Why don't more people AP?

[houyi]

I recently went to a casino with some coworkers. The two guys I went with are, by all appearances, as intelligent as I am, with roughly equivalent (or perhaps even greater) liquid assets. They also enjoy going to the casino greatly, again perhaps more than I myself do. They are both aware that counting exists, and I have told them many times it is a rather simple skill to learn. They remain, however, complete ploppies, with one simply going by gut instinct and not even following basic strategy. In your experience, why do such people exist? They both enjoy making money and are successful investors in other more traditional areas. Is it just a cheap thrill to them or perhaps a belief that counting does not actually work? Is counting actually more complicated than I believe and myself and the APs I know just are naturally talented at it?

As a correlation to this, with a sufficient bankroll, counting provides a long term return that is incredibly difficult to match (albeit limited on the extreme upward spectrum). With knowledge of counting and to a lesser extent, other AP strategies, so widespread, why isn't counting used as a viable investment by more people? Trust issues? Skepticism? Or is investing in AP more widespread than I believe?

Interested in all of your takes.

[code red]

Some people look at blackjack as entertainment. Only people who are actually wanting to profit should use AP strategies, but then you have the people who think it's too time consuming which simply labels them as a gambler. It all boils down to money management. Sadly, very few have this quality.

[Three]

If you ever worked in a resort town and listened to the tourists, there is an overwhelming majority that measure the fun they had by how much money the blew through. It is a gauge that can be measured exactly. Often times memories of event are fuzzy on vacations but the money left behind is obvious even to the most out of touch person.

[RS]

People like having fun which usually means getting loaded. AP is, for the most part, not fun.

[bigplayer]

They are lazy and they go to casinos for more primal reasons than intellectual ones.

[RS]

I take back what I said above. Well, not take back, just expand in a slightly different direction.

Everyone enjoys different things. You find yourself in different situations than others because you enjoy different things. Had a never googled "how to count cards", I likely would not be where I am today. We enjoy counting cards and think it's ridiculous that people would wager money in a game where they have a disadvantage & have no idea what they're doing. We master this because this is what we enjoy.

Other people master different things. Have you ever played an online video game where other players are really really good? They've mastered something they enjoy. They likely see you playing and think, "Wow, why would this guy play this game if he isn't going to spend the time to learn it properly?" The reason is, we don't care to master a video game, we play it because we enjoy playing it for fun.

Someone who is really good at basketball might think, "Why would this guy play basketball if he's not going to put in the time and effort to learn how to properly dribble the ball, do a jump-shot, or a layup?" We don't play basketball competitively, we play it for fun. Or a chess player might think "Why would he play chess if he won't learn proper chess strategy?" We play for fun.

The thought of mastering chess, basketball, or gardening has probably never even crossed your mind, just like playing with an advantage has not crossed many people's minds when it comes to gambling (beyond a simple understanding that card counting exists,,,,,just like how we understand that there are "proper" ways to play basketball/chess and garden...but we don't delve into those topics because we don't care about them).

We see a ploppy and think "What an idiot!" when in reality, he doesn't care to master the game, he's just there for fun. [I'm excluding degenerates in this case. Talking about occasional gamblers.]

[ahjooma]

I think it's hard emotionally - the swings.
i haven't been at it long, but that is the hardest part for me.
there is also a belief that only the genius MIT types can make money
doing this. (I know That many of you are)
When I told a few people that I am doing this,
they thought I was just a deluded degenerate gambler - not exactly
those words, but they implied it. Some, especially ladies I know
have a snooty attitude that they don't want to be around "those
kind of people".

[Skull]

Based only on my recent studies and NO actual casino experience, it seems to me that counting <em>per se</em> may be considered somewhat simple (although I think that most of the people who even consider doing it are above average in terms of math), but making it a long-term investment does not seem to be simple at all. Only the sheer fact that you need to commit many hundreds of hours per year to "manage" your investment shows it is not simple. Also, in order to make it really long-term, you need to think of so many things and be perfect in so many things that I can clearly see the lack of fun in doing it. Just go there, drink, shout, risk, have fun!! Much better than counting, simulating, deceiving, worrying, registering, acting, managing, reading a lot, etc... specially when you can (pretend to) trust a good financial manager and just let him do the hard work while making some (very few) key decisions per year. I think there are few thing less fun than attempting (or dreaming to attempt) such a mind-blowing deed like beating the casinos in their own game in the 21st century, but I do understand why most people simply thinki it is a nonsensical endeavor.

[njrich]

I likely would not be where I am today.

Broke , Busted , and Disgusted ?

[mjbballar23]

I recently went to a casino with some coworkers. The two guys I went with are, by all appearances, as intelligent as I am, with roughly equivalent (or perhaps even greater) liquid assets. They also enjoy going to the casino greatly, again perhaps more than I myself do. They are both aware that counting exists, and I have told them many times it is a rather simple skill to learn. They remain, however, complete ploppies, with one simply going by gut instinct and not even following basic strategy. In your experience, why do such people exist? They both enjoy making money and are successful investors in other more traditional areas. Is it just a cheap thrill to them or perhaps a belief that counting does not actually work? Is counting actually more complicated than I believe and myself and the APs I know just are naturally talented at it?

As a correlation to this, with a sufficient bankroll, counting provides a long term return that is incredibly difficult to match (albeit limited on the extreme upward spectrum). With knowledge of counting and to a lesser extent, other AP strategies, so widespread, why isn't counting used as a viable investment by more people? Trust issues? Skepticism? Or is investing in AP more widespread than I believe?

Interested in all of your takes.

AP takes a lot of the "fun" out of the game. I also think its a personality thing. Advantage play either clicks with people or it doesn't. I have several friends who i think could be outstanding players. They are interested and love hearing about how it all works but when it comes down to it they are either afraid to risk any money or aren't willing to put in the time.

[Zach Black]

I watched a 60 minutes interview of Steve Wynn when it first came out. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tZeCVDpmEYE This story focuses on Wynn's successful history building mega casinos. It also tells how his father was a compulsive gambler that left a gambling debt of 350k.

At 2:57 starts a discussion about gamblers.

The interviewer makes a statement " The only way to win in a casino is to own a casino" . Wynn quickly confirms while laughing.

The next question was " Have you ever known a gambler that wins big and walks with the money." Wynn quickly and said "never".

The third question " You know nobody hardly over stretch of time that is ahead?" Wynn said "nope".


I happened to watch this with my parents when I first I viewed it. My parents know that I am a card counter and that I've been backed off by several casinos. We discussed if Wynn is trying to deceive the public or if he truly believed his statements in this interview.

My parents don't fully understand AP, thought that Wynn's game protection likely prevents anyone from being a big winner over a long time period. (Wynn's idea of big must be at least 7 figures)

So back to the question why don't more people AP? Most people believe the casino can't be beat, gambling is at best entertainment, and at worst a terrible vice. Advantage play is often confused with cheating by the general public.

[houyi]

AP takes a lot of the "fun" out of the game. I also think its a personality thing. Advantage play either clicks with people or it doesn't. I have several friends who i think could be outstanding players. They are interested and love hearing about how it all works but when it comes down to it they are either afraid to risk any money or aren't willing to put in the time.

That's been my experience as well. Perhaps it's also a discipline thing. I know when I first started, I had a very strong urge to try to make every session a winning one, so I would overbet my bankroll at times to try to make up for my losses before it came time to leave. I went nearly busto with 10 K-ish bankrolls twice before it hit me to either do things right or not do it all. Probably a bunch of aspiring APs went through similar stuff and just never recovered.

[Norm]

You don't have to become a pro to like sex.