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Thread: Am I playing the right game or it is just variances?

  1. #1


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    Am I playing the right game or it is just variances?

    I was playing DD deck with H17,DAS,RSA with 75% penetration in Las Vegas at the Palace Station. I did a simulation in CVCX with 1-6 bet spread play all. The SCORE is about 77.99, %W/L, 1.390 the N0 to overcome one standard deviation is 12822 with heads up play on $5 minimum table with $1600 it contains a ROR of 13.5%. I lose $1000 in three days of play I keep busting in the stiff hands, losing on most of the double downs and splits. I remember when I split a ten vs dealers up card of 6 at a TC of 6 the dealer pull a three card 21. There was one day when I split 10 vs 5 four times at TC of 10 and the dealer still made a hand. Keeps getting a low card on the double downs when the count say to double. I deviation my bet according to the count but just can't get ahead. Counting using the TKO system

    I want to know if I am playing a favorable game or am I just gambling???

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by seriousplayer View Post
    I lose $1000 in three days of play I keep busting in the stiff hands, losing on most of the double downs and splits. I remember when I split a ten vs dealers up card of 6 at a TC of 6 the dealer pull a three card 21. There was one day when I split 10 vs 5 four times at TC of 10 and the dealer still made a hand. Keeps getting a low card on the double downs when the count say to double.
    Even the strongest approaches will get killed when these things happen. The game sounds reasonable enough to keep playing if heat isn't too bad. Your spread is polite enough not to scare most casinos. If the place is sweaty there is nothing they would like better than to back off an AP that has lost a lot of money. You are playing a pretty high RoR so streaks like this that last a long time can invite ruin if you don't recalculate your spread to maintain a 13.5% RoR. That high of RoR gives optimal BR growth but constant resizing after losses must be used to keep your RoR from getting any higher. If you have the BR most people would probably choose a much smaller RoR, like maybe 5%.

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    seriously??? if you are regularly splitting tens, why on earth are you only spreading 1-6??? should be winning, but better yet try doubling that spread (as a min) and see what you get.

    rules are similar to a game i regularly play so the hose edge is <.5% so you are marginally ahead beginning at +1...problem with dd is that you don't want to play with more than 1 other player (2 max)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    Even the strongest approaches will get killed when these things happen. The game sounds reasonable enough to keep playing if heat isn't too bad. Your spread is polite enough not to scare most casinos. If the place is sweaty there is nothing they would like better than to back off an AP that has lost a lot of money. You are playing a pretty high RoR so streaks like this that last a long time can invite ruin if you don't recalculate your spread to maintain a 13.5% RoR. That high of RoR gives optimal BR growth but constant resizing after losses must be used to keep your RoR from getting any higher. If you have the BR most people would probably choose a much smaller RoR, like maybe 5%.
    Thank you for the reply. 13.5% is just my trip bankroll my total bankroll is around 5%-7% for that week of play since I don't left the other half at home. Anyhow I want to know am I playing the right game or am I just gaming.
    Last edited by seriousplayer; 07-23-2014 at 08:47 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sharky View Post
    seriously??? if you are regularly splitting tens, why on earth are you only spreading 1-6??? should be winning, but better yet try doubling that spread (as a min) and see what you get.

    rules are similar to a game i regularly play so the hose edge is <.5% so you are marginally ahead beginning at +1...problem with dd is that you don't want to play with more than 1 other player (2 max)
    I am spreading 1-6 is because I want to avoid heat from the casino.

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    ...but splitting 10s vs 5/6....haha...good luck with that approach

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sharky View Post
    ...but splitting 10s vs 5/6....haha...good luck with that approach
    I split 10 vs 5/6 about 3-4 times I lost about two times. So losing already is a cover.

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    losing just sucks, but don't confuse it with cover, been thrown out while down a bunch...keep splitting them if you are getting away with it...one of the most powerful index plays...imagine someone offering you a game where half the cards are 10s and As and they say i will give you two hands of 10 each to start and i will start with a 5/6...if then they ask you how miuch you want to bet?...tell them as much as you'll let me..

    btw, should also be using ace side count for dd

    good luck

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    Quote Originally Posted by seriousplayer View Post
    I split 10 vs 5/6 about 3-4 times I lost about two times. So losing already is a cover.
    I think you are worrying too much about heat at the $5 and $10 level. Your max bet would be under $100 and really, I do not think they care. I used to be paranoid about heat and looking back, it is silly. You should be easily able to spread 1-10 if you are playing the $10 tables. I usually cash in $200 and ask for 4 greens with the red chips. Then, I can slide one or two greens under some red chips at the $10 table when the count is high.

    I believe they think that 90% of card counters are losers, would not have the courage to bet big at high counts, do not have the BR to win and while it may take longer they will eventually grind you down. They would rather keep you playing there.

    Finally, we need to be honest with ourselves. In my case, while i used to tell myself it is heat, I actually hated to go over a 1-6 spread.You have slowly been winning without putting on a max bet and then you put in a $100 or so and you lose that bet, it feels terrible. I was not betting big because I did not want to lose that much money on a single hand and go from positive to negative so quickly. If this is the case, get over it, be comfortable after a losing session and the winn9ing session and the big wins will follow.

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    Quote Originally Posted by seriousplayer View Post
    I am spreading 1-6 is because I want to avoid heat from the casino.
    I've played there quite a bit spreading 1-10 with green chips. I don't split tens and keep my sessions under 45 minutes and have only felt a little bit of heat. Mostly they try really hard to get me to get a players card and I always refuse.

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    Sharky is right on! However, I suggest you do stop splitting tens.

    O

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    Quote Originally Posted by KronikBuddha View Post
    I've played there quite a bit spreading 1-10 with green chips. I don't split tens and keep my sessions under 45 minutes and have only felt a little bit of heat. Mostly they try really hard to get me to get a players card and I always refuse.
    You know that they are still tracking your play right? Playing unrated doesn't mean you are off the radar. At green to black level, they are still tracking your play most places, and definitely at Palace Station. If you are an unknown, they will assign a name, handle, or code word to you for that day, often something descriptive relating to what you are wearing or a tattoo, etc. If you play regularly, they will assign a more permanent code name or handle, and if they have done a little work, that code name/handle might just be your real name.

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    Yeah, I know they still are tracking me. At my local casino I played unrated for about six months. I finally gave in and got a card when I found out they had my full name already and were tracking me with it. Might as well get the comps at that point. I'm not worried about palace station though, I only play in vegas a couple time a year.

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