Sharky's NFL play of the week

[Three]

For an additional benefit, you should use 5dimes.eu. Best bookie for US players. And they also offer a +EV unlimited promotion which is 'reduced juice' Best lines you will find on the net. On average a normal spread is -110, you will find it at -105 or lower with also sometimes a more favorable 1/2 point spread less than other bookies. Pays off in the long run.

The other part of playing many online services is the 100% deposit bonus in free play. You can negotiate your deal for lower rollover but the middles help eat through the rollover and get that cash out. All you risk is the vig on the winning bet. Often the vig can be reduced 10 -107 or-105 or even +103 or +105 for a positive vig bookend to your middle. Of course you hit the middle and you win both bets.

[ZenKinG]

ARZ up to +9.5 at -105 on 5dimes. Im thinking about buying a point and making it +10.5 for -130. A touchdown and field goal loss and im in the money. You have to factor in their will be a lot of field goals tonight with limited touchdowns with two top defenses so i think it's smart to buy that extra point for a 10.5 and ARZ pickers should be golden with a 10 point cushion.

Seattle also just clinched a playoff berth with Dallas beating Indianapolis. Look for a little more conservative effort. ARZ will definitly cover +10.5 and probably even +9.5

[Three]

ARZ up to +9.5 at -105 on 5dimes. Im thinking about buying a point and making it +10.5 for -130. A touchdown and field goal loss and im in the money. You have to factor in their will be a lot of field goals tonight with limited touchdowns with two top defenses so i think it's smart to buy that extra point for a 10.5 and ARZ pickers should be golden with a 10 point cushion.

You are giving away most of your value.

105 to win 100 or 20:21 (10:10.5) payout.
130 to win 100 or 10:13 payout. You are risking about 25% more for one point. If the play is that weak don't make it. 10 is a more frequent MOV but only 3 is worth that much maybe 7 but I wouldn't do that for the 7.

http://www.sportingcharts.com/articl...n-the-nfl.aspx

What is next playing 6:5 BJ? If you want more points tease the game with a site that gives 1:1 on 2-team 6 point teasers.

[ZenKinG]

You are giving away most of your value.

105 to win 100 or 20:21 (10:10.5) payout.
130 to win 100 or 10:13 payout. You are risking about 25% more for one point. If the play is that weak don't make it. 10 is a more frequent MOV but only 3 is worth that much maybe 7 but I wouldn't do that for the 7.

http://www.sportingcharts.com/articl...n-the-nfl.aspx

What is next playing 6:5 BJ? If you want more points tease the game with a site that gives 1:1 on 2-team 6 point teasers.

Only because of Lindley and his inexperience and track record and if he throw's a pick 6 or multiple turnovers. That extra 3 point cushion might be crucial. I dont mind a -130

[Gamblor]

ARZ+8 at home. Too many points for an undefeated home team who got their record without great quarterback play. Arizona wins with defense and should be able to cover 8 at home in a game that could clinch the division with so they will be motivated.

NYJ+10 at home. Last home game for Jets, rivalry game, too many points. Jets cover

IND+3.5 on the road. Dallas is all about Demarco Murray and he wil not be effective today with his injured hand. Romo is also hurt. Big game for IND as well so they will come out hard. If T.Y Hilton doesn't play, it makes this a toss up imo

HOU+6 Too many points for Hou at home. This game can make or break Houstons playoffs hopes. JJ Watt will cause havoc on Flacco

Straight bet each game and you will make money today. I expect at least 3 of these 4 picks will cover. Just don't parlary it like many gamblers like too

All hail Nostradamus! Yeah, as a Giants fan as much as I would like to pick against the Cowgirls, Bryant always scares me.

[Three]

Only because of Lindley and his inexperience and track record and if he throw's a pick 6 or multiple turnovers. That extra 3 point cushion might be crucial. I dont mind a -130

It is your money. I suggest you research the affect of margin of victory on different lines, teasing different numbers and deciding how much over a line must a prediction be to make it worth it. All these things revolve around margin of victory frequencies. Most bookies changed their teaser odds in the last year or two because any fool could make money by understanding the value behind moving the spread across certain numbers. You are missing the easy money but these factors are still very important part of handicapping.

The difference between +1 and +1.5 is almost nothing. Tease the +1 and you pick up MOV 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and push the 7. Tease the +1.5 and you pick up MOV 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7. The frequency of MOV for these numbers and up to the number you want to buy:
2: 3.45%
3: 15.67%
4: 5.17%
5: 2.96%
6: 5.55%
7: 9.67%

8: 3.11%
9: 1.50%
10: 6.03%

As you can see that 1 point move is worth 2.5 times more when it is the 3 than the 10 and about 1.5 times more when it is the 7. A lot of handicapping is managing these MOV frequencies and knowing their value. The difference in the lines +2.5 to +3 to +3.5 is huge. The difference in the lines +7.5 to +9.5 is not. the 10 is an important number. It is the third highest MOV frequency but it isn't much better than 4, 6 and 14. Teasing it really isn't that great a move but it is cheaper than buying than point. For teasers you would love to pick up the 3, 4, 6, and 7 along with whatever other numbers come with them. If I was thinking I would have teased SEA +7.5 to +1.5 when it was available. I missed that opportunity.

When I have a line of -2.5, I need a predicted MOV 5 points. When I have a line of -8, I need a predicted MOV of 12.5 points. Those 2 points shaved from what is necessary over the spread is because of the MOV frequencies of the numbers in between. The score differential in football is not linear. Each increment has its own frequency of occurrence.

[Three]

All hail Nostradamus! Yeah, as a Giants fan as much as I would like to pick against the Cowgirls, Bryant always scares me.

Add to that that IND is pretty much locked into the wild card round. They would need either DEN or NE to lose their last 2 and IND to win theirs to change that. NE played before them so you knew they would know how their first game turned out. NE won. That leaves DEN losing both @ CIN and hosting OAK. Why risk injury when you have nothing to gain? They could either rest their key starters and play them a series or two or risk injury or demoralizing embarassment with nothing to gain. I was amazed how long IND left their key players in. If Luck got knocked out of the playoffs due to injury heads could roll on the coaching staff. Weaknesses got exposed and IND learned and showed they likely won't go deep into the post season.

Being able to spot the teams clicking going into the playoffs is key. DAL, SEA and NE are all clicking for the time being. they need to do two things. Stay sharp and stay healthy.

[ZenKinG]

Iy is your money. I suggest you researchthe affect of margin of victory on different lines, teasing different numbers and deciding how much over a line must a prediction be to make it worth it. All these things revolve around margin of victory frequencies. Most bookies changed their teaser odds in the last year or two because any fool could make money by understanding the value behind moving the spread across certain numbers. You are missing the easy money but these factors are still very important part of handicapping.

The difference between +1 and +1.5 is almost nothing. Tease the +1 and you pick up MOV 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and push the 7. Tease the +1.5 and you pick up MOV 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7. The frequency of MOV for these numbers and up to the number you want to buy:
2: 3.45%
3: 15.67%
4: 5.17%
5: 2.96%
6: 5.55%
7: 9.67%

8: 3.11%
9: 1.50%
10: 6.03%

As you can see that 1 point move is worth 2.5 times more when it is the 3 than the 10 and about 1.5 times more when it is the 7. A lot of handicapping is managing these MOV frequencies and knowing their value. The difference in the lines +2.5 to +3 to +3.5 is huge. The difference in the lines +7.5 to +9.5 is not. the 10 is an important number. It is the third highest MOV frequency but it isn't much better than 4, 6 and 14. Teasing it really isn't that great a move but it is cheaper than buying than point. For teasers you would love to pick up the 3, 4, 6, and 7 along with whatever other numbers come with them. If I was thinking I would have teased SEA +7.5 to +1.5 when it was available. I missed that opportunity.

When I have a line of -2.5, I need a predicted MOV 5 points. When I have a line of -8, I need a predicted MOV of 12.5 points. Those 2 points shaved from what is necessary over the spread is because of the MOV frequencies of the numbers in between. The score differential in football is not linear. Each increment has its own frequency of occurrence.

I understand the points you are making. I'm more of an NBA better and I think I use whatyyou're talking about. In basket ball games very rarely end up in the 4, 5, 6 point difference because teams start fouling at the end of the game when it is in that range to try and get another possession and see of the other team misses free throws. So in the nba I rarely take 3.5 to 6.5 spreads.

[ZenKinG]

Note to self, never bet on a 3rd string quarterback ever again even with a 10 point spread at home where you never lost a game. Pathetic

[Math Demon]

I'll probably be kicking myself tonight.

Are you kicking yourself? You shouldn't. ARZ just got blown out by SEA, 35-6.

I decided to pass. But I'll probably be kicking myself tonight. There have been alot of great QBs on bad teams. The QB alone doesn't get a team to 11-4. So I'm thinking AZ has some talent. Larry Fitzgerald is no slouch. 3rd string QB doesn't need to make great plays...just not screw up.

ARZ's luck ran out! And the pretenders were finally exposed.

Lindley still has zero TDs, 1 more INT.

Fitzgerald looked pedestrian with only 17 yards in 3 total catches going into the final 2-minute warning. Every receiver needs a QB. Not just one who plays one on TV. LOL!

Wonder why they even have him on the payroll. Imagine an NFL QB that can't throw a forward pass. Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. Might have something to do with their defense. 49ers were considered to be good at the seasons beginning. Line is climbing so bettors see your logic.

Which defense? The ARZ defense which allowed 600+ total yards??? Or 339 passing yds, 2 TDs, no INT? Or 267 rushing yards? Or 11.3 ypc for Lynch? Or 139 yards in 3 catches for L. Wilson?

__

Yeah! In this case, most bettors followed logic, and won.

[Math Demon]

You have more balls than I do, that's for sure. If I had to bet anything going into that game it would have been the over, but I'd never have touched that with a ten foot pole, it was just "too close" to be confident, and having seen the Cowboys crumble year after year, there's no certainty in that pick.

I have little doubt that Dallas will drop AT LEAST 2 of their next 3 games, if not all 3 with how Shaky and "Nervous" that team gets in the 4th quarter of the season, year after year.

In a similar situation to Dallas, you have the Rams which have really been showing hot streaks, but have unfavorable matchups week after week it seems. I've made a ton of money on them this year being a "local" team that I often have to over-think-about for the local casinos' free "pick ems" they do every week, but good lord were the first 8 games of their season really hit or miss.

I reallllllly want to go out on a limb this week with them, especially since Tre, Stedman, and Tavon have really begun to work in that system under Jeff Fisher.

There's some reallllllly solid matchups this week to play with.

No, I just have two! It's just that they're so huge, and made of brass, that I can hardly walk.

If you watched the game, you will see that the Cowboys dominated. At one point, they led by 25 points. I would never call a game like that close. They did allow garbage-time yards and points. Pregame analysis of the stats indicated that the game will NOT be close.


The Forte fumble that you termed "an anomaly" was a strip fumble actively created by the DAL Defense.

Cutler's INT was NOT an anomaly. It was pretty much expected. Before that game, he had 14 INTs in 12 games. He is EXPECTED to throw one INT per game.

The only game that I can see them losing is against IND at home. DAL is just 3-4 at home.

With ten days to rest, practice, and prepare to play at PHI, the game against the Eagles will be a closer affair, probably ending up with a DAL win. They will win the season-finale at WAS, probably ending 8-0 on the road.
__

This year's team is different! The O-Line is stronger (and works together better), the running game is working, the Defense is better than last year's Defense. They have Linehan (new Offense play-caller) and Marinelli (new Def Coordinator), thus the Offensive and Defensive schemes are different. Garrett is getting more experience as a head coach.




We both looked at the same stats. You probably even have more detailed information than I do. Your problem was prejudice!! You had predetermined that the Cowboys were NO good (based solely by looking at the calendar), and only saw evidence to support that prejudice.


There is NO shame in admitting that you are wrong. What is absurd is insisting that you are right, when every newspaper, newscast, and sports site show evidence that you are NOT.



Thanks for your input!

4. There's no chance Dallas beats Indy and Philly on the road, there's just not a snowballs chance in hell of that happening.

The Cowboys's disastrous December:

2014-12-04 -- DAL 41, CHI 28 -- ATS win, SU win
2014-12-14 -- DAL 38, PHI 27 -- ATS win, SU win, NFC East Leader
2014-12-21 -- DAL 42, IND 07*-- ATS win, SU win, NFC East Winner

2014-12-28 -- DAL @ WAS -- The Cowboys should rest Romo and Murray (after he breaks another one of Emmitt Smith's records)


* The Cowboys's defense was so close to a shutout ... but allowed a single score in the tail-end of the 4th quarter. Grrrr!

[Math Demon]

A Very Angry Bears Fan Christmas

[Three]

I didn't see the DET/CHI game but was score watching.I thought about betting CHI once they benched Cuitler but decided not to unfortunately. The score said they were competitive for the first time in many games with a Jimmy Clausen, career rating 58.6. under center in a must win game for DET. I guess anything is better than Cutler. Funny video. Now they eather write off next year with Cutler at QB, bench him and get a QB that can think in the pocket or trade him if another team is desperate enough to get someone that makes poor decisions under pressure. Only the later lets them get out from under some of the horrible contract.I am sure they would be required to eat some of his salary in the trade.

Using stats is an art. With football knowledge you learn why a stat is so in order to know whether to apply it or not in a situation. Your question to explain the beast mode stats was a good one. I understand I understood the BAL and PIT beast mode stat years ago and the SEA beast mode stat is likely explained the same way. But The others I will need to look at closer to try to explain. Some may be a product of scheduling. At this point in the season it is probably not worth it. That is were the term beast mode comes from, playing an extremely physical game that requires more time to rebound from than the schedule allows.

Ex just uses stats without regard to changes that make them irrelevant or more relevant. We call that a stat guy. This is one who just looks at stats and trends with no concern about understanding them in order to use them effectively. Their handicapping is simply sighting historic stats with no effort to give them context and weight them accordingly. All trends come to an end. Knowing why a trend occurs and seeing that it no longer is the case allows you to eliminate trends that will die as they stop being trends rather than losing in order to find this out. MD has sighted a few in his previous posts. Ex also used QB stats from years back on teams they no longer play for when matched up against a particular team. I can't remember them all but he made this stat guy mistake over and over. Sometimes it cost him sometimes the garbage data got the right answer. He got lucky with the latter early but for a long time now that luck has run out. The DAL trend was current going into this year but DAL has been beefing up their O-line primarily to protect Romo's longevity but with the by-product of getting a great running game. Once they started taking advantage of the run and Romo wasn't a 1 dimensional QB asked to throw way too much his decision making got much better. He decided to eat sacks without a hit rather than extend plays or throw an ill-advised pass and take a hit. The reason for the stat originally was 2 fold.
1) DAL is a nationally marketed team. There are only a few in the NFL so the league makes sure they are in the mix and have an interesting schedule down the stretch by playing division rivals and/or teams that are traditional contenders or expected to be in the playoff picture this year.
2) Romo was trying to do too much on his own since they were playing great teams down in December and were in a situation that running was less the option than usual. They usually passed anyway except with a big lead and would force things in the clutch which cost the Cowboys the game. This year they run at least as often as pass due to the strength of that O-line drafted to extend Romo's career. This years schedule in December, @ CHI, @ PHI, hosting IND and @ WAS, is not nearly as difficult as DAL is accustomed to in December from previous years.
So both reasons for the stat no longer apply. If you understood football enough you would know not to use the stat going into December this year or at least give it minimal weight in your analysis. If you are just a stat guy you used it until you lost so much you stop using it.

Understanding why stats exist allow people that understand the game to stop using them as the trends shift not after. That also allows you to bet trends before they become trends. The stat guys don't care to understand why trends occur and use them until they have brought them to the wrong conclusion to many times in a row. That means losing for a while.I have no doubt Exoter understands football very well as a player. That is a small part of the knowledge needed to be a successful handicapper.

You must understand how to set a score and how to modify it with specifics to the week or the matchup. You must understand league marketing strategy and how that affects stats. You must understand how stats are used differently in different parts of the season and why. You must understand how lines are set and what drives their moves. You must understand why stats are the way they are in order to know what matchups they won't apply to and when they will no longer apply. You must understand the scoring math that determines the value of various lines and score predictions, you must know how the cap dance is played effectively and the risk reward to various contracts, you must know how different matchups will play out and the predictability of this assessment which allows a variance assessment to the play on the field, how injuries and the depth of teams at different positions will play out, a related topic is how good the players are around that position. etc. The list is so long nobody can do it all. I could have gone on for a lot more but I covered the most important ones.

Too many think that "knowing football" will make them an expert handicapper. I hope Ex 's giant ego has been humbled by being wrong over and over again. Then maybe he can start to learn. So far I haven't seen any indication of it but I haven't seen his posts in a while except the parts people quote. He could have started picking ATS to show he can handicap and is picking at near 100% for all I know. I would be really surprised if that is the case but you never know. Even a blind squirrel ...

Good luck to all. Remember the genius that believes he can still learn a lot will learn more than the know it all that thinks he can't learn anything or see when he is wrong. The know it all stopped learning a long time ago but the genius continues to learn. Be the one that can learn rather than the one that can't. I have learned more this year from this thread and networking with others in this thread than in any previous year I can remember. I thank everyone for that. It may be because last year was the first year I didn't pick over 60% in decades so my ego took a hit and I wanted to learn why the changes in the NFL has made my methods less effective. I may never get back to the unbelievable pick rate I had before last year as a given but I am confident I can continue to learn and improve and adapt to the new NFL.

Thank you everyone for your contributions to this great thread Sharky has had going back across at least 1 other site before Norm's existed. Good luck to all this week and remember who will be playing to win and who will be playing for draft picks or trying to stay healthy for the playoffs because the game is meaningless to the post season. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays.