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Thread: Blackjack tournament frustration

  1. #1
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    Blackjack tournament frustration

    There have been so many tournament invites for me this year I can't go to all of them. I have read all of Gron's stuff and using his suggestions have been able to have anywhere from a 25% chance to advance, usually to the finals, to a 90+% chance to advance. The last tournament was a big one and I had a terrible round bet despite of being in 5th place way behind the leaders I had a 48% chance of advancing when the dealer played the final hand. I didn't make it again. Adding up the around 10 near misses I should have advanced at least a few times. That is both encouraging and very frustrating. My next one is a juicy one. Top prize isn't too large but very small field of invites that are pretty clueless judging by my previous participation in the tournament. You start in the semis. Hopefully this will be the one that brings some money my way this year. Like I said I have had over a 90% chance of cashing on the last hand of the round and 48%, 60+%, 45%, a number of times in the 25-35% range (total to 100% chance) and a few in the slim chance range on either side of 10% (total to a 30% chance). These all would have resulted in a cashing in by making the final table that payed all that made the finals or making the final table if it was a winner take all. The expectation totals 273%, meaning I should have made 2 or 3 final tables. I only had a few tournaments that I died quickly.

    I would lie to thank Gron for his help. Hopefully the odds will come in line with expectation soon.
    Last edited by Three; 07-24-2014 at 01:18 PM.

  2. #2


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    I'd like to express my BJ tourney frustration too. We simply don't have any up here, and when we do, my invite always gets lost

  3. #3
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    In the several BJ tournaments that I have participated in I have to say that I am disappointed with the way the casinos structure BJ tournaments. At least the few tournaments that I have played in. The tournaments reminded me of that UBT show that they had on TV where it really becomes a cycle of repeat buy-ins for people chasing the top prize if you don't happen to win the first stage of the tournament by having the most chips after a set amount of hands.
    Last edited by Blitzkrieg; 07-24-2014 at 07:36 AM.

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    I would lie to thank Gron for his help. Hopefully the odds will come in line with expectation soon.
    Thanks for this. I don't post much, because I do so only when I think I may have something more to offer than is already being discussed. When it comes to tournaments, that's usually when I feel I have something to offer. If I have helped you or anyone else, I'm glad.

    I feel your pain. Tourneys are a high variance beast and, as with other AP endeavors, there are times when, despite your strategic advantage, you will experience long periods sub-EV performance in the form of near misses or of not being in it at all, despite making all the right moves. Of course, it also goes the other way. Even worse than bad luck at the critical moment is making a costly error at that moment, so the key is to be ready to make the best bet and/or play when the time comes. Just keep applying what you know and your strategic advantage will eventually reward you.

    Many times I have wished I had someone to vent to during these periods who would understand. When I explain just how unlikely a particular loss was to my wife, her eyes just glaze over. I see a bit of trend developing here though. Perhaps you and KJ are on to something! That's not a shot at either of you. I enjoy reading your posts!

  5. #5


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    With 25% chance of advancing it seems like it'd be good to have
    partner(s).

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by Gronbog View Post
    Thanks for this. I don't post much, because I do so only when I think I may have something more to offer than is already being discussed. When it comes to tournaments, that's usually when I feel I have something to offer. If I have helped you or anyone else, I'm glad.

    I feel your pain. Tourneys are a high variance beast and, as with other AP endeavors, there are times when, despite your strategic advantage, you will experience long periods sub-EV performance in the form of near misses or of not being in it at all, despite making all the right moves. Of course, it also goes the other way. Even worse than bad luck at the critical moment is making a costly error at that moment, so the key is to be ready to make the best bet and/or play when the time comes. Just keep applying what you know and your strategic advantage will eventually reward you.

    Many times I have wished I had someone to vent to during these periods who would understand. When I explain just how unlikely a particular loss was to my wife, her eyes just glaze over. I see a bit of trend developing here though. Perhaps you and KJ are on to something! That's not a shot at either of you. I enjoy reading your posts!
    Hey Gronbog, now that I've joined this forum I offer my services as someone to vent to!

  7. #7


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    Best done over a beer or ten next time I see you!

  8. #8


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    Gron,

    Can you share the link to your stuff? I also want to move from a 25% chance to advance to 90+%.

    Thanks!

  9. #9


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    When Tthree refers to "Gron's stuff" I believe that he is simply referring to posts that I have made here and at blackjacktournaments.com regarding tournament play. I also believe that any situation in which he has managed a 90% advancement rate would have to be a very special situation. I am aware of the details of some of the events that Tthree plays, and I have some idea which event he may be referring to, but I'll leave it to him to comment if he wants to.

  10. #10
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    I guess enough time has elapsed to say my frustration ended. I cashed in a fairly big tournament. I had the lead at the final table going into the last hand but pushed the hand. I didn't take first place but did win one of the top prizes.

    I had a bigger one where I was in the semis with a one chip lead needing to win the table to move on. I bet all but that chip. Everyone else went all in. I had the high and the low covered and the guy that would play ahead of me one chip down says "Sh*t you made the perfect bet . I need to get a BJ now." He says to the dealer, "Give me a blackjack." I guess you can guess the rest. He scored a BJ and advanced before the hand was played out.

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