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Thread: Positive Variance for a Year....any thoughts?

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    Positive Variance for a Year....any thoughts?

    Hi all, althogh I don't post much, I'm a regular reader of this forum. Thank you all for your insight, I have learned a lot, especially from the veteran players who have so much wisdom about the AP world.

    Here's my situation. I've been "green chippin" for the last two years. During the last year, analyzing my results, I have had a positive variance run accounting for pretty much 90% of my playing sessions. The actual numbers are what they are...but just wondering if anyone else has experienced a positive variance wave this long (at least I think it's long). I play an average of 7 hrs a week.

    Although I'm always "prepared for the worst", with all this pos variance I'm afraid I'm bracing myself for a tsunami coming my way to "even things out". Any thoughts?

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    You aren't "due" to have a correction. It doesn't work that way but you will not always win. You are talking about a 364 hour run. I have had similar runs without losing in an almost 3 month period of much more regular play and yes I did lose a ton in a short time afterwards but these swings are all part of the game. They can be broken up in any order. I had the misfortune of hitting my downswing right after upping my spread and started winning again right after needing to draw back down to the previous spread to get to a reasonable RoR.

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    Senior Member bigplayer's Avatar
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    Results don't swing back to normal. If you flip coins for a lifetime and your first flip is Heads, over your entire lifetime if you continue to flip coins the odds are that you will have one more heads than tails when you stop flipping upon your death...in the short term (on your first flip) that means your result is 100% heads and 0% tails, but by the end of your life odds if results hold true to form you'll be 50.0000000000000000000001% heads and 49.999999999999999999999999% tails. It's the sample size (the denominator) in the probability equation that makes short term results meaningless, not the numerator.

    Likewise, with Blackjack, if you start the year off on a tear and are winning like crazy, it's very likely that by the end of the year you'll still be above EV. But by the end of your life the sample size will have gotten large enough that that early big win you had at the start of 2014 will become meaningless.
    Last edited by bigplayer; 04-15-2014 at 11:40 AM.

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    Senior Member Bodarc's Avatar
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    On a two year pos ev and not looking back!!$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

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    Quote Originally Posted by SURFER View Post
    On a two year pos ev and not looking back!!$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
    That's great but he was talking positive variance not positive EV. Hopefully we all play plus EV but positive variance is on the plus side of our positive expectation.

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    hey hita, max here. did we meet in vegas?

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    Quote Originally Posted by max85 View Post
    hey hita, max here. did we meet in vegas?
    Hey max85, YES!..it's me. btw, i've been back since, and i just got spanked with some neg variance!...LOL

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    mate i heard from C...bugger. my email is [email protected], happy to chat anytime

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