Sharky's NFL play of the week

[Exoter175]

Which team? The Cowboys.

Should we bet WAS + 9 (vs. PHI)??

Short Answer, don't bet it, though Philly will win.

Long Answer, with RG3 back at QB in an offense more "manageable" for his skill sets, their offense can actually move the ball. I don't expect them to be competitive with the Eagles, but spotting Washington 9 points at home on a "short" week, I wouldn't feel too confident, and its not that I don't feel Philly is a great team or anything, I think they are one of the best the NFC has to offer, but they are likely going to be missing out on the playoffs this year and that's got to be on their minds a little.

I"d say there's about a 70% chance that Philly takes care of business on the road against Washington, and about a 55% chance that they cover on the road against Washington. There's just too much "up in the air" right now with both teams to really lock this one down. If it were New England, Indy, Green Bay, hell, even KC, Seattle, Buffalo, or Miami, I'd have taken that bet. But Philly and Washington with historical trends favoring Washington in this game?

I wouldn't bet it, despite my numbers saying there's a decent chance at a cover.

[Three]

I was deliberately making the post a little cryptic. Let me rephrase it. In the original post and the restructured one, the team was/is specifically mentioned.

This whole season, teams are 1-8 SU and 0-9 ATS after a loss to a different team. Avg margin for the 9 defeated teams' next game = -9.56 points.

I was deliberately making the post a little cryptic. Let me rephrase it. In the original post and the restructured one, the team was/is specifically mentioned.
___

Yeah, you are still being a little cryptic but I guess I misinterpreted you intent the first time. You were talking about SEA the entire time. That is a very valuable stat. I made a lot of money betting against teams that played either BAL or PIT the previous week in years past. PIT isn't that kind of team anymore and BAL is not as strong an influence on next weeks games for opponents. I didn't bet much in those days so I would ask my old boss to bet for me a small amount. He knew if I asked him to bet in those years it was a sure thing because I did it so rarely and would put 10 to 100 times or more than my bet on the game on the game as well.

[Math Demon]

Here! Let me make it easier... BUT it was there all along!

Which team? The Cowboys.

[Math Demon]

I haven't completed my analysis. Just wanted to hear what you guys think.

JAX - 3.5, Under 40
WAS + 9*, Under 50
SD + 1, SD ML -103, Under 41.5


Thanks!

JAX - 4.5, Under 39 ---> won & won

I didn't care enough to watch the game. But it won a small bet!


2 Team PARLAY
$ 10.00 wagered to win $ 26.00
at 12-18-2014 xx:xx
Odds : 2.60 to 1
Via Website PARLAY
WIN $ 26.00
12-18-2014 20:25
NFL JACKSONVILLE to Win -4.5 (-110)
TENNESSEE vs JACKSONVILLE
TENNESSEE 13 JACKSONVILLE 21
status : WIN
12-18-2014 20:25
NFL Point Total Under 39 (-110)
TENNESSEE vs JACKSONVILLE
TENNESSEE 13 JACKSONVILLE 21
status : WIN

[Three]

Here! Let me make it easier... BUT it was there all along!

Sorry for being so dense. I thought you were asking an opinion on the PHI game this week when you said "which team" not cryptically giving the team. LOL I should have gotten it.

[Math Demon]

Sorry for being so dense. I thought you were asking an opinion on the PHI game this week when you said "which team" not cryptically giving the team. LOL I should have gotten it.

LOL! I thought you were purposefully being obtuse.

If you feel inclined to look up other teams and post the results, please look at these types of teams.

Tthree: For example, DAL played SFO in Week 1, TEN in Week 2, STL in Week 3, NO in Week 4, etc.
DAL's opponents lose their next game 2-11 SU, 1-12 ATS. That's the reason for the "WAS + 9" inquiry.


NOTE: NYG (3-10 SU, 2-11 ATS). Twice, DAL lost (SU and ATS) right after playing NYG.


Previous Opponent: Cowboys

Wk Team Opp. Score SU ATS
2 49ers Bears 20-28 L L
3 Titans Bengals 7-33 L L
5 Rams Eagles 28-34 L L
5 Saints Buccaneers 37-31 W L
6 Texans Colts 28-33 L L
7 Seahawks Rams 26-28 L L
9 Redskins Vikings 26-29 L L
9 Giants Colts 24-40 L L
10 Cardinals Rams 31-14 W W
12 Jaguars Colts 3-23 L L
13 Giants Jaguars 24-25 L L
14 Eagles Seahawks 14-24 L L
15 Bears Saints 15-31 L L
16 Eagles Redskins



The following are the teams, and their opponents' records on the very next game after they play them.

team* ATS SU
Cowboys 1-12 2-11
Giants 2-11 3-10
Seahawks 3-10 4-9
Redskins 3-9 4-9
Patriots 4-9 5-7-1
Panthers 4-9 5-8
Raiders 4-9 5-8
Bengals 5-8 5-8
Falcons 5-8 5-8
Jets 5-8 6-7
Colts 5-8 7-6
Eagles 5-8 7-6
Saints 5-8 8-5
Lions 6-7 4-9
Chargers 7-6 7-6
Dolphins 7-6 7-6
Chiefs 7-6 8-5
Rams 7-6 9-4
Broncos 8-5 6-7
Steelers 8-5 6-7
Browns 8-5 7-6
Buccaneers 8-5 7-6
49ers 8-5 7-6
Packers 8-5 7-6
Ravens 8-5 7-6
Vikings 8-5 9-4
Cardinals 9-3 10-3
Jaguars 9-4 8-5
Bears 10-3 7-5-1
Bills 10-3 7-6
Texans 10-3 9-4
Titans 10-3 9-4


* SEA's data can be explained by the team's physical play. How about the DAL, NYG, and WAS; NE, CAR and OAK; HOU and BUF?

[Three]

Saturdays Pick:
1) SD +2.5

[Sharky]

This week features a rare DOUBLE P-O-T-W as, all factors considered, both of these opportunities graded equally, value wise.

PHILADELPHIA visits the tumultuous Washington Redskins today as their franchise QB, RGIII, returns to the helm….in a must win game, look for EAGLES to make it 3 in a row against the beleaguered Skins’….take PHILLY -7 for this week’s 1^st play

GREEN BAY visits Tampa Bay after a hugely disappointing loss to the Bills last week...in typical Rodgers fashion, he took the blame, although his receivers had an atrocious case of the drops…TB’s defense is no Buffalo, so look for the PACK’ to rebound nicely, take GREEN BAY -11 for this week’s 2^nd play

GOOD LUCK!

Sharky

Last week: 1-0
Season: 12-5

[Math Demon]

I haven't completed my analysis. Just wanted to hear what you guys think.

JAX - 3.5, Under 40
WAS* + 9, Under 50
SD + 1, SD ML -103, Under 41.5

JAX - 4.5, Under 39

I didn't care enough to watch the game. But it won a small bet!

2 Team PARLAY
$ 10.00 wagered to win $ 26.00
at 12-18-2014 xx:xx
Odds : 2.60 to 1
Via Website PARLAY
WIN $ 26.00
12-18-2014 20:25
NFL JACKSONVILLE to Win -4.5 (-110)
TENNESSEE vs JACKSONVILLE
TENNESSEE 13 JACKSONVILLE 21
status : WIN
12-18-2014 20:25
NFL Point Total Under 39 (-110)
TENNESSEE vs JACKSONVILLE
TENNESSEE 13 JACKSONVILLE 21
status : WIN

I may be onto something! For the last 2 weeks:

"Week-14 method" was 5-0 in actual OU bets, 7-0 in OU picks (including 2 no-plays); 6-4 in actual ATS bets, 8-7 in ATS picks (including 2-3 on "incomplete analysis no-plays"); 2-0 in actual ML upset bets (ML+135, ML +155), 3-0 in ML upset picks (ML+135, ML+155, ML+110). Money Line upset picks are also counted as ATS wins.

For Week 16 TNF: 1-0 ATS, 1-0 OU
__

"Week-14 method" is 6-0 in actual OU bets, 8-0 in OU picks (including 2 no-plays); 7-4 in actual ATS bets, 9-7 in ATS picks (including 2-3 on "incomplete analysis no-plays"); 2-0 in actual ML upset bets (ML+135, ML +155), 3-0 in ML upset picks (ML+135, ML+155, ML+110). Money Line upset picks are also counted as ATS wins.


Saturday picks:
SD @ SFO Under 41
SD + 1.5
SD ML + 112 & Under 41 (parlay)

Will post Sunday picks tomorrow.



* I was tempted when WAS + 9, now the best line is WAS + 8. No play.

[Three]

* I was tempted when WAS + 9, now the best line is WAS +8. No play.

I was going to take WAS +9 as well. Both teams are beast moded last week so that stat balances out. When I went to bet the line had moved to +8 which was not enough for a bet. I get PHI by 5'ish so I need at least 8.5 to justify a weak bet. At least I got that early bet down on SD.

[Three]

Okay, Got back from hunting this morning. No deer, Helped the wife with Christmas stuff. I has put up my Saturday picks because I wasn't sure if I would hunt all day or not. Now I have time to post the other picks I bet this week:

Sharky, I wish you luck this week and I would have picked GB earlier in the year but down the stretch I wouldn't bet either due to too many points given up. I might and almost did bet WAS but missed getting my line by a little bit of time. GB should destroy TB but they only need to win not win by 12. I don't see them risking injury for such a large MOV. They may very well cover but this time of the year I would and did pass on the game. To be honest I didn't even analyze it because the only bet I would consider is taking the boatload of points and I knew that was not a good bet.

1) SD +2.5 @ SF: There are some worrisome injuries on SD but SF is a wagon that the wheels have fallen off, the termites have eaten the wood etc. No team cohesion. Heads will roll. Top defensive player out this week

2) ATL +7 @ NO: Starting LT for NO will likely not play. That is a tough position to have depth at and one of the most important positions on a football team. This will be a close game. The points should cover IF NO wins.

3) CAR -3 over CLE: CLE gave up when they switched QBs 2 games ago. They were essentially eliminated from the post season then and after losing last week the now are eliminated. They look like they are playing for draft picks/easier schedule for next year and don't want to win. I don't think Manzel will cut it as a pro QB. He will make lots of mistakes in this game that cost CLE the game. If CLE were playing to win I would lay off this game. I hope it doesn't bite me in the BR.

4) BAL -4.5 @ HOU: BAL big defensive weakness is the deeper passes. HOU is starting a QB that wasn't even on any NFL teams roster this year. BAL brings a ton of pressure. HOU likes to run and will feel forced to run. BAL has a good run D and will know the run is coming. Adrian Foster isn't going to be enough to win this one once BAL can pin their ears back to stuff the run. BAL will have to lose it. I don't see that happening. I hope they cover which is a different question. The line is almost too much but all things considered I think BAL should be motivated to be ahead by 7 or more. I just hope HOU doesn't get the last TD.

5) BUF -5.5 @ OAK: This one is almost all based on huge injury clusters on both sides of the ball for OAK. Their offense is missing their back up RT. Not as bad as the LT but when facing a team with 49 sacks in 14 games it hurts. The QB has an injured thumb on his throwing hand. Their blocking TE is out. OAK defensehas their 1st and 2nd string RCB's are out and their LCB position has the 1st and 2nd string injured. Throw in an injury to the RDE and things don't look good for OAK OAK is a passing team facing a tough pass defense that brings pressure. BUF should be able to exploit enough of the banged up D-backfield to win easily.

6) BUF/OAK Under 40: in a low scoring game unless BUF destroys OAK current defensive weaknesses.

7) IND/DAL Under 56: I was liking DAL in this game but there are just too many injuries on both sides to KEY OFFENSIVE PLAYERS. IND will be without their starting RT and RG and a backup Guard/Tackle and their 2 best WR are playing hurt. DAL has similar injuries to the O-line but the players may start (RT and RG), DAL key RB is injured and may not play. DAL needs to play to win. They can't rest players until PHI loses 1 more than DAL in the 2 remaining games. If PHI wins today DAL must win tomorrow to stay in control of their destiny. The only seeding tie breaker they can win is head to head with SEA.

8) DEN -3 @ CIN: Dalton sucks under post season pressure and under the lights with a nationally televised game. He will be without his all important starting LT most likely. Peyton will have lots of injured secondary players to test for weaknesses but I wouldn't be surprised if they ran the ball most of the time because the game is well in hand.

I will look at the Over/Unders closer overnight. I like to make sure of weather before making those picks. Early picks are either California or dome games.

[Math Demon]

I haven't completed my analysis. Just wanted to hear what you guys think.

JAX - 3.5, Under 40
WAS + 9*, Under 50
SD + 1, SD ML -103, Under 41.5


Thanks!



* In case you're wondering why WAS + 9, read my next post.

Beast-Moded -- Part 2



I saw these previously-mentioned stats on one of the NFL sites:

"In the last 7 games (win or lose), teams are 0-7 SU and 0-7 ATS after a game against the Seahawks. For 2014, teams are 4-8 SU and 3-9 ATS after a game against the Seahawks." Now it's 0-8 SU and 0-8 ATS / 4-9 SU and 3-10 ATS.

__


I got curious and looked another one up:

This whole season, teams are 1-8 SU and 0-9 ATS after a loss to another team. Avg margin for the 9 defeated teams' next game = -9.56 points.

Teams are 2-11 SU and 1-12 ATS (exception: The Cardinals) after a game (win or lose) against this same team. Avg margin (13 teams) = -6.92 points



Which team? The Cowboys.

Should we bet WAS + 9 (vs. PHI)??


.

LOL! I thought you were purposefully being obtuse.




Tthree: For example, DAL played SFO in Week 1, TEN in Week 2, STL in Week 3, NO in Week 4, etc.
DAL's opponents lose their next game 2-11 SU, 1-12 ATS. That's the reason for the "WAS + 9" inquiry.


NOTE: NYG (3-10 SU, 2-11 ATS). Twice, DAL lost (SU and ATS) right after playing NYG.


Previous Opponent: Cowboys

Wk Team Opp. Score SU ATS
2 49ers Bears 20-28 L L
3 Titans Bengals 7-33 L L
5 Rams Eagles 28-34 L L
5 Saints Buccaneers 37-31 W L
6 Texans Colts 28-33 L L
7 Seahawks Rams 26-28 L L
9 Redskins Vikings 26-29 L L
9 Giants Colts 24-40 L L
10 Cardinals Rams 31-14 W W
12 Jaguars Colts 3-23 L L
13 Giants Jaguars 24-25 L L
14 Eagles Seahawks 14-24 L L
15 Bears Saints 15-31 L L
16 Eagles Redskins



The following are the teams, and their opponents' records on the very next game after they play them.

team* ATS SU
Cowboys 1-12 2-11
Giants 2-11 3-10
Seahawks 3-10 4-9
Redskins 3-9 4-9
Patriots 4-9 5-7-1
Panthers 4-9 5-8
Raiders 4-9 5-8
Bengals 5-8 5-8
Falcons 5-8 5-8
Jets 5-8 6-7
Colts 5-8 7-6
Eagles 5-8 7-6
Saints 5-8 8-5
Lions 6-7 4-9
Chargers 7-6 7-6
Dolphins 7-6 7-6
Chiefs 7-6 8-5
Rams 7-6 9-4
Broncos 8-5 6-7
Steelers 8-5 6-7
Browns 8-5 7-6
Buccaneers 8-5 7-6
49ers 8-5 7-6
Packers 8-5 7-6
Ravens 8-5 7-6
Vikings 8-5 9-4
Cardinals 9-3 10-3
Jaguars 9-4 8-5
Bears 10-3 7-5-1
Bills 10-3 7-6
Texans 10-3 9-4
Titans 10-3 9-4


* SEA's data can be explained by the team's physical play. How about the DAL, NYG, and WAS; NE, CAR and OAK; HOU and BUF?

For Week 16 TNF: 1-0 ATS, 1-0 OU
__

"Week-14 method" is 6-0 in actual OU bets, 8-0 in OU picks (including 2 no-plays); 7-4 in actual ATS bets, 9-7 in ATS picks (including 2-3 on "incomplete analysis no-plays"); 2-0 in actual ML upset bets (ML+135, ML +155), 3-0 in ML upset picks (ML+135, ML+155, ML+110). Money Line upset picks are also counted as ATS wins.


Saturday picks:
SD @ SFO Under 41
SD + 1.5
SD ML + 112 & Under 41 (parlay)

Will post Sunday picks tomorrow.



* I was tempted when WAS + 9, now the best line is WAS + 8. No play.

Beast-Moded -- Part 2


DAL played SFO in Week 1, TEN in Week 2, STL in Week 3, NO in Week 4, etc.
DAL's opponents lose their next game 2-12 SU, 1-13 ATS. That's the reason for the "WAS + 9" inquiry.


NOTE: NYG (3-10 SU, 2-11 ATS). Twice, DAL lost (SU and ATS) right after playing NYG.


Previous Opponent: Cowboys

Wk Team Opp. Score SU ATS
2 49ers Bears 20-28 L L
3 Titans Bengals 7-33 L L
5 Rams Eagles 28-34 L L
5 Saints Buccaneers 37-31 W L
6 Texans Colts 28-33 L L
7 Seahawks Rams 26-28 L L
9 Redskins Vikings 26-29 L L
9 Giants Colts 24-40 L L
10 Cardinals Rams 31-14 W W
12 Jaguars Colts 3-23 L L
13 Giants Jaguars 24-25 L L
14 Eagles Seahawks 14-24 L L
15 Bears Saints 15-31 L L

16 Eagles Redskins 24-27 L L

17 Colts Titans ??

LOL! LOL!

I was going to take WAS +9 as well. Both teams are beast moded last week so that stat balances out. When I went to bet the line had moved to +8 which was not enough for a bet. I get PHI by 5'ish so I need at least 8.5 to justify a weak bet. At least I got that early bet down on SD.

Tthree, I think you're psychic. BUT you already knew I was going to say that, right?

[Three]

No takers for the week 16 undefeated home dog angle with AZ +8? I can't blame you but that is a very strong angle. Moses how many years have you been waiting for an 8 point 7-0 home dog? LOL