beg to be teased. It is like working the mailers in a casino. You can generate a lot of EV without much handicapping involved.
    For an additional benefit, you should use 5dimes.eu. Best bookie for US players. And they also offer a +EV unlimited promotion which is 'reduced juice' Best lines you will find on the net. On average a normal spread is -110, you will find it at -105 or lower with also sometimes a more favorable 1/2 point spread less than other bookies. Pays off in the long run.

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