10-12k BR 15-150 too much?

[MidwestTom]

I have been playing blackjack with an advantage for nearly 18 months and working in a casino dealing for 3 years. I recently got a FS job at a MW casino where I was trained to card count.. I've been fooling around in the MW & California casinos for years and since learning how to count basic high/low +1/ 0 / -1 strategy I'm up roughly 10k profit . I bet $15-20 at the beginning of the shoe and move to two spots on + True Count when 1/2-3/4 of the shoe has been played ( I typically spread 20-30 x2 and work up to 150x2 .) The most I was up was about 14.7k, ( from a 1,200 buy-in in California 2/13 ) I've since been on a losing terror and have about 10k. ITS OBVIOUS I'm betting over my BR with my 15-150x2 bet spread. My last 3 trips I have lost 1200-1800 QUICK, lost confidence and found myself trying to nickel and dime my money back on the craps table. My question is with a 10k bankroll, what should the MOST lost per trip, I know that losing +10% of my BR is ridiculous. Also bankroll permitting is two hands to much to play at 15-150, I've been looking at it as "if I get blackjack on one hand and a 20 on the other hand and dealer turns over a 20 then I'll at least be making my odds from the blackjack as the profit for the round. "

I usually play 6D 15 min
2D in California 25 min

All advise is appreciated !

-Tom

[Zach Black]

I'd suggest getting the blackjack simulator CVCX http://www.qfit.com/blackjack-simulation.htm for $85 and do the optimal bet ramp calculations based on the games, your bankroll, risk level, and counting system.

If you have Blackjack Attack 3 (Don Schlesinger), you could interpolate values from the charts in chapter 10. If you don't have BJA3, it's also a worthwhile investment.

[MidwestTom]

Well since I've mainly been playing 6D I figured that learning another count method wouldn't be worth while . I read Blackjack For The Blood and there were many count strategies talked about but they mainly pertained to 1D & 2D.

[MidwestTom]

Is using the +1 / 0 / -1 count system; is that effective ? I know it's an entry level count but from my understanding it makes 6D worth counting & running down until the CC comes out

[Intermediate]

My question is with a 10k bankroll, what should the MOST lost per trip, I know that losing +10% of my BR is ridiculous. Also bankroll permitting is two hands to much to play at 15-150

How much you could lose or win on a trip is a function of how many hands you play, so it's hard to answer your question without knowing how long you played. To me, your losses sound reasonable, within the normal variance, for your betting, but I question your betting scheme. Your bank might be a little small for play all, 6D, but that depends on your acceptable Risk-of-Ruin. HiLo is used by a lot of pro's and teams so I think you're OK there.

Your bet ramp is (2x15-20 to 2x150) is too narrow for play all 6D. For that ramp, I would Wong (do you know what Wonging is?) The one thing that caught my eye was you start ramping 3/4 of the way into a shoe. Are you varying your bet size based on the True Count, or just increasing based on the True Count being positive (regardless of how positive) and being 3/4 through the shoe? If you were to play by the book, you would size your bet based on your Advantage. Your advantage is determined from the value of the True Count. How deep you are into the shoe is used to calculate the True Count, but by itself it is not a good criteria for ramping.

[Zach Black]

Well since I've mainly been playing 6D I figured that learning another count method wouldn't be worth while . I read Blackjack For The Blood and there were many count strategies talked about but they mainly pertained to 1D & 2D.

Is using the +1 / 0 / -1 count system; is that effective ? I know it's an entry level count but from my understanding it makes 6D worth counting & running down until the CC comes out

I didn't suggest you change systems. You requested help with optimal betting. I pointed you to the best information. CVCX software or the book BJA3.

There are multiple level one systems with the tags you describe, the most common being hi lo. {2,3,4,5,6=+1}, {7,8,9=0}, { X,A=-1} which is a balanced system that is true counted. Other level one systems have tags that are unbalanced and only a running count is maintained, so no remaining deck estimation is required.

Level one systems are effective for 6 deck games as long as the ace has a value of -1. If the ace has value of zero then a side count of aces is required.

Blackjack for blood is a good book for single deck, but I would suggest reading Professional Blackjack by Stanford Wong or Blackjack Blueprint, Rick Blaine for more on hi lo and how to apply it to a six deck game.

If you use a unbalanced system then the free book on this site, http://qfit.com/book/ModernBlackjackPage-7.htm is a good reference.

[MidwestTom]

I was reading about wonging on askthewizards but still not to familiar with it. It has something to do with jumping in and out on positive shoes, sitting on negative shoes, back counting, etc..? & I like to spread to two hands mid-way about 50% of the time If I've made money that shoe.. If the space is there I want to eat up the big cards, or get action on my nice size 60-90 wagers .. .. Also, what I read a lot is the Pro's commenting on what they make per hour, I tend to look at what I made/lost per shoe.

[Bodarc]

If you play all hands in 6D H17 NS NRA using High-Low with 4.5/6 cut and a 30 spread, playing 2 hands @ true count 2 and above with $10 minimum bet and a $10K bankroll, your spread at the following counts might be:
<=0 1x$10
1 1x$15
2 2x$40
3 2x$100
4 & above 2x$150
Your win/hour should be $ 34 with a 26% risk of ruin (losing your $10K). You have a low SCORE (A means of comparing games) of 23%

If you back count and play no hands with a count below 1, your win/hr should be $ $26 but it drops your ROR to 5%. Your SCORE then becomes 39 which is still low but better.
The reason your win/hr drops is because you will only be playing 26% of the hands.

These are the questions you can answer using CVCX and why you should buy the program.

Wonging is back counting and wonging in (entering the game at a certain count) or wonging out (leaving the game at a certain count). Named after Stanford Wong who first wrote about it I suppose.

[MidwestTom]

If you play all hands in 6D H17 NS NRA using High-Low with 4.5/6 cut and a 30 spread, playing 2 hands @ true count 2 and above with $10 minimum bet and a $10K bankroll, your spread at the following counts might be:
<=0 1x$10
1 1x$15
2 2x$40
3 2x$100
4 & above 2x$150
Your win/hour should be $ 34 with a 26% risk of ruin (losing your $10K). You have a low SCORE (A means of comparing games) of 23%

If you back count and play no hands with a count below 1, your win/hr should be $ $26 but it drops your ROR to 5%. Your SCORE then becomes 39 which is still low but better.
The reason your win/hr drops is because you will only be playing 26% of the hands.

These are the questions you can answer using CVCX and why you should buy the program.

Wonging is back counting and wonging in (entering the game at a certain count) or wonging out (leaving the game at a certain count). Named after Stanford Wong who first wrote about it I suppose.

All very good information and I appreciate people like yourself for reaching out to new networkers like myself with such information.. I will be purchasing the software after I conclude this trip and return to work Sunday. I also want to look more into "wonging" and the mathematical equation and definition of determining the RoR .. I want to do so because I want to know what my percentages are, as I'm at the table, not when I get back to my room and ro research. It's very fair to say I have A LOT of studying to do.
-T

[MidwestTom]

the most common being hi lo. {2,3,4,5,6=+1}, {7,8,9=0}, { X,A=-1} which is a balanced system that is true counted. Other level one systems have tags that are unbalanced and only a running count is maintained, so no remaining deck estimation is required.

Level one systems are effective for 6 deck games as long as the ace has a value of -1. If the ace has value of zero then a side count of aces is required.

If I were to stop counting A's wouldn't I need to stop counting one of my positive cards as well? Because then I'd have 2,3,4,5,6 +1 & only 10,J,Q,K -1 . If i were to keep a side count of Aces how would I input that in the BJ 6D game and ultimately play with an advantage?

[Ouchez]

Tom, Hi-lo is a fine count for shoes, you need no other. You must be very strong in indice plays, very strong. In DD you can use Hi-Lo-Lo which is hi-lo with and ace side for betting and a few deviations. You must be very disciplined in the games you play, and with your bankroll you must be very careful about your RR (Don't be greedy). BJ has high variance, but if you can STing variance can be greatly reduced.

Ouchez

[MJGolf]

Bodarc:

"If you play all hands in 6D H17 NS NRA using High-Low with 4.5/6 cut and a 30 spread, playing 2 hands @ true count 2 and above with $10 minimum bet and a $10K bankroll, your spread at the following counts might be:
<=0 1x$10
1 1x$15
2 2x$40
3 2x$100
4 & above 2x$150
Your win/hour should be $ 34 with a 26% risk of ruin (losing your $10K). You have a low SCORE (A means of comparing games) of 23%

If you back count and play no hands with a count below 1, your win/hr should be $ $26 but it drops your ROR to 5%. Your SCORE then becomes 39 which is still low but better.
The reason your win/hr drops is because you will only be playing 26% of the hands."

I have to learn to spread like you guys. Or come up with something better. If I spread like this, pit bosses here are all over me. Maybe I'm too nervous to bet the higher amounts often but anything above 1-4 spread..........though I can technically increase the spread by betting minimums at $10 table, seems to get too much attention. What is MY problem? Or is it the games I'm choosing?

[Bodarc]

First of all MJ it is not a good game. The same kind of games I have around here. One thing I have learned is that different dealers will give you different cuts. Find one that cuts thin and stick with them. By that I mean casually ask them what days they work and try to schedule your trips on days they will be there.

I have never played in a lot of locations so I don't know anything about heat such as you describe. If you can't get a better spread than 1-4 it is going to be a long drawn out process I think.

What do you mean the pit bosses are all over you? What are they doing?