Recent Blogs Posts

1. Risk, Ruin, and Trip-Stake Wipeout by Bryce Carlson

by , 03-08-2013 at 04:48 PM
There's hardly anything more discouraging than traveling hundreds or thousands of miles to a prime casino destination, spending hundreds or thousands of dollars on airfare, food and lodging, only to have your entire trip stake wiped out by a bad run of cards because you didn't adequately anticipate your true playing cash needs. That really hurts. Big-time.

Now, of course, no matter how carefully or conservatively you calculate your trip stake, once in a great while a sustained run ...

Updated 05-11-2013 at 01:37 PM by Bryce Carlson

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2. Small error and the wonders of technology..

by
brh
, 02-27-2013 at 11:04 PM
In my re-derivation of the Patrick Sileo result ROR = e^(-2Bank/EKB) in my version of the Optimal Betting Spread proof found here

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/...ng_Spreads.pdf , some tinkering with my WolframAlpha App on my Ipad I discovered a pleasing error.

The offending expression was that equation (75) was that the quantity Y = e^2 + O(1/sqrt(n0)). I was playing with the expression (75) using Mathematica online, and it actually gave me the expansion
...
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3. Signs that you are counting cards

by , 01-29-2013 at 10:11 AM (Modern Blackjack nth Edition)
Bill Zender’s excellent books talk to advantage play from the casino perspective. This is important to our side as we need to know how the casino side thinks. It is more important to know how the casino identifies an advantage player than it is to know how to accurately identify an advantage player. As many casino execs have read Bill’s books or attended his presentations, his work is valuable to us. Fortunately, a brief discussion by Bill on card counter identification is available online at: http://casinosurveillancenews.com/tr...nter-detection
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Blackjack General
4. Partly agreeing with Blackjack Avenger Part 2:

by
brh
, 10-28-2012 at 10:27 AM
Originally Posted by brh
Originally Posted by brh
Thanks Gramazeka, I need these results for another thread:

I am interested in the case where the Kelly bettor sets their goal at Infinity.

1. Prob [Bank reaches "b", before loosing "a"](k) = [1-a^(1-2/k)]/[b^(1-2/k) - a^(1-2/k)]

If lim b-> infinity (k<2),
Prob [Inf,a](k) = [1-a^(1-2/k)]/[ 0 - a^(1-2/k) ]

= - [1-a^(1-2/k)]/[ a^(1-2/k) ]

= 1 - a^(2/k-1)
...
Tags: kellyresizingror
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5. Kelly betting on high variance games

by
brh
, 10-28-2012 at 09:59 AM
Originally Posted by brh
Originally Posted by Matt21
I have actually asked a similar question on the old bjinfo but wanted to revisit this as I found some conflicting answers.

Generally speaking, when betting full Kelly you divide the edge% by the pay-off a winning bet to arrive at the % of your bankroll that you should wager on your bet.

Does this apply equally regardless whether your pay-off is 1:1, 5:1, 10:1, 50:1 or 100:1? Does this rule of thumb change if you are playing with a high edge (say 30% or 40% as an example).
...
Tags: kellyror
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